Keys to the Game: Washington Commanders at Houston Texans

Washington Commanders (-3) at Houston Texans

Kickoff 1pm, NRG Stadium 

The Washington Commanders travel to Houston, Texas for a Week 11 interconference matchup. 

Winners of four of the last five games, the Commanders are looking to solidify their standing in the NFC playoff picture. The team currently sits at 5-5 and a half-game behind the seventh seed San Francisco 49ers (5-4). With a 49ers loss against the Cardinals this weekend, and a Commanders win, Washington would move into the final playoff spot with six weeks remaining. 

In front of them stands the Houston Texans, who have lost four straight games. Coincidentally, November is the NFC East gauntlet for the Texans as they will play three straight games against this division. Houston began November with a 17-29 loss at the Philadelphia Eagles. The following week they lost to the New York Giants, in the Meadowlands, 16-24. This week, they host the Commanders.

Below you will find a preview of tomorrow’s game, with an emphasis on the Commanders. What are the keys to victory? Keep reading to find out. 

Keys to the Offense

The Commanders have found a familiar formula over the last five weeks, and I anticipate them sticking to it. The formula is pounding the rock with their running back duo and playing sound defense. Over the last five games, Washington has surpassed 200 yards passing only once, against the Indianapolis Colts (266 yards). This number is actually skewed, considering 42 of these yards came on a Terry McLaurin desperation heave by Taylor Heinicke late in the game. 

Washington has been dominated in the running game over the last month and I’d expect the trend to continue. In their last four wins, Washington has run the ball 28, 38, 28 and 49 times, respectively. It has mostly been a combination of positive game script, and masking the deficiencies of their pass blocking. 

This plays right into the hands of what they need to do against the Texans. According to Football Outsiders, the Texans have the 31st ranked defense in terms of DVOA at 9.3%. Meaning, relative to the other 31 teams, the Texans allow 9% more yards and points on rush plays than other teams. 

Washington should slam the ball down the Texans’ throats. Especially considering the Texans have the league’s worst rush defense in terms of yards. The Texans have allowed the opponents to rush the ball 312 times (32) for 1,636 yards (32). This should be a prime Antonio Gibson or Brian Robinson Game.

The Commanders duo rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles on Monday Night. It appears to be the team’s identity moving forward.

Keys to the Defense

In terms of defense, Washington’s focus should be on limiting Dameon Pierce. The University of Florida product has tallied 772 rushing yards and 22 receptions for 126 yards. His rushing yard total places him at sixth in the league, behind Aaron Jones (778) and ahead of Justin Fields (749). Pro Football Focus (PFF) also has Pierce rated as the league’s fifth best rusher with an 88.4 rushing grade. 

Luckily for Washington, the interior of Houston’s offensive line is a mess. Left guard Kenyon Green has struggled tremendously this season with a 28.4 pass blocking grade according to PFF. His running mates at center, Scott Quessenberry (27.9 pass blocking grade) and right guard A.J. Cann (66.4) aren’t stellar either. This should be a plus-matchup for Jon Allen and Daron Payne. The pair of tackles from Alabama have been a menace this year, and are finally getting national acclaim. Allen has posted 4.5 sacks this season, while Payne has added 5.5 sacks. Payne especially has had a great season with 13 tackles for loss and a safety. 

This chaos upfront shouldn’t bode well for Texans QB Davis Mills who ranks in the lower-third of the league in most metrics. 

Prediction 

Altogether, the plan is laid out right in front of Washington. With a weak Texans front, the Commanders should maintain their emphasis on the run game. Washington should emphasize efficient football and feed their playmakers, such as McLaurin, on third down plays.

On defense, the Commanders simply need to limit Pierce from having a great rushing day. This would limit the Texans offense and make them one dimensional, and with a weak offensive line, Washington should be able to generate pressure.

I have the Commanders taking command early in this game, and riding to a victory, 24-10.