The Goal-Line Guide Week 13 is attempting to help turn your luck around by predicting touchdown production.
The Goal-Line Guide series takes a look at touchdown production from inside the 5-yard line. With an equal emphasis placed on both offensive and defensive efficiency, the goal of the guide is meant to determine which teams are most likely to score touchdowns on a weekly basis, and also how they will score. As you will notice in the table below, I divide my Goal-Line Grades into separate Rushing and Passing scores.
The method for which I use to create these Goal-line Grades is as follows. First, I look at each offenses’ touchdown production inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. An important facet is the fact that I split these numbers into rushing and passing touchdowns.
Next, I look at each team’s defenses. Specifically, how often those units allow touchdowns inside their own 5-yard line. Again, this is divided into rushing and passing plays. Then I pair the matchups, with each team’s offense alongside their opponent’s defense for that week.
After that, I add in each offense’s implied total set by the oddsmakers. The logic there is the teams with the highest projected point totals are most likely to be in the red zone more often, and naturally more likely to score more touchdowns.
Finally, next to each team’s grades, I created a column indicating the disparity between each offense’s running and passing scores. I also showcase which phase has the better chance of producing touchdowns. All of those steps combined create the Goal-Line Grades that you are about see.
Goal-Line Guide Week 13
|Team||Rushing GLG||Passing GLG||Difference|
|Atlanta Falcons||61||64.5||Pass + 3.5|
|Baltimore Ravens||56||59||Pass + 3|
|Buffalo Bills||48||69.5||Pass + 21.5|
|Chicago Bears||55.25||56.25||Pass + 1|
|Cincinnati Bengals||66.25||60.75||Run + 5.5|
|Cleveland Browns||74.75||49.75||Run + 25|
|Dallas Cowboys||73.5||86||Pass + 12.5|
|Denver Broncos||67||41||Run + 26|
|Detroit Lions||77.75||66.75||Run + 11|
|Green Bay Packers||55.25||83.25||Pass + 28|
|Houston Texans||61.75||68.25||Pass + 6.5|
|Indianapolis Colts||68.5||64.5||Run + 4|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||62.25||71.75||Pass + 9.5|
|Kansas City Chiefs||66.75||72.25||Pass + 5.5|
|Las Vegas Raiders||62.5||52||Run + 10.5|
|Los Angeles Chargers||79||47.25||Run + 31.75|
|Los Angeles Rams||52.75||58.75||Pass + 6|
|Miami Dolphins||69.5||54||Run + 15.5|
|Minnesota Vikings||74.25||62.75||Pass + 12.5|
|New England Patriots||58.5||56.5||Run + 2|
|New Orleans Saints||75.75||66.75||Run + 9|
|New York Giants||59.5||44.5||Run + 15|
|New York Jets||70.75||83.25||Pass + 12.5|
|Philadelphia Eagles||62||53.5||Run + 8.5|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||72||51||Run + 21|
|San Francisco 49ers||56.5||73.5||Pass + 17|
|Seattle Seahawks||64.75||80.75||Pass + 16|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||70.75||66.75||Run + 4|
|Tennessee Titans||61||69||Pass + 8|
|Washington Commanders||64||49.5||Run + 14.5|
The Biggest Differences
Los Angeles Chargers
Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 79
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Passing Goal-Line Grade: 47.25
The Goal-Line Guide Week 13 shockingly has the Chargers with an electric total. They appear poised to strike on the ground inside the scoring zone. The Bolts have the highest Rushing Goal-Line Grade of the week with a score of 79. And since their passing grade is the 3rd worst overall, the Chargers represent the largest difference (31.75) between grades in Week 13. This is a primary reason for me having Austin Ekeler as the RB #1 in my weekly rankings.
A major factor for such an immense disparity in goal-line grades is the Chargers’ opponent this week. The Raiders defense has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns on running plays inside their own 5-yard line. That is the 2nd most in the entire NFL. Furthermore, Las Vegas’ 67% rate of surrendering scores on the ground near the goal-line is the highest in the league. Look for Ekeler to find pay dirt in this upcoming contest.
Green Bay Packers
Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 55.25
Passing Goal-Line Grade: 83.25
It is the oldest rivalry in the NFL. And as the Packers are about to come visit Chicago, the Bears appear ready to play the role of a gracious host. Chicago’s defense has surrendered touchdowns on 70% of passing plays inside their own 5-yard line. That is tied for the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. For Week 13, this results in Green Bay having the 2nd largest disparity in Goal-Line Grades as their passing score is 28 points higher than their ground grade.
The timing is perhaps ideal for the Packers as they face an uncertain quarterback situation this week. Should Jordan Love get the start, he will have the benefit of a favorable matchup in the red zone. Regardless of who is under center for Green Bay, I expect both Allen Lazard and Christian Watson to be heavily targeted, especially near the goal-line. The other main weapon in the arial attack is running back Aaron Jones, who I still consider to be top 12 at the position.
Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 67
Passing Goal-Line Grade: 41
For Week 13, the Broncos lay claim to the worst overall Goal-Line Grade for their arial attack. With a passing score of 41, Denver’s chances of scoring short-yardage touchdowns through the air are diminished. Truth be told, that has been the situation for the Broncos most of the season. With only a 20% touchdown rate of throws inside their opponent’s 5-yard line, Denver is right alongside the Colts for the lowest rate in the NFL.
To give some credit to the Broncos, 41 represents the highest grade considered a worst for the week. Just look back to last week where the lowest score was 26.25, much worse than Denver’s this time around. Still, the Broncos player I would most want to start in fantasy this week is running back Latavius Murray. After all, his former team (and upcoming opponent), the Ravens, have surrendered touchdowns on 57% of rushing plays inside their own 5-yard line. That is the 8th highest rate in the league.
Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 73.5
Passing Goal-Line Grade: 86
Once again, the best overall Goal-Line Grade of Week 13 belongs to the Cowboys. This is the 5th time since Week 8 that Dallas has that distinction. However, 86 is the lowest grade to lead a week all season. Couple that with the Broncos 41 being the worst score of the week, and the Goal-Line Guide is getting further away from the outliers. Everything is condensing towards the middle giving a better read of the situation. The Goal-Line guide should continue to get better and better are predicting touchdown production.
With regards to the Cowboys players, I expect Dak Prescott to be started in most lineups. Furthermore, I have both CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz ranking the top 5 at their respective positions this week. Consider that the Dallas Rushing Goal-Line Grade is at 73.5 (an above average score), I would also feel safe playing both running backs in the matchup.
Thank you for reading Goal-Line Guide Week 13. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.
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