As we approach the fantasy football playoffs, Goal-Line Guide Week 14 is an even more important tool to help predict touchdown production.
Goal-Line Guide Week 14
|Team||Rushing GLG||Passing GLG||Difference|
|Arizona Cardinals||53.25||58.75||Pass + 5.5|
|Baltimore Ravens||54.75||57.25||Pass + 2.5|
|Buffalo Bills||78||60||Run + 18|
|Carolina Panthers||61.5||53.5||Run + 8|
|Cincinnati Bengals||71||61||Run + 10|
|Cleveland Browns||70.5||53.5||Run + 17|
|Dallas Cowboys||79.5||76.5||Run + 3|
|Denver Broncos||64.5||44||Run + 20.5|
|Detroit Lions||75.75||71.25||Run + 4.5|
|Houston Texans||61.5||71.5||Pass + 10|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||55.5||61.5||Pass + 6|
|Kansas City Chiefs||59||70.5||Pass + 11.5|
|Las Vegas Raiders||58.25||62.25||Pass + 4|
|Los Angeles Chargers||61.25||79.75||Pass + 18.5|
|Los Angeles Rams||77.25||57.75||Run + 19.5|
|Miami Dolphins||73.75||59.75||Run + 14|
|Minnesota Vikings||77.25||76.25||Run + 1|
|New England Patriots||65.25||66.25||Pass + 1|
|New York Giants||59.5||49||Run + 10.5|
|New York Jets||51.5||56.5||Pass + 5|
|Philadelphia Eagles||75.5||51||Run + 24.5|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||80.25||49.75||Run + 30.5|
|San Francisco 49ers||59.5||60||Pass + 0.5|
|Seattle Seahawks||68||87||Pass + 19|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||53.5||56.5||Pass + 3|
|Tennessee Titans||86||76||Run + 10|
Running The Table
This week, the four biggest differences in a team’s Goal-Line Grades all favor the ground game. Here are those four teams.
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Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 80.25
Passing Goal-Line Grade: 49.75
With a Rushing Goal-Line Grade of 80.25, the Steelers actually have the 3rd best score overall in Week 14. This coincides with a Pittsburgh passing scores of 49.75, the overall 3rd worst on the week. As a result, the Steelers also own the largest disparity between their two Goal-Line Grades of any team at +30.5 for the rushing attack.
Pittsburgh’s offense is just as responsible for this as the defensive matchup. The Steelers have scored touchdowns on 64% of their runs inside the 5-yard line. Compare that to only a 29% touchdown rate near the goal-line, and you can see that the team best recipe for success is to give Najee Harris the ball near the end zone. In addition to that, the Ravens have allowed touchdowns on 57% of rushing attempts inside their own 5-yard line. Almost double the 31% touchdown rate they surrender on goal-line passing attempts.
Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 75.5
Passing Goal-Line Grade: 51
Jalen Hurts is the type of quarterbacks that frankly is not hurt when playing against a weak rushing defense. His ability to run the football gives him a solid fantasy football floor. And the touchdown upside he provides both through the air and on the ground offers a ceiling unmatched by most quarterbacks. So when I see a Passing Goal-Line Grade of 51, I don’t panic with Hurts as much as I might with other signal-callers. Instead, I embrace the rushing score of 75.5 and I ranked Hurts as my QB # 1 for Week 14.
Looking at the matchup, we see the Giants defeense allows a higher touchdown rate on rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line (50%) than it does through the air (33%). So in addition to Hurts, I also expect other Eagles rushing options can succeed. Because if this, I consider Miles Sanders to be a top 10 running back on the week.
Los Angeles Rams
Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 77.25
Passing Goal-Line Grade: 57.75
The return of Cam Akers as a viable fantasy starter comes at an opportune time. In Week 14 the Rams face a Raiders defense which has surrendered touchdowns on 67% of rushing attempts inside their own 5-yard line. That is the highest rate in the entire NFL. Consider the quarterback uncertainty, and the injuries to key receivers, Akers is the only Rams players I truly want to start this week.
Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 64.5
Passing Goal-Line Grade: 44
As was the case last week, the Broncos hold the lowest overall Goal-Line Grade. With a passing score of 44, Denver’s league average Rushing Goal-Line Grade of 64 looks a lot better. A 20% touchdown rate on passing attempts inside the 5-yard line is the main culprit behind the low rushing grade. This gives me little confidence in the Broncos passing attack And as I mentioned last week, Latavius Murray is the only Denver player I want to start.
Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 86
The Titans have the best Rushing Goal-Line Grade in Week 14 with a score of 86. Because their passing grade is 76, the disparity is not as large as the teams mentioned beforehand. However the high score of 86 was enough for me to crown king Derrick Henry as the RB #1 in my rankings. However, an 86 falls just 1 point shy of the Week 14 lead.
Passing Goal-Line Grade: 87
The distinction of best overall Goal-Line Grade belongs to the Seahawks. With a score of 87, they just narrowly passed Tennessee for the claim. I expect the Seahawks passing game to have a lot of success against the Panthers. So much so that I have Geno Smith ranked as QB #5 for the week. Furthermore, I have four of his pass-catchers inside the top 15 of their respective positions. Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf at wide receiver, as well as Noah Fant and Will Dissly at tight end.
Thank you for reading Goal-Line Guide Week 14. Be sure to check out all of the great Full Press Coverage.
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