Giants vs. Eagles: Preview and Prediction

The New York Giants are entering the most important stretch of their season. Unfortunately, but perhaps fittingly, it will also be their most difficult.

After their disappointing yet quietly valuable tie against the Washington Commanders last week, Big Blue holds the sixth seed in the NFC with a 7-4-1 record. That puts them just a half-game up on both the 7-5-1 Commanders and 7-5 Seattle Seahawks with five games left to play. The 9-3 Dallas Cowboys have one of the three available NFC Wild Card spots virtually locked up. That leaves New York, Washington, and Seattle to vie for the remaining two. Even the 5-7 Detroit Lions have an outside shot of getting back in contention.

The Road Ahead

The Giants need at least two or three more wins to sew up one of those still-up-for-grabs playoff spots. Looking at their remaining slate, however, it’s not easy to see where those wins will come. By opponents’ winning percentage, New York has the hardest remaining strength of schedule.

Hardest remaining strength of schedule
(via opponent win pct)

Giants .688
Bears .625
Commanders .600
Bengals .591
Jets .591 pic.twitter.com/wNdTDd697p

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 29, 2022

Big Blue will be underdogs in likely all but one of their final five games. That means they’ll have to pull off an upset or two earn that long-awaited playoff berth. Their first crack at snagging one of those improbable victories will be this Sunday when they host the mighty Philadelphia Eagles, who at 11-1 own the best record in the NFL. The Eagles aren’t paper tigers, either. Philly ranks third in total offense and second in total defense, the only team to rank top-five in both categories. Break them down into their component parts, and it’s still hard to find a weakness. Philly ranks fifth in rushing yards per game and second in yards per pass attempt. They rank first in opponents’ passing yards per game.

Run Game Required

If there’s one fly in the Eagles’ ointment, it’s their run defense. They rank in the 17th in rushing yards allowed per game and 24th in yards allowed per rush attempt. Ostensibly, the Giants strength is their rushing attack, so this should be a flaw they’re equipped to exploit. But Big Blue’s run game hasn’t been the same over the last five weeks. Over their first seven games, New York averaged 173.5 rushing yards per game. Over their last five, however, they’ve averaged 116.5 rushing yards per game. In order to upset their division rivals, they’ll have to get Saquon Barkley and the ground game back going in a major way.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s game, followed by a prediction for the final score.

Where and When

MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday at 1:00pm EST/10:00am PST

Injuries (Players on Injured Reserve Not Listed)

Philadelphia: WR Quez Watkins (Questionable), LB Kyzir White (Questionable), LB Shaun Bradley (Questionable)

New York: RB Saquon Barkley (Questionable), WR Richie James (Questionable), OG Shane Lemieux (Questionable), OG Joshua Ezeudu (Questionable), DL Leonard Williams (Questionable), CB Darnay Holmes (Questionable), CB Nick McCloud (Questionable), DL Henry Mondeaux (Questionable)

Most Concerning Matchup: WR A.J. Brown vs. CB Fabian Moreau

All apologies to Moreau, who’s done an admirable job coming up from the practice squad and starting. But until Adoree’ Jackson returns from his knee injury, Moreau filling in as New York’s top cornerback will always be cause for concern. That’s especially true when he matches up against an elite receiver, such as last week when he allowed Washington’s Terry McLaurin to go off for eight catches, 105 yards, and a touchdown.

This week will only get tougher for Moreau, as he’ll have to assume principal coverage duties on Brown, who’s having a great first season in Philadelphia and is coming off a tremendous game. Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale prefers to play man coverage, but he’ll probably have to bracket Brown with multiple defenders on key downs to prevent him from dominating like he did last week. Leaving Moreau on Brown in single coverage is a recipe to give up big plays. We’ll see if Martindale has the ingredients to cook up something else.

Most Promising Matchup: OT Andrew Thomas vs. DE Josh Sweat

The Eagles have one of the best defensive lines in football, but it excels more through it’s depth and consistency than individual star power. It’s best player is probably tackle Javon Hargrave, who already has eight sacks on the season. But not far behind is Sweat, who himself has 6.5 sacks and has taken the mantle from Brandon Graham as Philadelphia’s top edge rusher.

Fortunately for Big Blue, they have the type of left tackle that can neutralize a player like Sweat by himself. With all the talk of Barkley’s bounce-back year and the endless debate about quarterback Daniel Jones, Thomas has quietly been the Giants’ best offensive player all season. He’s earned an excellent 86.9 overall grade from Pro Football Focus, and has only allowed two sacks. Thomas locking up Sweat one-on-one will allow the Giants to devote more of their pass-blocking resources to the multiple other threats in the Eagles’ front seven.

Keys to Victory

As we’ve already touched on, the Giants’ need to get their ground game rocking and rolling in this one. That means not only a big game from Barkley but also Jones using his legs. With the limited options New York has in the passing game, Jones needs lean into his rushing ability for the Giants offense to be efficient. Designed runs and scrambles need to be a big part of Jones’ game on Sunday, with strategically timed deep strikes to Darius Slayton mixed in.

Defensively, Martindale needs to find a way to pressure Eagles’ quarterback Jalen Hurts. That’s easier said than done, given the quality of Philadelphia’s run game and offensive line. But while Hurts has had an excellent season, he’s still not in the “elite passer” class of quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow. The Giants need to force Hurts into quick decisions, and see if he doesn’t make a costly mistake or two.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 31 – Giants 17

This will be a tough one for Big Blue to pull off. The Eagles are a nearly flawless team that seems to be only improving as the season goes along. New York has proven to be scrappy, even against much more talented opponents, but this one will probably go a lot like the Dallas Cowboys game on Thanksgiving. The Giants will come out with a solid gameplan and hand around for about a half. Eventually, though, they’ll succumb to the superior team and fade down the stretch.

– Ryan Cuneo is the Managing Editor of Full Press Giants. He covers the New York Giants. Like and follow on Follow @ryan_cuneo Follow @FullPressGiants and Facebook.