Fantasy Football: Goal-Line Guide Week 15 -

It’s do or die in the fantasy football playoffs, which means that Goal-Line Guide Week 15 is even more important there ever when it comes to touchdown predicting.

Goal-Line Guide Week 15

Team	Rushing GLG	Passing GLG	Difference
Arizona Cardinals	58	51	Run + 7
Atlanta Falcons	76	55.5	Run + 20.5
Baltimore Ravens	65.5	55.5	Run + 10
Buffalo Bills	69.25	73.75	Pass + 4.5
Carolina Panthers	60	47	Run + 13
Chicago Bears	49.75	51.25	Pass + 1.5
Cincinnati Bengals	68.75	60.75	Run + 8
Cleveland Browns	79	53	Run + 26
Dallas Cowboys	79.75	80.25	Pass + 0.5
Denver Broncos	63	61.5	Run + 1.5
Detroit Lions	74	63	Run + 11
Green Bay Packers	49.5	72.5	Pass + 23
Houston Texans	57	50	Run + 7
Indianapolis Colts	71	54	Run + 17
Jacksonville Jaguars	58.75	69.25	Pass + 10.5
Kansas City Chiefs	68.5	66.5	Run + 2
Las Vegas Raiders	52.5	64	Pass + 11.5
Los Angeles Chargers	66.5	61	Run + 5.5
Los Angeles Rams	60.5	53	Run + 7.5
Miami Dolphins	63.75	63.75	Even
Minnesota Vikings	76.5	75.5	Run + 1
New England Patriots	82	56	Run + 26
New Orleans Saints	77.5	67	Run + 10.5
New York Giants	54.75	45.75	Run + 9
New York Jets	65	62	Run + 3
Philadelphia Eagles	77.25	72.75	Run + 4
Pittsburgh Steelers	75	63.5	Run + 11.5
San Francisco 49ers	53	59	Pass + 6
Seattle Seahawks	60.5	66.5	Pass + 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	55.25	62.25	Pass + 7
Tennessee Titans	73	63.5	Run + 9.5
Washington Commanders	67.75	46.25	Run + 21

The Biggest Differences

New England Patriots

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 82

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Passing Goal-Line Grade: 56

In Week 15, the best overall Goal-Line Grade belongs to the Patriots ground game. This has been a common case, the rushing offense facing the Raiders usually has a good score. That is because Las Vegas has allowed the highest touchdown rate on carries inside their own 5-yard line at 69%. A nice sight for whoever is in the New England backfield. The team has been dealing with injuries to several running backs, and it may end up being a pair of rookies who lead the way. Both Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong could be fantasy relevant this week. I would favor Strong since he had the better draft capital and has been active in many more games this year than Harris.

In addition to the Raiders defense being so vulnerable on the ground near the goal-line, the Patriots passing attack has not been so productive in that area. With only a 29% touchdown rate on passing plays inside opponents’ 5-yard line, New England is in the bottom third of the league in that category. As a result, the Patriots have a Goal-Line Grade differential of +26 favoring the running game, the highest of the week.

Cleveland Browns

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 79

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 53

That +26-point differential in favor of the ground attack is shared by the Cleveland. Inside the 5-yard line, much like New England, the Browns offense has a better touchdown rate on rushing attempts than it does through the air. Furthermore, their matchup also favors the running approach as the Ravens have surrendered more goal-line touchdowns on the ground with a 60% rate. That is basically double the rate of major scores they have allowed through the air inside their own 5-yard line (31%). All of that gives the Browns an excellent opportunity to capitalize with their running backs.

While it has been several disappointing weeks in a row for Nick Chubb, I am willing to go right back to him in the fantasy football playoffs. Currently, I have Chubb ranked as my RB # 5 this week, in half-point per-reception scoring. Kareem Hunt is certainly lower in the rankings, but could still be a playable option as well.

Green Bay Packers

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 49.5

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 72.5

The team with the largest Goal-Line Grade differential favoring the passing game are the Packers. A passing score of 72.5 is above the weekly average, which will certainly help with creating a big difference in the grades. However, the main culprit is Green Bay lack of success running inside the 5-yard line. The offense has only produced touchdowns on 20% of runs in that area, the lowest rate in the entire NFL so far this season. This leads to the Packers having the worst Rushing Goal-Line Grade this week with a score of 49.5.

While AJ Dillon has rebounded of late, he was a disappointment to start the season. I expect Dillon to return to his early-season form and not have the rushing touchdowns to boost his fantasy output. Of the Green Bay running backs, I would prefer Aaron Jones because of his skills as a pass-catcher. As for the receiving corps, Christian Watson has basically entered must-start territory with his recent scoring streak. I would also consider Allen Lazard to be a strong start this week.

NFC East Highs and Lows

Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 79.75

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 80.25

The Cowboys have both the 2nd and 3rd highest overall Goal-Line Grades this week. Specifically the 80.25 is the best passing score of Week 15. However, because their rushing grade is so close, I would not go overboard with Dallas receivers. Of course CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz should be started at wide receiver and tight end respectively. However, I would look to bench any of the other Cowboys pass-catching options.

This has already played out a couple of times this season, where Dallas has had almost identical Goal-Line Grades for both their rushing and passing offense. Often, the ground game is so effective that it creates a low-passing volume script for the Cowboys. All to say, I like both running backs as strong starting options this week. Play both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard with confidence.

New York Giants

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 45.75

A newcomer to this portion of the list. The Giants have this week’s lowest overall Goal-Line Grade for their passing score of 45.75. It is certainly a difficult matchup for the Giants arial attack. The Commanders have allowed a 23% touchdown rate on throws inside their own 5-yard line. That is actually a better offensive outlook than the run defense which has only surrendered touchdowns on 19% of carries.

The Giants are fully responsible for this low passing grade, as they have only produced throwdowns on 33% of touchdowns inside their opponents’ 5-yard line. Considering that the team has cashed in on the ground on more than half of their rushing attempts, the matchup definitely favors the run game. Saquon Barkley, and to a certain extent, Daniel Jones are the only Giants players I truly want to start in the first week of the fantasy football playoffs.

Washington Commanders

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 46.25

Interestingly enough, the two worst overall Goal-Line Grades from Week 15 belong to two NFC East rivals who will face off in primetime. At 46.25, Washington’s Goal-Line Grade is barely better than the Giants’ score. A major factor for that is the Commanders’ 15% touchdown rate on throws inside the 5-yard line. That is the second fewest in the entire league. The Giants defense is also more vulnerable on the ground allowed touchdowns on over half the goal-line carries against them.

What does this mean for Washington? Well, a passing game alpha like Terry McLaurin should be fine to start in the fantasy football playoffs without huge touchdown upside. However, aside from McLaurin, the Commanders players I am most excited to play is the running back duo of Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson. Both have been limited practice participants this week, but both should be expected to play. However, because this is a Sunday Night Football game, I would place either Gibson or Robinson as a flex option in my lineups. That way, if they do end up missing the game, you don’t have to be locked in to replacing them with another running back. You would instead have the flexibility to insert the best available option.

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