Giants at Commanders: Preview and Prediction

By every measure short of the strictly mathematical, Sunday night’s game against the Washington Commanders is a “must-win” for the New York Giants. The Giants and Commanders hold identical 7-5-1 records and occupy the final two playoff spots in the NFC. However, the 7-7 Seattle Seahawks and 6-7 Detroit Lions are hot on their heels. If the Giants lose this game, they’ll hold just half a game lead on the seventh and final playoff spot with difficult games against the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles left on their schedule. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Giants’ chances of making the playoffs would rise to 85% should they win, but would drop to 25% should they lose.

Right now, according to @FiveThirtyEight:

Commanders at 73% to make the playoffs, Giants at 44%

Giants win next Sunday
NYG jump to 85%, WAS falls to 34%

WAS win next Sunday
WAS jump to 89%, NYG fall to 25%

— Art Stapleton (@art_stapleton) December 12, 2022

You don’t need the complex calculation of probabilities, however, to understand the importance of Sunday night’s game. A Giants win would give them a one-game advantage in the standings and the tiebreaker over the Commanders, thereby giving them a practical two-game advantage with three weeks to go. Other than the type of Week 18, win-and-you’re-in matchup that for all intents and purposes is a playoff game (think Raiders-Chargers from last year), it’s hard to fathom a more meaningful regular-season game than Giants at Commanders on Sunday. There’s a reason, after all, that the NFL flexed it to the primetime slot on NBC’s Sunday Night Football.

The Sequel

Even with a mild case of amnesia, one can easily remember a real-life example of how a Giants-Commanders game could play out. Back in Week 13, these teams played to a 20-20 tie at MetLife Stadium. It was a sloppy, sluggish affair with plenty of mistakes and missed opportunities on both sides. Since then, Washington enjoyed a bye, presumably taking that extra time to prepare for this Giants game.

New York, meanwhile, took their worst loss of the season in a 48-22 dismantling by the Philadelphia Eagles. As bad as they looked, it was a performance not completely out of character for the Giants of late, who haven’t won a game in a month. The Commanders, on the other hand, in an almost inverted version of the Giants’ season, have followed up their early-year struggles with a 6-1-1 stretch over their last eight games. All the events leading up to this game give the clear advantage to Washington.

The Commanders, though, aren’t the runaway train their recent winning ways would suggest. They still have a -3 point differential , and all but two of their wins have come by one possession. Any Giants fan that watched Washington clumsily stumble into that tie two weeks ago knows they’re far from a powerhouse, but then again they know the same thing about the Giants, too. Ultimately, Sunday night will be a spotlight game between two flawed, darkhorse teams. The side that can rise to the occasion despite their limitations should prevail.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s game, followed by a prediction for the final score.

Where and When

FedEx Field in Summerfield, Maryland on Sunday at 8:20pm EST/5:20pm PST

Injuries (Players on Injured Reserve Not Listed)

New York: WR Richie James (Questionable), OG Joshua Ezeudu (Questionable), TE Daniel Bellinger (Questionable), OG Shane Lemieux (Questionable), CB Adoree’ Jackson (Questionable), DL Leonard Williams (Questionable), OLB Jihad Ward (Questionable), CB Nick McCloud (Questionable)

Washington: OT Saahdiq Charles (Questionable), OG Andrew Norwell (Questionable), WR Cam Sims (Questionable), RB Brian Robinson Jr. (Questionable), RB Antonio Gibson (Questionable), DE Montez Sweat (Questionable), DE Chase Young (Questionable), DE James Smith-Williams (Questionable), CB Benjamin St-Juste (Questionable)

Most Concerning Matchup: WR Terry McLaurin vs. CB Fabian Moreau

This makes three weeks in a row that Moreau has been identified in the most concerning matchup for Big Blue. That’s not a fair indication of Moreau’s contribution to the team, as he’s filled in quite well for the injured Aaron Robinson at the second cornerback spot. But filling in for Jackson at the first cornerback spot is another challenge. Over the last two games, covering star wideouts McLaurin and A.J. Brown, Moreau has given up a combined 175 yards and two touchdowns.

On Sunday, Moreau will once again draw McLaurin, whose great game a couple weeks ago was in keeping with his performance against the Giants throughout his career. The fourth-year star averages nearly 100 yards per game against Big Blue. Commanders quarterback Taylor Heinicke loves targeting McLaurin, too. Washington’s top receiving threat will probably hurt the Giants again unless Moreau can find a way to buck the trend.

Most Promising Matchup: OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux vs. OT Cornelius Lucas

While most aspects of their team have been in decline over the past month, the Giants’ pass rush has shown real signs of life. Big Blue has racked up nine sacks in the two games since outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari‘s return from injury. It’s the emergence of the rookie Thibodeaux, however, that has Giants fans most excited. Last time out against Washington, the fifth-overall pick registered a sack, five total tackles, and a couple quarterback hits. For this defense to reach its potential, Thibodeaux must develop into the star he was drafted to be, and he’s begun to show real signs of doing just that.

With Ojulari back in the fold rushing from the blindside, Thibodeaux should get most of his work against the Commanders right tackle Lucas. The veteran undrafted free agent has been an occasional starter for three different teams over his nine-year career. He’s started nine games for Washington this season, and has held up reasonably well, having allowed four sacks according to Pro Football Focus. He’s a true pro, so a pup like Thibodeaux won’t have a field day. Still, the talent discrepency is such that Thibodeaux should make his mark on this game.

Keys to Victory

We saw New York’s winning template for about a half when these teams met a couple weeks ago. The Giants were able to get serious pressure on Heinicke, and quarterback Daniel Jones played clean, efficient, dual-threat football. Unfortunately, the Giants hit the skids in the second half, causing the game to ultimately end in a tie.

Big Blue needs their pass rush to come through again, and hopefully jump on a couple more opportunities for takeaways. They also need Jones to produce with his arm and legs in equal measure. Quite frankly, his offensive supporting cast isn’t good enough to overcome him not using his full scope of abilities. They’re also not good enough to overcome another dud of a game from running back Saquon Barkley. The 2018 second-overall pick needs to be the big-time playmaker he was earlier in the season.

Final Score Prediction: Commanders 24 – Giants 23

Right now, the Commanders have the more talented roster, have played better football recently, and have homefield advantage. The Giants may have the slight coaching edge, and Jones and Barkley always seem to play well in FedEx Field. It’ll be close, but there’s something about this Washington team with Heinicke at the helm that just won’t quit. Look for the home team to rally late and snag the narrow victory.

– Ryan Cuneo is the Managing Editor of Full Press Giants. He covers the New York Giants. Like and follow on Follow @ryan_cuneo Follow @FullPressGiants and Facebook.