By every measure short of the strictly mathematical, Sunday night’s game against the Washington Commanders is a “must-win” for the New York Giants. The Giants and Commanders hold identical 7-5-1 records and occupy the final two playoff spots in the NFC. However, the 7-7 Seattle Seahawks and 6-7 Detroit Lions are hot on their heels. If the Giants lose this game, they’ll hold just half a game lead on the seventh and final playoff spot with difficult games against the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles left on their schedule. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Giants’ chances of making the playoffs would rise to 85% should they win, but would drop to 25% should they lose.
Right now, according to @FiveThirtyEight:
Commanders at 73% to make the playoffs, Giants at 44%
Giants win next Sunday
NYG jump to 85%, WAS falls to 34%WAS win next Sunday
WAS jump to 89%, NYG fall to 25%— Art Stapleton (@art_stapleton) December 12, 2022
You don’t need the complex calculation of probabilities, however, to understand the importance of Sunday night’s game. A Giants win would give them a one-game advantage in the standings and the tiebreaker over the Commanders, thereby giving them a practical two-game advantage with three weeks to go. Other than the type of Week 18, win-and-you’re-in matchup that for all intents and purposes is a playoff game (think Raiders-Chargers from last year), it’s hard to fathom a more meaningful regular-season game than Giants at Commanders on Sunday. There’s a reason, after all, that the NFL flexed it to the primetime slot on NBC’s Sunday Night Football.
The Sequel
Even with a mild case of amnesia, one can easily remember a real-life example of how a Giants-Commanders game could play out. Back in Week 13, these teams played to a 20-20 tie at MetLife Stadium. It was a sloppy, sluggish affair with plenty of mistakes and missed opportunities on both sides. Since then, Washington enjoyed a bye, presumably taking that extra time to prepare for this Giants game.
New York, meanwhile, took their worst loss of the season in a 48-22 dismantling by the Philadelphia Eagles. As bad as they looked, it was a performance not completely out of character for the Giants of late, who haven’t won a game in a month. The Commanders, on the other hand, in an almost inverted version of the Giants’ season, have followed up their early-year struggles with a 6-1-1 stretch over their last eight games. All the events leading up to this game give the clear advantage to Washington.
The Commanders, though, aren’t the runaway train their recent winning ways would suggest. They still have a -3 point differential , and all but two of their wins have come by one possession. Any Giants fan that watched Washington clumsily stumble into that tie two weeks ago knows they’re far from a powerhouse, but then again they know the same thing about the Giants, too. Ultimately, Sunday night will be a spotlight game between two flawed, darkhorse teams. The side that can rise to the occasion despite their limitations should prevail.
Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s game, followed by a prediction for the final score.
Where and When
FedEx Field in Summerfield, Maryland on Sunday at 8:20pm EST/5:20pm PST
Injuries (Players on Injured Reserve Not Listed)
New York: WR Richie James (Questionable), OG Joshua Ezeudu (Questionable), TE Daniel Bellinger (Questionable), OG Shane Lemieux (Questionable), CB Adoree’ Jackson (Questionable), DL Leonard Williams (Questionable), OLB Jihad Ward (Questionable), CB Nick McCloud (Questionable)
-
Ep 103: Tom Brady Retires, Sean Payton To Broncos, Super Bowl Primer
by Full Press Coverage on February 5, 2023 at 3:49 pm
Washington: OT Saahdiq Charles (Questionable), OG Andrew Norwell (Questionable), WR Cam Sims (Questionable), RB Brian Robinson Jr. (Questionable), RB Antonio Gibson (Questionable), DE Montez Sweat (Questionable), DE Chase Young (Questionable), DE James Smith-Williams (Questionable), CB Benjamin St-Juste (Questionable)
Most Concerning Matchup: WR Terry McLaurin vs. CB Fabian Moreau
This makes three weeks in a row that Moreau has been identified in the most concerning matchup for Big Blue. That’s not a fair indication of Moreau’s contribution to the team, as he’s filled in quite well for the injured Aaron Robinson at the second cornerback spot. But filling in for Jackson at the first cornerback spot is another challenge. Over the last two games, covering star wideouts McLaurin and A.J. Brown, Moreau has given up a combined 175 yards and two touchdowns.
On Sunday, Moreau will once again draw McLaurin, whose great game a couple weeks ago was in keeping with his performance against the Giants throughout his career. The fourth-year star averages nearly 100 yards per game against Big Blue. Commanders quarterback Taylor Heinicke loves targeting McLaurin, too. Washington’s top receiving threat will probably hurt the Giants again unless Moreau can find a way to buck the trend.
Most Promising Matchup: OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux vs. OT Cornelius Lucas
While most aspects of their team have been in decline over the past month, the Giants’ pass rush has shown real signs of life. Big Blue has racked up nine sacks in the two games since outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari‘s return from injury. It’s the emergence of the rookie Thibodeaux, however, that has Giants fans most excited. Last time out against Washington, the fifth-overall pick registered a sack, five total tackles, and a couple quarterback hits. For this defense to reach its potential, Thibodeaux must develop into the star he was drafted to be, and he’s begun to show real signs of doing just that.
With Ojulari back in the fold rushing from the blindside, Thibodeaux should get most of his work against the Commanders right tackle Lucas. The veteran undrafted free agent has been an occasional starter for three different teams over his nine-year career. He’s started nine games for Washington this season, and has held up reasonably well, having allowed four sacks according to Pro Football Focus. He’s a true pro, so a pup like Thibodeaux won’t have a field day. Still, the talent discrepency is such that Thibodeaux should make his mark on this game.
Keys to Victory
We saw New York’s winning template for about a half when these teams met a couple weeks ago. The Giants were able to get serious pressure on Heinicke, and quarterback Daniel Jones played clean, efficient, dual-threat football. Unfortunately, the Giants hit the skids in the second half, causing the game to ultimately end in a tie.
Big Blue needs their pass rush to come through again, and hopefully jump on a couple more opportunities for takeaways. They also need Jones to produce with his arm and legs in equal measure. Quite frankly, his offensive supporting cast isn’t good enough to overcome him not using his full scope of abilities. They’re also not good enough to overcome another dud of a game from running back Saquon Barkley. The 2018 second-overall pick needs to be the big-time playmaker he was earlier in the season.
Final Score Prediction: Commanders 24 – Giants 23
Right now, the Commanders have the more talented roster, have played better football recently, and have homefield advantage. The Giants may have the slight coaching edge, and Jones and Barkley always seem to play well in FedEx Field. It’ll be close, but there’s something about this Washington team with Heinicke at the helm that just won’t quit. Look for the home team to rally late and snag the narrow victory.
– Ryan Cuneo is the Managing Editor of Full Press Giants. He covers the New York Giants. Like and follow on Follow @ryan_cuneo Follow @FullPressGiants and Facebook.
-
Ep 142: Former Washington Quarterback And Super Bowl Champion Doug Williams Joins The Showby Full Press Coverage on February 3, 2023 at 10:19 pm
Former Washington quarterback and Super Bowl champion Doug Williams joins […]
-
Ep 141: Andy Reid, Eagles, And Conference Championship Weekend w/ Joe Bannerby Full Press Coverage on January 27, 2023 at 5:36 pm
Clark and Ira are joined by former Eagles President Joe Banner to talk […]
-
Ep 137: Hall Of Fame Discussion w/ John Turneyby Full Press Coverage on December 30, 2022 at 5:33 pm
Football historian John Turney of Pro Football Journal joins Clark and Ira […]
-
Ep 136: Remembering The Longest Game Ever Played With Larry Littleby Full Press Coverage on December 24, 2022 at 1:09 am
On the 51-year anniversary of the longest game ever played (Chiefs vs. […]
-
Ep 135: Hall of Fame Semifinalist Jahri Evans Joins The Showby Full Press Coverage on December 16, 2022 at 3:51 pm
Former Saints guard and 2023 HOF Semifinalist Jahri Evans joins Clark and […]
-
Ep 134: Remember AFL/NFL Star John Hadl with Nick Canepaby Full Press Coverage on December 8, 2022 at 2:39 pm
Former Hall of Fame voter, Nick Canepa, joins Clark and Ira to discuss the […]
-
Ep 133: Hall Of Fame Semifinalist Henry Ellard Joins The Showby Full Press Coverage on November 30, 2022 at 4:28 pm
Former Rams and Redskins wide receiver, Henry Ellard, joins Clark and Ira […]
-
Ep 132: Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2023 Semifinalists w/ Rick Gosselinby Full Press Coverage on November 22, 2022 at 6:15 pm
Clark and Ira are joined by Pro Football Hall of Fame voter Rick Gosselin […]
-
Ep 131: 'Football Heaven' With PFHOF Senior Advisor Joe Horriganby Full Press Coverage on November 17, 2022 at 5:55 pm
Pro Football Hall of Fame Senior Advisor, Joe Horrigan, joins Clark and […]
-
Ep 130: Remembering John McVay With Hall of Famer Eddie DeBartolo Jr.by Full Press Coverage on November 13, 2022 at 1:42 am
Clark and Ira are joined by Hall of Fame owner Eddie DeBartolo Jr. to […]
-
Ep 271: NFL Championship Roundby Full Press Coverage on January 26, 2023 at 1:58 pm
-
Ep 270: NFL Divisional Roundby Full Press Coverage on January 19, 2023 at 1:31 am
-
Ep 269: NFL Playoff Previewby Full Press Coverage on January 12, 2023 at 4:13 am
-
Ep 268: Week 16 Fantasy Rankingsby Full Press Coverage on December 21, 2022 at 9:45 pm
-
(Episode 3.2) Offseason Talk with the "Command This!" Podcastby Full Press Coverage on February 1, 2023 at 3:04 am
George Carmi hosts Steve, Dev, and Phil as they discuss the Commanders […]
-
Ep 167: Super Bowl LVII Previewby Full Press Coverage on February 1, 2023 at 12:33 am
This season premiere featured a preview of the NFL's season finale. In […]
-
1/6 - Kyrie Irving Traded, Sean Payton To Broncos, Early Super Bowl Oddsby Full Press Coverage on February 6, 2023 at 3:04 pm
Ian and John discuss the Kyrie Irving trade, Sean Payton heading to […]
-
2/3 - Tom Brady Retires... For Goodby Full Press Coverage on February 3, 2023 at 2:20 pm
Ian and John react to Tom Brady's second, and likely final, retirement. […]
-
1/31 - Tom Brady and the 49ers, Aaron Rodgers Futureby Full Press Coverage on January 31, 2023 at 9:00 am
Ian and John discuss whether or not the 49ers loss in the NFC Championship […]
-
1/30 - Conference Championship Recap: Eagles, Chiefs Advanceby Full Press Coverage on January 30, 2023 at 10:35 am
Ian and John recap the Eagles and Chiefs victories on Conference […]
-
Talkamania Episode 230by Talkamania on September 6, 2022 at 11:43 pm
-
Talkamania Episode 229by Talkamania on August 5, 2022 at 3:37 am
-
Boot 2 The Face Episode 211 "Steel Reserve"by Boot 2 The Face on January 28, 2023 at 6:59 pm
We preview the Royal Rumble and other things in the week of pro wreslting. […]
-
Boot 2 The Face Episode 210 "No Monè, No Monè, No Monè"by Boot 2 The Face on January 19, 2023 at 12:55 am
Rucker and EJ are back discussing Rucker going to Impacts Hard to Kill […]
-
Full Press MMA - Monday, February 6thby Full Press Coverage on February 7, 2023 at 12:00 am
-
Ep. 93: Vanderbilt Head Baseball Coach Tim Corbinby Full Press Coverage on February 6, 2023 at 11:03 pm
-
Bucks at Trail Blazersby Broken Controller Media on February 6, 2023 at 11:00 pm
-
Thunder at Warriorsby Broken Controller Media on February 6, 2023 at 10:00 pm
-
Mavericks at Jazzby Broken Controller Media on February 6, 2023 at 9:15 pm
-
Kings at Rocketsby Broken Controller Media on February 6, 2023 at 8:30 pm
-
Spurs at Bullsby Broken Controller Media on February 6, 2023 at 7:45 pm
-
Cavaliers at Wizardsby Broken Controller Media on February 6, 2023 at 7:00 pm
-
Celtics at Pistonsby Broken Controller Media on February 6, 2023 at 6:00 pm
-
Clippers at Netsby Broken Controller Media on February 6, 2023 at 5:00 pm
-
1/6 - Damar Hamlin Update, Bills/Bengals, AFC Playoffs, Week 18 Picksby Full Press Coverage on January 6, 2023 at 3:11 pm
-
Winter Classic: Bruins Rally To Beat Penguins At Fenwayby Full Press Coverage on January 4, 2023 at 2:09 am
-
1/3 - Bills/Bengals Postponed; Bruins Topple Penguins In Winter Classicby Full Press Coverage on January 4, 2023 at 2:05 am
-
1/2 - Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Week 17, Bills/Bengalsby Full Press Coverage on January 3, 2023 at 3:22 am
-
12/30 - New Year's Eve, Luka Doncic, NBA Talk, Week 17 Preview and Picksby Full Press Coverage on January 1, 2023 at 2:29 am
-
Aaron Rodgers, Packers Win Third Straight; Playoffs In Sightby Full Press Coverage on December 27, 2022 at 7:36 pm