Giants at Vikings: Preview and Prediction

There must be hundreds of worthwhile things to do with a time machine. But if you happen to get your hands on one and are short on ideas, try travelling back to August and telling any football fan that the New York Giants will be in position to clinch a playoff spot by Christmas. Even after showing them pictures of Lionel Messi clutching the World Cup trophy to prove you’re from the future, they still won’t believe you.

After all, this was a Giants team coming off a four-win season, embarking on a new regime within the front office and coaching staff, and starting a presumptively lame-duck quarterback. The roster was already flawed and had to be pared down just to get under the salary cap. Yet here we are, with Big Blue set to play the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Eve and facing the reasonable possibility of guaranteeing their first postseason berth in six seasons.

Clinching Scenario

New York needs at least three games to go their way this weekend to clinch a playoff spot. The first, of course, is their own against the Vikings, which they need to win. Then, they need two of the Seattle Seahawks (at the Kansas City Chiefs), the Detroit Lions (at the Carolina Panthers), or the Washington Commanders (at the San Francisco 49ers) to lose. The Seahawks and Commanders are underdogs in their respective matchups, so there’s a decent chance the Giants will get their requisite help. Big Blue must take care of their own business, though, which is easier said than done against the 11-win Vikings.

Vulnerable Vikes?

While you don’t just stumble into 11 wins by accident, Minnesota certainly isn’t the powerhouse their record suggests. They only have a +2 point differential, and 10 of their 11 wins have come by one possession. They sport a top-ten scoring offense, but are middling or worse in every other major statistical category. In fact, the Vikings currently rank dead last in total defense.

Much like New York, Minnesota has gotten to this point with a knack for coming out on top in close games. Think back to their Week 10 win over the Buffalo Bills, when their defense recovered a fumbled snap in the opposing endzone to score the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute. Or consider last week, when they rallied from 33-0 against the Indianapolis Colts for the largest comeback in NFL history. By luck or by pluck, the Vikings have consistently found ways to win. In many ways they’re a more successful version of the Giants, who have also eked out most of their wins without ever looking like an especially good team.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Saturday’s game, followed by a prediction for the final score.

Where and When

U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Saturday at 1:00pm EST/10:00am PST

Injuries (Players on Injured Reserve Not Listed)

New York: S Xavier McKinney (Out), CB Adoree’ Jackson (Out), OG Shane Lemieux (Out)

Minnesota: C Garrett Bradbury (Out), CB Cameron Dantzler (Questionable), LB Eric Kendricks (Questionable)

Most Concerning Matchup: WR Justin Jefferson vs. CB Fabian Moreau

Looking back now, it was a tough break for Moreau that Giants number-one corner Jackson got injured just as New York was set to face a run of top-tier receivers. Jackson sprained his MCL back in Week 12 while returning a punt. Since then, Moreau has had to fill in for Jackson and cover CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and Terry McLaurin twice. He allowed an average of 87.75 yards per game to those receivers over that stretch, and is about to take on his most difficult challenge yet.

If Jefferson isn’t the best wide receiver in football, he’s neck and neck with the Miami Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill. Jefferson leads the NFL in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. The third-year LSU product is the definition of a complete wideout. He can win aligned out wide or in the slot. He can win in the deep, intermediate, or shallow levels of the field. He can win against zone or man. He can certainly win against Moreau if the Giants dare leave him in single coverage. Jefferson is no stranger to taking over games. Moreau will need plenty of help to keep him from doing so again on Saturday.

Most Promising Matchup: DT Dexter Lawrence vs. C Austin Schlottmann

New coordinator Wink Martindale’s decision to slide Lawrence over to nose tackle has been one of the keys to unlocking Big Blue’s surprisingly good defense this season. The 340-pound Clemson product is a physical mismatch for most centers, and has parlayed his new role into his first Pro Bowl selection. With three games still left to go, Lawrence already has 6.5 sacks and 24 quarterback hits, phenomenal numbers for an interior player. It’s hard to overstate how important he’s been to the Giants’ success this season.

Lawrence should have an especially favorable matchup this week. Minnesota’s first-team center Bradbury will miss his third consecutive game with a back injury, meaning his backup Schlottmann will draw starting duties once more. The fourth-year undrafted free agent hasn’t fared well in his two starts so far, earning a poor 46.6 overall grade from Pro Football Focus. Schlottmann simply won’t have the play strength to handle Lawrence one-on-one. If the Sexy Dexy can consistently command double teams, opportunities for Leonard Williams, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Azeez Ojulari should open up.

Keys to Victory

As we head into the tail end of the season, New York’s defensive calling card is starting to crystallize. It should be one that’s familiar to long-time Giants fans: pass rush. Rookie outside linebacker Thibodeaux is coming off a star-making performance on Sunday Night Football. Second-year pass rusher Ojulari has 4.5 sacks in just five games played this year. Lawrence and Williams form one of the best interior duos in football. Those four together will have to be dominant not only in this game, but for the rest of the season. Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has been sacked 40 times this year, so getting to him and creating negative plays should be a priority.

Offensively, Big Blue should rely a little more on quarterback Daniel Jones‘ arm than usual. Minnesota ranks 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt, but are slightly above average in yards allowed per rush. Of course, running back Saquon Barkley should still feature heavily. But Jones has shown he can operate the passing game out of shotgun pretty well. Letting him do more of that this week could take advantage of the Vikings’ lenient pass defense.

Final Score Prediction: Vikings 30 – Giants 23

We’ve seen on multiple occasions that the Giants struggle against teams with real offensive firepower. Minnesota has scored over 25 points nine times this year, whereas the Giants have done so just once. New York’s secondary won’t keep up with Jefferson and company, and their offense simply isn’t built to light up the scoreboard, regardless of the opposing defense. It would take a truly heroic effort from Big Blue’s pass rush to stifle the Vikings’ offense for 60 minutes. Expect a fairly comfortable win for the home side.

– Ryan Cuneo is the Managing Editor of Full Press Giants. He covers the New York Giants. Like and follow on Follow @ryan_cuneo Follow @FullPressGiants and Facebook.