Giants vs. Colts: Preview and Prediction

There’s an American proverb that states “If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.” While certainly a useful reminder to persevere through adversity, not everyone receives a second chance at success. The New York Giants, however, can count themselves among those fortunate enough to get another crack at achieving their goal.

Win and You’re In

Big Blue came up just short of clinching a postseason berth last week when they lost 27-24 on a last-second 61-yard field goal to the Minnesota Vikings. Thanks to nearly every team chasing the Giants in the standings also losing last week, they can still lock up playoff spot by simply beating the Indianapolis Colts at home this Sunday.

Unlike Minnesota last week, who sported an 11-3 record and was coming off a record-setting 33-point comeback, Indianapolis sure seems ripe for the picking. With a 4-10-1 record, the Colts are merely playing out the string. They’re coming off a 20-3 shallacking at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football. They fired former head coach Frank Reich after Week 9, and have since gone just 1-5 under interim coach Jeff Saturday, a former Colts center with zero prior NFL coaching experience. They’ve cycled through three different starting quarterbacks despite no injuries at the position, with most recent starter Nick Foles throwing three interceptions on Monday night. In short, the Colts should be grateful the Denver Broncos exist, or else they’d indisputably be the most disappointing team in the NFL.

Careful Now

None of that is to say the Giants should treat this game like a cakewalk. Hidden underneath Indianapolis’ awful record is the fact they’ve been competitive with multiple quality teams. They were at least able to build that 33-0 lead againt the Vikings two weeks ago before blowing it. They were only down 21-19 heading into the fourth quarter against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13. They only lost 17-16 to the mighty Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11. They even beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 in Week 3. Indy’s roster still has multiple quality veterans, and they can still beat you if given a few breaks.

Fortunately for New York, it appears Saturday is inexplicably committed to starting Foles at quarterback again depite looking overwhelmed against the Chargers. When the Colts have been at their best, it’s been with veteran Matt Ryan at the helm. In the three games Ryan hasn’t started this season, they’ve averaged less than 10 points. Regardless of Saturday’s rationale for keeping his best quarterback on the bench, Big Blue certainly won’t apologize for taking on a self-handicapped opponent.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s game, followed by a prediction for the final score.

Where and When

MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday at 1:00pm EST/10:00am PST

Injuries (Players on Injured Reserve Not Listed)

Indianapolis: CB Kenny Moore (Questonable), WR Ashton Dulin (Questionable), TE Kylen Granson (Questionable)

New York: S Xavier McKinney (Out), CB Adoree’ Jackson (Questionable), OLB Azeez Ojulari (Questionable), DL Leonard Williams (Questionable)

Most Concerning Matchup: DT DeForest Buckner vs. C Jon Feliciano

As already mentioned, the Colts’ roster has more high-quality players than you’d expect of a four-win team. Most notably, they have an elite player on each side of the ball in guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle Buckner. The 2016 seventh-overall pick has been great for Indianapolis since arriving in a trade from the San Francisco 49ers three years ago. While the team as a whole has severely underperformed this season, Buckner has been his typically productive self. With two games still left to go, he already has numbers in line with his previous Pro Bowl campaigns. At 6’7″, Buckner’s length and athleticism is usually a mismatch for most interior offensive lineman. Sunday will be no exception.

Last offseason, the Giants had multiple spots along the offensive line to fill and limited money to spend. So, new general manager Joe Schoen went bargain hunting in free agency, signing guard Mark Glowinski and center Feliciano to inexpensive deals. After watching both players start all year, Giants fans now understand why they came on the cheap. Neither player has provided better than replacement-level play, stuggling especially in pass protection. Buckner should have his way with either of them, particularly Feliciano who just doesn’t have the feet to keep up. Look for Buckner to routinely get extra attention in drop-back passing situations.

Most Promising Matchup: OT Andrew Thomas vs. DE Yannick Ngakoue

There are numerous factors for the Giants’ surprisingly successful season, but one which has gone underdiscussed is the incredibly reliable play from Thomas at left tackle. Quarterback Daniel Jones can more confidently navigate the pocket knowing his blind side is protected. Schematically, New York can afford to lend help to their lesser offensive linemen with Thomas handling his man by himself. Big Blue should be able to leverage Thomas’ consistently stellar play once again on Sunday.

While Buckner is the Colts’ best defensive lineman, their sack leader is actually Ngakoue, who came over from the Las Vegas Raiders in a trade last offseason. Ngakoue is your prototypical pass-rush specialist, which basically means he’s decidedly not a run-defense specialist. The seven-year veteran wins primarily with his speed, using his patented crosschop move to beat tackles around the corner. He doesn’t, however, have much of a power element to his game. Thomas rarely loses to those kind of one-dimensional pass rushers. Expect Thomas to have another dominant day, allowing New York to focus more resources on stopping Buckner inside.

Keys to Victory

Offensively, the Giants should look to continue the more pass-happy approach they’ve deployed over the last couple weeks. The Colts’ defense ranks top-ten in rushing yards allowed per attempt, but are middle of the pack in passing yards per attempt. It likely won’t be a banner day for New York’s offense against a solid Indianapolis defense, but calling on Jones’ arm makes sense for a team that’s made strides in the passing game recently.

Defensively, Big Blue shouldn’t be satisfied with anything less than dominance. They could see their top cornerback Jackson return in this one, which should only embolden coordinator Wink Martindale to send more pressure at Foles. There’s nothing offensively the Colts do well, so the Giants’ defense should dictate the game.

Final Score Prediction: Giants 26 – Colts 10

New York is simply too well coached to let a chance to clinch a playoff spot against a lesser opponent at home slip through their fingers. Look for a clean offensive showing and a couple defensive takeaways to power a relatively comfortable win.

– Ryan Cuneo is the Managing Editor of Full Press Giants. He covers the New York Giants. Like and follow on Follow @ryan_cuneo Follow @FullPressGiants and Facebook.