Giants at Vikings: Playoff Preview and Prediction

The New York Giants have exceeded expectations this season, but we’ve known this since their unlikely 7-2 start. The Giants are a surprise playoff team, too, but after their strong start it would have been frankly disappointing had they missed the playoffs. But the fact Giants fans feel so good about this team entering the playoffs, well, that’s an entirely different level of improbable.

Typically, suprise playoff teams like the Giants resemble last year’s Philadelphia Eagles, scrappy upstarts that ultimately get outmatched by a true contender in the wild-card round. This year’s Giants, though, don’t quite give off those vibes. Some of that has to do with Big Blue’s wild-card opponent. Unlike the Eagles last year, who had to take on the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Giants will match up against the relatively vulnerable Minnesota Vikings. More than anything, though, New York appears to be finding it’s best form at just the right time.

Here Comes the Cavalry

Firstly, the Giants look to be entering the playoffs healthier than they’ve been all year. They should be getting top cornerback Adoree’ Jackson back, who hasn’t played since spraining his MCL back in Week 11. Jackson’s return, along with continued reintegration of safety Xavier McKinney and pass rusher Azeez Ojulari, means Big Blue’s defense should be optimized for the first time this season. On offense, running back Saquon Barkley seems to be hitting his stride after some mid-season bumps and bruises. The offensive line has had time to gel after getting some injured members back a few weeks ago.

The positivity around Big Blue goes beyond the injury report. Since getting blown out by the Eagles in Week 14, the Giants have played their best football of the season. In Week 15, they defeated the Washington Commanders 20-12 on the road in a must-win game. In Week 16, they narrowly lost to these same Vikings 27-24 on 61-yard last-second field goal. In Week 17, they crushed the Indianapolis Colts 38-10 in their best overall performance. Last week’s loss in Philadelphia can be thrown away as they rested nearly all their starters.

Dan the Man

New York’s uptick in play starts with quarterback Daniel Jones, who’s taken greater command of the offense over this past month. The coaching staff strayed from the play-action, bootleg-based offense they relied upon earlier and allowed Jones to operate more from the shotgun in three-receiver sets. He rewarded them with efficient, effective performances in important games, including a four-touchdown outing against the Colts. Jones’ emergence as a passer should make this offense more versatile and dangerous in the playoffs.

Defensively, New York’s pass rush is starting to look fearsome. Rookie outside linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux continues to grow, with two sacks and 23 combined tackles over his last three starts. Fellow outside linebacker Ojulari’s 5.5 sacks in just five starts is exceedingly impressive. Tackles Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams form one the very best interior duos in football.

Giants fans know that a hot pass rush and a clutch quarterback can lead to some pretty great things.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s wild-card game, followed by a prediction for the final score.

Where and When

U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Sunday at 4:30pm EST/1:30pm PST

Injuries (Players on Injured Reserve Not Listed)

New York: DL Leonard Williams (Questionable), OLB Azeez Ojulari (Questionable), CB Adoree’ Jackson (Questionable), S Jason Pinnock (Questionable), OT Evan Neal (Questionable), WR Marcus Johnson (Questionable)

Minnesota: S Harrison Smith (Questionable), CB Cameron Dantzler (Questionable)

Most Concerning Matchup: OLB Danielle Hunter vs. OT Evan Neal

With the sixth-seed locked up, the Giants opted to rest essentially all their starters in last week’s season finale. The one prominent exception was Neal, who played about half of New York’s offensive snaps in an effort to work through his ongoing rookie struggles. It wasn’t encouraging, then, to see Neal play worse than many of Big Blue’s backups, giving up pressures around the edge and commiting multiple false start penalties. It’s normal for offensive tackles to experience rookie growing pains, but Neal hasn’t shown much improvement as the year has progressed. As such, he’s a major point of concern for Big Blue’s offense.

Minnesota is well equipped to take advantage of a shaky rookie tackle. New York’s star left tackle Andrew Thomas will match up with Pro Bowler Za’Darius Smith, but that leaves Neal to contend with Hunter, who himself has had a strong 10.5-sack campaign. Hunter has the length, hand usage, athleticism, and savvy to keep Neal off balance. If the Giants don’t make a concerted effort to give Neal help on obvious passing downs, Hunter could have a great start to his postseason.

Most Promising Matchup: OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux vs. OT Oli Udoh

The NFL is a merciless league even in the regular season, so the postseason will be no exception. If a team has a starter out at an important position, their opponent is obligated to try and exploit that unfortunate backup. In the Vikings’ case, they’ll be without starting right tackle Brian O’Neill, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 17. Filling in will be 2019 sixth-round pick Udoh, who did start 16 games at guard for Minnesota last year. But now he must step in at tackle in the playoffs with just a one-game leadup.

Looking to take advantage of the inexperienced Udoh will be the fifth-overall pick Thibodeaux, who has been getting better and better late in his rookie campaign. The Oregon product is beginning to look like the game-changing player he was drafted to be. His speed around the edge should cause problems for the somewhat more lumbering Udoh. If Thibodeaux can consistently win his matchup and get pressure on quarterback Kirk Cousins, the Giants can lower their blitz-rate and commit more numbers to covering star receiver Justin Jefferson.

Keys to Victory

When these two teams matched up back in Week 16, the Giants had one of their best offensive performances. They racked up a season-high 445 total yards, including 319 passing yards. Barkley went for 133 total yards and a touchdown. Big Blue moved the ball pretty easily against Minnesota’s now 31st-ranked defense.

Cleary, a blueprint exists for New York’s offense to succeed against this team, but the Vikings won’t just let the Giants run back their gameplan from four week ago without making adjustments. Look for Minnesota to potentially send more pressure at Jones to make him uncomfortable in the pocket. If that’s the case, Jones will have to make sharp decisions to get the ball out of his hands, while also picking his spots to scramble when lanes open up. Regardless, Jones will have to be on his game for New York’s offense to run efficiently.

Defensively, coordinator Wink Martindale might have to play against type and blitz less often. The strength of New York’s defense is their pass rush. Dedicating more players to coverage and relying on his dudes upfront to generate pressure could be the way to go. After all, when the Giants blitzed back in Week 16, Cousins was able to find success more often than not.

Final Score Prediction: Vikings 24 – Giants 23

These teams have lived off winning close games, so it only makes sense this one goes down to the wire. When games are this tight, factors like homefield advantage, experience, and big-play potential start to matter more. Unfortunately for New York, all those factors are in Minnesota’s favor. Look for the Vikings to eke out another thriller.

– Ryan Cuneo is the Managing Editor of Full Press Giants. He covers the New York Giants. Like and follow on Follow @ryan_cuneo Follow @FullPressGiants and Facebook.