Giants at Eagles: Divisional Round Preview and Prediction

Much has been made of the New York Giants’ surprisingly successful season, and how new head coach Brian Daboll has revitalized a heretofore dormant organization. The Giants have received many kudos and congratulations for not only making the playoffs but actually winning a playoff game, which has far surpassed their consensus preseason projection. While that all may be true, and Big Blue does deserve major credit for what they’ve already accomplished, now is not the time for reflection. Now is the time to capitalize on the opportunity New York has in front of them.

There are just eight teams left in the NFL with a chance to win Super Bowl LVII. The Giants are one of those teams. That means they’re just three more wins away from claiming professional football’s ultimate prize, and the franchise’s fifth Vince Lombardy trophy. Patting yourself on the back for outperforming expectations can come in the offseason. As for now, these New York Giants can become legendary.

Birds Up

The next obstacle in New York’s road to history is the hated division-rival Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia was, from start to finish, the NFL’s best team over the course of the regular season. They started their season 8-0, and finished with a league-leading 14-3 record (tied with the Kansas City Chiefs). The Eagles lost just once with starting quarterback Jalen Hurts under center. They finished third in both total offense and scoring offense, and first in both scoring defense and total defense. They’re the only team in the NFL to finish top-three in all four categories.

Run It or Gun It?

All of that is to say the Eagles have been and are a dominant team. But even the best teams have exploitable chinks in their armour. For Philadelphia, that weakness is run defense, where they finished 24th in rushing yards per attempt. Some of that is by design, as the Eagles often play with a fifth defensive back and rush-first front-seven players to prioritize stopping the pass. But they also don’t have great linebacker play, and can be susceptible to misdirection in the run game.

That, theoretically, should play into the Giants’ strengths, as Big Blue rode Saquon Barkley and a diverse ground attack to ranking fifth in rush yards per attempt. But New York’s offense has found it’s stride recently by primarily operating through quarterback Daniel Jones and the quick passing game. It’ll be interesting to see if the Giants reinstate their early-season run-first offense to attack Philadelphia’s identifiable flaw, or if they trust Jones to continue to thrive even against an elite pass defense.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Saturday’s divisional game, followed by a prediction for the final score.

Where and When

Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on Saturday at 8:15pm EST/5:15pm PST

Injuries (Players on Injured Reserve Not Listed)

New York: OLB Azeez Ojulari (Questionable)

Philadelphia: CB Avonte Maddox (Out)

Most Concerning Matchup: OLB Haason Reddick vs. OT Evan Neal

For as well as New York’s offense has coalesced over the past four or five games, one player has remained a cause for concern: the rookie Neal. This year’s seventh-overall pick has by-and-large struggled in his first season out of Alabama, especially in pass protection. According to Pro Football Focus, he allowed seven sacks over 13 games in the regular season while garnering an overall grade of 44. He gave up a sack last week against the Minnesota Vikings, too, and allowed regular pressure around the edge.

In his first season in Philadelphia, Reddick had a career year. The six-year veteran racked up a whopping 16 sacks and 26 quarterback hits. Reddick’s speed and bend around the edge has caused serious problems for nearly every tackle he’s faced this season, including Neal himself back in Week 14. Oh, and the former first-round pick out of Temple has historically feasted on the Giants. He has six sacks over six career games against Big Blue. All-Pro left tackle Andrew Thomas should handle Josh Sweat on Jones’ blind side, but Reddick could ruin more than a few Giants passing plays if Neal doesn’t get requisite help.

Most Promising Matchup: WR Richie James vs. CB Josiah Scott

The Eagles are almost entirely healthy heading into this game, but one usual starter who’ll have to miss the game is their nickel cornerback Maddox. In his place will be Scott, a 2020 fourth-round pick out of Michigan State. Scott started four games for Philadelphia this season, allowing a 68.8 completion percentage and a 103.5 passer rating when targeted. Philly’s defense is chock-full of quality, experienced veterans. Scott is at least one player Big Blue can look to exploit.

While Isaiah Hodgins has been the Giants receiver generating the most buzz recently, James has been a quietly reliable target for Jones all season. The 2018 seventh-round pick led all Big Blue receivers with 57 catches this year, and has developed a rapport with Jones. New York’s offense has lived off quick, intermediate passes over the past month. If James can consistenty uncover from Scott, they can live that way again on Saturday night.

Keys to Victory

This will be a tough one. Offensively, the Giants have to allow Jones to operate out of shotgun. That was how this offense revived itself, and they have to stay true to what got them here. Having said that, Barkley must get more rushing attempts to hopefully exploit the Eagles’ one defensive weakness. In other words, maintain the 11-personell, shotgun based offense, but be willing to call more run plays out those formations and catch Philadelphia in some light boxes.

New York’s task on defense seems even taller. Holding up on the ground is paramount against the Eagles, which will be tough for a Giants run defense that’s been porous all year. If Big Blue can force Philadelphia into enough obvious passing situations, they can send extra men on the rush and potentially create some negative plays. For as well as Hurts has played, he’s struggled somewhat against the blitz. Look for defensive coordinator Wink Martindale to dial up some pressure packages.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 27 – Giants 23

Make no mistake, the Giants have been playing their best football of late. The Eagles looked at their worst towards the end of the season. But the gap between these teams was so large to begin with, their ships haven’t quite passed in the night. Even at less than full throttle, Philadelphia is still a tad better than New York at maximum efficiency. This will be close, but the Eagles’ superior talent will ultimately be the difference.

– Ryan Cuneo is the Managing Editor of Full Press Giants. He covers the New York Giants. Like and follow on Follow @ryan_cuneo Follow @FullPressGiants and Facebook.