New England Patriots 2023 Mock Draft 1.0

The 2023 NFL Free Agency kicked off at the start of the new league year without the excitement of years past. Fewer trades. Fewer big names on the move. A more restrained free agency of years past. But excitement is coming–with the 2023 NFL Draft!

With some big dominoes yet to fall in free agency (Aaron Rodgers, Odell Beckham Jr., etc.), most of the 32 NFL teams are in full swing readying for the NFL Draft at the end of April. With big trades on hold until the NFL Draft, the focus is squarely on prospects who can improve the weaknesses on both sides of the ball

For the New England Patriots, now that the dust has settled from free agency, the Patriots’ path forward in the 2023 NFL Draft is coming into focus. Despite replacing some pieces at wide receiver, tight end and offensive tackle, those positions are still a need in the draft.

While not having the depth and talent of last year’s draft, there are excellent prospects at wide receiver and tackle. At tight end, the crop of tight ends is deep, talented and ready-to-play from top-to-bottom. 

With that in mind, I put on my Matt Groh/Elliott Wolf persona and attacked those positional weaknesses in my mock NFL Draft. Remembering that nothing in New England is done without Bill Belichick’s input, I put a little Bill Belichick’s Best Draft strategies into effect (going back to the successful 2011, 2010, 2003, and 2002 drafts).

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New England Patriots 2023 NFL Draft Picks 

Here’s a complete list of the Patriots’ draft picks for 2023:

1st Round: 14th overall

2nd Round: 46th overall

3rd Round: 76th overall (from Panthers)

4th Round: 107th overall (from L.A. Rams)

4th Round: 117th overall

4th Round: 135th overall (compensation pick)

6th Round: 184th overall (from Raiders)

6th Round: 187th overall (from Panthers)

6th Round: 192nd overall

6th Round: 210th overall (compensation pick)

7th Round: 245th overall (from Bills through Falcons)

For mock draft purposes, I used the ProFootballNetwork NFL Mock Draft Simulator. It’s free, the trade offers aren’t insanely unreal (looking at you NFL Mock Draft Database) and is not locked behind a paywall (ProFootballFocus, you know who I’m referring to). 

I may not agree with their player rankings, but the PFN Mock simulator is more logical, the trades make sense, and I can run it five hundred times a day if I want (I’ve been full speed ahead with the draft and preparation since the regular season ended).

So let’s kick off my first mock draft of the year:

1st Round: 14th Overall

There’s a lesson to be learned from the two Super Bowl teams and drafting wide receivers:

The Philadelphia Eagles made one of the worst draft picks ever, grabbing Jealon Reagor one pick ahead of Justin Jefferson in 2020. Unafraid, they spent their next first-round pick on DeVonta Smith and have reaped the benefits.

The Kansas City Chiefs had a huge swing-and-miss on Mecole Hardman in 2019 at wide receiver. Undaunted, they spent a second-round pick on Skyy Moore, who had a touchdown reception in the Super Bowl.

The point is, just because New England has struggled when drafting wide receivers high in the draft, it doesn’t mean they should stop. If anything, they should follow the leads of the Eagles and Chiefs and continue taking swings at the position in the draft. 

With the 14th overall pick, the New England Patriots select…

Well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Remember, the Patriots will have options here. Quarterback Will Levis from Kentucky is the surprising drop down the draft board. A team trading up for a quarterback prospect is a gold mine of potential draft picks.

For sticking and picking purposes, I would be ecstatic to see New England with either Devon Witherspoon, the cornerback from Illinois or Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the smooth wide receiver out of Ohio State, and both are on the board. 

The trade offers are coming in and surprisingly, not from teams looking for a quarterback (Levis’ pro day raised some red flags for teams and apparently it is not just me that is projecting him as Zach Wilson 2.0). The Giants are offering their 2024 first round draft pick to move back to 25th overall. The Cowboys are offering the same with a fourth-round pick next year to sweeten a move back to 26th overall.

The offer of a future first-round pick gets the Bill Belichick I’m channeling deep inside me excited. Trying to be like Bill, I reach out to old pal Brian Daboll and the Giants to see if they’ll match what their interdivisional rival is offering to move up. 

The Giants agree and send their first rounder 25th overall, their fifth-round pick this season, the 160th overall, and their 2024 first round pick to jump up to 14th overall. Shockingly, they used the pick on Texas running back Bijan Robinson (presumably to replace Saquon Barkley in 2024).

With the 25th overall pick, the New England Patriots select…

Hold on, Belichick’s phone is still ringing. The Colts are looking to move back to the first round offering their second and third-round draft picks. Tampa Bay is trying to get back in as well and offering their late second-round pick and the opportunity for another 2024 first-round pick (they want a 2024 mid round pick back as well).

However, going back to 50th is a big drop and the Colts are 35th overall. There is one more offer that makes a lot of sense. Dallas is still trying to move up, even one spot, and are offering a 2024 third-round pick to move one spot from 26th overall to 25th. An easy choice to snag a great pick for next year.

Although easy to pull the trigger, in retrospect it hurts. Dallas takes Jalin Hyatt, the talented wide receiver out of Tennessee at 25th overall.

With the 26th overall pick, the New England Patriots select…

Wait just a second. Losing out on Hyatt has the Matt Groh/Elliott Wolf combo in the front office thinking about moving back again for another draft pick in this deep pool of talent. 

The phone is ringing with Cincinnati at 28th overall, New Orleans at 29th overall and Carolina trying to come up from the second round. 

There is still Will Levis (QB Kentucky), Bryan Bresee (DT Clemson), Isaiah Foskey (EDGE Notre Dame), Michael Mayer (TE Notre Dame), Josh Downs (WR North Carolina), Anton Harrison (OT Oklahoma), Dawand Jones (OT Ohio State) and Zay Flowers (WR Boston College) still available. Dropping a few spots could snare another pick and still get a valuable wide receiver, tight end or guard.

Cincinnati offered pick 28 along with a future second-round pick, but wanted back one of the fourth-round picks. Carolina was offering two 2024 picks but New England would have to drop back to the second round.

New Orleans, offering another fourth-round pick this year at 115 overall with the 29th pick in exchange for pick 29 had the winning trade-down offer. New Orleans, as they have done in the past, traded up in the first round to draft an edge rusher, grabbing Notre Dame’s Isaiah Foskey in this mock draft.

With the 29th overall pick, the New England Patriots select…

Dawand Jones, offensive tackle, Ohio State

Yes, finally a draft pick. Clemson defensive tackle Bryan Breese went 27th and offensive tackle Anton Harrison went 28th overall. In addition to Downs, there was still the free-falling Will Levis (QB Kentucky), Michael Mayer (TE Notre Dame), Dawand Jones (OT Ohio State) and Zay Flowers (WR Boston College) still available.

Mayer was a tempting pick, especially with both tight ends in the last year of their contract. I expected a team to move up for Levis, but no offers (Atlanta traded back into the first round to take him at 30th overall, knowing New England would not take a quarterback in round one).

With it down to Downs or Flowers at wide receiver, both fit the same profile. Both are undersized and best suited to the slot. With Juju Smith-Schuster signed for three years and exclusively a slot receiver, spending a first-round pick on a player unlikely to contribute immediately makes little sense.

Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnson are the top outside wide receivers in the draft, but both were long gone by the time the Patriots were initially on the board. If either were available, staying at number 14 overall makes sense.

Picking the projected right tackle of the future in Dawand Jones, with Brown and Reiff in the last year of their deals, makes a lot of sense. Jones is massive, at six-foot-eight and over 370 pounds. Peter Skoronski is mocked to New England a lot, and I missed a shot to pick him trading down. However, with the Trent Brown/Nate Solder man-mountain profile having worked better than the Isaiah Wynn model at tackle, Dawand Jones seems a better fit.

2nd Round: 46th overall

There are a lot of intriguing names as the second-round pick comes up.

Calijah Kancey (DT Pittsburgh), Gervon Dexter (DT Florida) and Siaki Ika (DT Baylor) are available as teams are avoiding this group of limited defensive tackles.

Zay Flowers (WR Boston College) and Dalton Kincaid (TE Utah) highlight the pass catchers.

Derick Hall (EDGE Auburn), Keion White (EDGE Georgia Tech) and Andre Carter II (EDGE Army) highlight the deep group of edge rushers in the draft.

JL Skinner (S Boise State), Deonte Banks (CB Maryland) and Emmanuel Forbes (CB Mississippi State) are available if targeting the secondary.

Finally, Cody Mauch (OT North Dakota State) is there in case of a desire to double-dip at tackle.

With the 46th overall pick, the New England Patriots select…

Dalton Kincaid, tight end, Utah

No one loves Zay Flowers like I do after following his career at Boston College, but the need is for a young outside receiver to pair with last year’s second round draft pick, Tyquan Thornton. 

With Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki signed through this current season, there is a need for depth at tight end. Fortunately, the draft is deep, and Kincaid should be a perfect fit in a Bill O’Brien offense as a move tight end in the event Gesicki leaves after one season.

Kincaid has decent size, great hands and is athletic and fast. He could be a match-up nightmare for opponents in the New England offense for years to come. Because of the depth at tight end in the draft, Kincaid is a top-30 talent available in the middle of the second round.

3rd Round: 76th overall (from Panthers)

Uh-oh, Patriots Nation. The phone is ringing, and the New England front office is dealing again. This time, the 76th overall pick is in sight and the Denver Broncos and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are making offers. 

Denver is looking to move up from 99th overall and offering the 108th pick to jump to 76. Tampa Bay is at trade back just six picks with the sweetener of a 2024 fourth-round draft pick. 

Not wanting to move too far back and already having pick 107 overall in the fourth round lined up and 11 more draft picks this year, it makes sense to take the fourth-round pick next year. I did try to counter for an additional 2024 pick, but no dice as Tampa Bay stood firm on their offer.

With the 82nd overall pick, the New England Patriots select…

Warren McClendon, offensive tackle, Georgia

Another tackle? With Brown on the decline and with the mess that was right tackle last season, the Patriots have to treat the offensive line as the priority. Drafting receivers and not being able to protect Mac Jones makes no sense. The regression at tackle last season had a lot (not all, but a lot) to do with the struggles from Jones.

McClendon is not a perfect prospect, but this is the third round. Even top-10 picks are 50-50 gambles (Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, Jeff Okudah, Clelin Ferrell, Josh Rosen, John Ross, Solomon Thomas…the list goes on and on).

Doubling up at a position in the draft is a strategy that the Patriots had remarkable success within past drafts. Deion Branch and David Givens at wide receiver in 2002 paid dividends, as did cornerbacks Eugene Wilson and Asante Samuel in 2003. The Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez double-up at tight end in 2010 and Shane Vereen and Steven Ridley at running back in 2011 re-ignited the offense in the post-Randy Moss era. 

McClendon will need some coaching up from new offensive line coach Adrian Klemm. However, McClendon has the size and short-area quickness needed to thrive at tackle. A year in the weight room and getting coached up on fundamentals and he could be a starter in 2024.

Okay, for the rest of these picks, let’s go rapid fire as otherwise, it will take a week to read this mock draft:

4th Round: 107th overall (from L.A. Rams)

Zach Harrison, edge rusher, Ohio State

He has the length (six-foot-five) and size (274 lbs.) that Belichick loves to combat the running game. More of a tweener like Deitrich Wise Jr. who fits in New England’s defense better than most 4-3 defenses in the NFL. 

New England does not have a huge need at the edge rusher position, but with Matt Judon and Josh Uche in the final year of their contract and Anfernee Jennings and Ronnie Perkins still question marks, adding another edge/OLB makes sense. Harrison has the ideal size to slot in at either 3-4 end or on the edge.

4th Round: 115th Overall

Michael Wilson, wide receiver, Stanford

Wilson fits the profile of the outside receiver to eventually replace DeVante Parker. With good size (six-foot-two), strength (a willing run blocker) and special teams ability (was a gunner on special teams at Stanford) he checks all the boxes for what the Patriots are looking for at wide receiver. Multiple injuries at Stanford have knocked Wilson down the board, but he could be a bargain if he stays healthy.

4th Round: 117th Overall

DeMarvion Overshown, linebacker, Texas

Overshown was a consideration at pick 107 and pick 115 and I was ecstatic he lasted until this pick. Overshown is a former safety who was a late bloomer at the position as he took time to adjust to linebacker at Texas. That faster nickel/dime linebacker who is a plus in coverage (sorry Mack Wilson, you’re just not it) and still a downhill force in the running game is needed in New England. Overshown is still developing and could be it.

4th Round: 135th overall (compensation pick)

Wait, another trade down? Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler from the Raiders are calling and a trade down six spots in the fourth round and move from the end of the seventh round to the sixth round is too enticing. Pick #135 goes to Las Vegas along with seventh-round pick #245 overall for pick #141 in the fourth round and a sixth-round pick (#204 overall).

4th Round: 141st Overall

Mekhi Garner, slot cornerback/safety, LSU

Garner fits the New England secondary as a multi-faceted match-up piece. Is he a cornerback? Is he a fit at safety? Garner would be another swing at finding a big cornerback to cover tight ends on passing downs or big slot wide receivers (size is lacking in the secondary). He may fit as a safety as well and be a big hitter over the middle.

5th Round: 160th overall (from Giants)

Garrett Williams, cornerback, Syracuse

Williams drops to the fifth round and the Patriots have this draft pick because New England acquired it from the Giants as part of the compensation moving back in the first round.  Williams looked like a top-75 pick last year before a torn ACL ended his season. He is average-sized but is a strong tackler, especially in the running game (necessary for New England cornerbacks). He’s a gamble to draft, but that’s often how these late-round picks are intended to be used. 

6th Round: 184th overall (from Raiders)

Deuce Vaughn, running back, Kansas State

The Patriots have lacked a third-down running back since James White retired. The quality quartet of receiving backs reigned supreme in New England for over 20 years with Kevin Faulk, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen and White bailing Tom Brady out of trouble on third down. 

Vaughn could be next in line despite being just five-foot-five and 179 lbs. He has soft hands and runs routes well. He is tough but seriously undersized. Still, he is explosive and fearless inside the tackles and could be a weapon in the right system.

6th Round: 187th overall (from Panthers)

Nick Broeker, offensive guard, Ole Miss

New England is set at the starting positions on the interior offensive line, but depth is a legitimate concern. Broeker is a lunch-bucket guy on the interior who is not built for zone-running schemes. In the downhill attack with Rhamondre Stevenson behind him, Broeker is a much better fit. 

6th Round: 192nd overall

Aidan O’Connell, quarterback, Purdue

O’Connell is a bit of an enigma. Some scouting services have a third-round grade on him, others see him as a priority undrafted free agent. Going into the draft with four sixth-round draft picks (and picking up another in this simulation), it makes sense to grab a potential back-up. 

O’Connell to New England makes sense–he’s a pure pocket passer with an average arm. He’s not running around outside the pocket and launching deep shots but is extremely accurate and plays under center in a pro-style offense. That sounds like the kind of quarterback New England would draft.

6th Round: 204th overall (from Raiders)

Shaka Heyward, linebacker, Duke

One of the biggest surprises of free agency was New England bringing back the entire inside linebacker group from last season. Raekwon McMillan, Mack Wilson, Jahani Tavai and Ja’Whaun Bentley all return (they did add Olakunle Fatukasi–aka “O-Three”–someone to watch in training camp and brother of Foley Fatukasi, a dominant run-stuffing defensive tackle in Jacksonville). 

Heyward has good length (six-foot-three) and while solid, could add some weight at just 235 lbs. However, his tackling skills jump off the tape as once he’s locked up a ball carrier, he brings him down. He needs further development and some extra size, but he contributed on special teams at Duke and that could be his ticket to a roster spot in New England.

6th Round: 210th overall (compensation pick)

Brock Martin, edge rusher, Oklahoma State

Martin checks the boxes with good length and size at six-foot-two and 240 lbs. but is a little lighter than most New England edge rushers. He profiles as a good fit for the defense as a 3-4 outside linebacker and has good feet and quickness. He has shown the ability to drop into coverage and play sideline to sideline with excellent range. 

Martin could bring some athleticism to a defense that needs it.

7th Round: 245th overall (from Bills through Falcons)

Nesta Jade Silvera, defensive tackle, Arizona State

Rounding out the draft, the Patriots add a little size with Silvera. Silvera has a strong motor and plays with an edge. He needs to spend some time with defensive line coach DeMarcus Covington to clean up some technique so he doesn’t get swallowed up inside but could be a reliable gap-plugger in the future.

MOCK DRAFT RECAP

The Patriots in this mock draft may have traded down more than the average fan would like but coming away with fourteen total picks and three 2024 picks (including the Giants’ first-round pick) is a huge win.

The Patriots doubled up at offensive tackle, edge rusher and linebacker. Depth was added throughout with about every position grouping adding a player to the mix via the draft. 

First-round pick offensive tackle Dawand Jones should compete for the right tackle position immediately and second-round pick tight end Dalton Kincaid should be in the mix for snaps at tight end in multiple tight-end formations once he is up to speed.

While not the splashiest players or the biggest names from the biggest schools, these players all fit the defense and offense. The emphasis was trying to find players that seemed like players New England would draft.