New England Patriots 2023 Mock Draft 3.0

The New England Patriots are closing in on the 2023 NFL Draft and, after floundering the past three seasons despite a huge 2021 free agency investment, are in desperate need of taking the next step back to competing in a loaded AFC East. To do so, they must continue to find impact players in the NFL Draft.

RECENT DRAFTS

Last year, New England traded down and grabbed starting left guard Cole Strange near the end of the first round. Along with second-round pick wide receiver Tyquan Thornton, the Patriots added two pieces to the offense who are expected to be contributors in 2023 and beyond.

The stars of the draft were the two cornerbacks: third-round draft pick Marcus Jones and fourth-round draft pick Jack Jones. 

Marcus Jones was an All-Pro as returner, ended the season as the starting slot cornerback displacing Myles Bryant, and even was a contributor on offense seeing time in gadget packages. 

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Jack Jones was a starter on the outside and had the highlight of a career with a pick-six of future Hall-of-Fame quarterback. Jones tailed off after a great start and an injury and dispute with the team over his rehabilitation led to an ugly end of the season. However, he and fellow 2022 draft pick Marcus Jones should once again join holdover Jonathan Jones to give the Patriots an all-Jones starting cornerbacks in 2023.

“Zappe Fever” was real, and the fourth-round draft pick is a solid backup at quarterback to Mac Jones. The running backs drafted, speedster Pierre Strong and bruiser Kevin Harris, will get their shot to contribute in 2024 backing up Rhamondre Stevenson with Damien Harris leaving for Buffalo in free agency. 

2022 DRAFT PICKS

In the 2021 NFL Draft, it all starts with Mac Jones. After a great rookie season ending with him doing “the griddy” in the Pro Bowl (“Mayim, I’ll take phrases I couldn’t conceive typing 20 years ago for $800, please”), Jones was let down by the Matt Patricia/Joe Judge offensive game plan and a high ankle sprain that derailed him early in the season.

Despite the adversity, Jones played much better down the stretch and should show significant improvement in 2023 with, you know, a “real” offensive coordinator in the meeting rooms and on the sideline.

Injuries derailed second-round pick Christian Barmore in 2022 as well after a strong rookie season. Third-round draft pick Ronnie Perkins had another redshirt season and the young pass rusher may need to shine in training camp to make the roster.

Fourth-round draft pick Rhamondre Stevenson continued to grow in 2022. He wrestled the top-running back role from Harris convincingly and became a weapon in the passing game leading the team with a “Gronk-approved” 69 receptions. 

2021 DRAFT PICKS

AFC EAST = AFC bEASTs

With two strong drafts under their belts, the Patriots have pressure to add a third. As the third level of the Belichick Dynasty (Dynasty I: 2000-2006; Dynasty II: 2007-2013; Dynasty III: 2014-2019) ended, a change came across the AFC East.

Unlike the past two decades, Buffalo, Miami and the Jets got their $&!+ together and fielded competitive teams. One amazing part of the Patriots’ success for two decades was the laughingstock failures of those three teams consistently shooting themselves in the foot and unable to challenge the Patriots.

BUFFALO

The Bills did a slow build with Sean McDermott putting in place a hard-nosed defense and hitting a grand slam with quarterback Josh Allen. The Bills have built a strong defense in the image of McDermott and his Carolina defenses. 

Solid drafting has added impact players to the offense and built the offensive line to let Allen shine. Stefon Diggs added the final piece of the puzzle on offense and made the Bills a legitimate Super Bowl contender the past three seasons.

MIAMI

The Dolphins–still actively sabotaging themselves due to an idiot in the owner’s box–still managed to build a solid team with some amazing value from trades and building through the draft. Their trade of Laremy Tunsil to Houston is still paying dividends 

Last year’s addition via trade of Tyreek Hill put the league on notice that Miami is capable of beating anyone–if they can keep Tua Tagalovoia upright.

NEW YORK

The Jets, after 50 years of wandering in the desert, finally took advantage of impulsive owner Woody Johnson cashing in a favor from Donald Trump and landing an ambassador role and imported a general manager and head coach with a plan to rebuild slowly and correctly.

The Jets may have whiffed at quarterback with Zach Wilson, but they may someday complete the trade with Green Bay and bring Rogers into the fold. With playmakers all over the field on offense and defense, the steady hand of Robert Saleh at head coach, and Joe Douglas making intelligent moves in the front office, they may make the step into the upper echelon of AFC teams in 2023.

The Patriots never had this type of talent, strong leadership, and competition in the AFC East the past two decades. That puts even more pressure on the scouts and Belichick in the 2023 NFL Draft to continue to add playmakers to both sides of the ball to keep up in the loaded AFC East. 

PATRIOTS 2023 DRAFT STRATEGY

The game plan (which has played out across all the prior mock drafts Mock Draft 1.0 and Mock Drafts 2.1 through 2.5) has been focused on the urgent needs for New England. Forget when idiots on television say: “Teams shouldn’t draft for needs.’

Hello McFly, ALL NFL teams draft for needs. Picking the best player is only for teams with rosters overflowing with talent and a current Super Bowl contender (which are rare).

OFFENSIVE TACKLE:

The Patriots have offensive tackle as a position of need in need of young talent to develop for this season to keep Mac Jones protected and particularly 2024. Right tackle was a mess last season due to injuries and ineffectiveness. At left tackle, Trent Brown struggled mightily and is in the last year of his contract. Adding to this position for 2024 and beyond is necessary.

PASS CATCHERS:

The wide receivers this year are weak compared to 2022 but the depth at tight end is amazing. There are potential starting tight ends of all makes and models. They can be found from round one through seven. The Patriots have two tight ends in the last year of their deal, so grabbing a tight end is necessary. 

The wide receivers all have flaws, but New England grabbing a wideout with size would help the offense. Tyquan Thornton flashed at times last year, but once again, for the decade-plus since Randy Moss shot his way out of town, the Patriots need a true number one receiver to put fear in opposing defensive coordinators.

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CORNERBACK:

On defense, cornerback is a desperate need with size concerns for Jonathan and Marcus Jones and off-field concerns with Jack Jones. There is a ton of talent at cornerback in the 2023 NFL Draft, from top to bottom. There’s amazing depth into the middle rounds at cornerback where New England can grab a developmental prospect with size to get coached up for 2024.

LINEBACKER:

After having two decades of dominant linebackers, I have given up trying to figure out what Belichick is doing at linebacker the past few seasons. This year he ran back last year’s mismatched unit to a man.

The Patriots, with linebacker Jerod Mayo as de facto co-defensive coordinator, should be stocking that position with tackling machines who clog the middle of the field with sticky fingers and big hits to force opposing offenses to throw outside the numbers. Instead, they have a mish-mosh of special teamers out there running around and not doing much else.

SAFETY:

Yes, the Patriots have a ton of safeties, but all of them seem to be box safeties who play best closer to the line of scrimmage. None of them seem to be a centerfielder with pass coverage skills and straight-line speed. 

Free safety could be a huge concern in 2023 with Devin McCourty retired. There are some solid slot cornerback/safety hybrids available in the second or third-round range who should be targeted. However, with Belichick’s love of hybrid strong safeties, my guess is he just runs out four or five at a time on defense with no free safety or linebackers or something equally ridiculous (or genius if it works against Josh Allen). 

MOCK DRAFT 3.0

OK, enough preamble. Let’s get down to the brass tacks. As usual, the mock draft engine is the ProFootballNetwork Mock Draft simulator. They recently added a limited function to include rostered players in draft pick trades, which adds another element to the mock draft.

Again, unlike PFF (not requiring a subscription) and NFL Mock Draft Database, PFN’s mock draft simulator has realistic trades based on the current draft pick value. In addition, strange moves, lopsided pick trades and head-scratching picks are exceedingly rare. In short, it’s the best I’ve found to use and will stick to it.

MOCK DRAFT PICKS MADE:

ANALYSIS:

As always, remember that I am trying to mock draft picks based on what the Patriots’ scouts and Belichick will do, not what I personally would do as GM in the draft room.

ROUND 1:

The Giants and Chiefs tried to trade up to 14 in this simulation and the Bears offered a boatload of future picks to get back in the first round. However, my inner Bill Belichick was not tempted and instead drafted the only wide receiver worthy of a top-15 grade in this draft. 

In this simulation, Anthony Richardson was a surprising drop, running back Bijan Robinson was still on the board, and there was a run at cornerback and offensive tackles in the prior picks 1-13. It made it too easy a decision to stay and to grab Smith-Njigba at 14th overall.

ROUND 2:

Tough call here in round two with a couple intriguing players on the board. Slot wide receiver Josh Downs, Georgia tight end Darnell Washington, Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid, Mississippi State cornerback Emmanuel Forbes, Iowa linebacker Jack Campell, Tennessee quarterback prospect Hendon Hooker and Northwestern edge rusher Adetomiwa Adebawore were all on the board for this pick.

However, with tight end such a need and a first-round talent (he’s in my top-25) in Utah’s Dalton Kincaid dropping inexplicably, it is an easy decision to get the best player who profiles as a long-term pass-catching weapon at a position of need with Mike Gesicki on a one-year deal and Hunter Henry a free agent after 2023.

ROUND 3: 

Again, intriguing trade-up options from Tampa Bay and Minnesota were tempting, but the Patriots stood firm and made the pick at 76th overall. This may have been the most difficult pick of the mock draft.

Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs, Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker, Oklahoma wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. and Florida defensive tackle Gervon Dexter were all on the board despite expectations all four would have been long gone by now.

However, the run early in the draft on offensive tackles left few options and the Patriots had to reach a little to restock the needed position. Georgia’s Warren McClendon is still a potential 2024 starter and good value–especially with the position depleted in the first seventy-five picks–in the third round.

ROUND 4:

Stanford cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly adds size at cornerback with the first pick in round four. Doubling up at offensive tackle or wide receiver was tempting. Also, realizing a lot of depth at running back piling up on the draft board.

A sigh of relief at pick #117 as Alabama tackle Tyler Steen remains on the board. A third-round grade for Steen seemed appropriate pre-draft, so having him fall to the middle of the fourth round is a bonus.

With the last pick of the round, at #135 the Patriots get another break and athletic Texas linebacker Demarvion Overshown, a top-100 talent, is still on the board. I don’t know what Belichick is doing at linebacker anymore, but Overshown can contribute on special teams, is versatile to play on the edge or inside, and has speed and athleticism–which is something desperately needed on defense.

ROUND 5:

No picks, no trade-ups, nothing to see here. Take a nap and set an alarm for when the sixth round starts.

ROUND 6:

Multiple picks again. Somehow, someway, I have resisted the urge to trade up and down the board. Six rounds in and nary a trade? I’m amazed at my restraint.

At 184th overall, the depth at tight end was too much to ignore. Michigan’s Luke Schoonmaker, Purdue’s Payne Durham, Louisville’s Marshon Ford and Cincinnati’s Josh Whyle were all available and all have distinct strengths and weaknesses. Schoonmaker does everything well, just nothing spectacular. A solid blocker, he can play inline or spread, is a good route-runner who has great hands but is not a big yards-after-catch guy. A solid TE2 value.

At 187th overall, an excellent value at guard with NC State’s Chandler Zavala. This is not a position of need, but with a fourth-round grade, I couldn’t pass up the chance to get a potential 2025 starter here. 

At 192nd overall, I had to finally pull the trigger on a potential free safety. Ward started at safety, slot cornerback and outside cornerback at LSU. He is a high character in the locker room, could contribute on special teams, and adds the position/scheme versatility that Bill Belichick loves for his defense. 

Finally, at pick 210, bursting at seams to mock Kansas State’s undersized running back Deuce Vaughn to the Patriots, I instead stuck with the draft board and took another undersized running back with a better fit in the offense. Still trying to replace James White’s role, East Carolina’s small (but not as small as Vaughn) running back Keaton Mitchell is the pick here.

Mitchell averaged 7.2 yards per rush and has several moves to juke tacklers out of their cleats. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and the straight-line speed to be a home run threat if he gets to the sideline. He could be the third down or change-of-pace back in New England. 

ROUND 7:

One last pick at 245th overall, and if I were picking instead of my inner Bill Belichick, it would be Louisville quarterback/Swiss army knife Malik Cunningham. However, undersized quarterbacks in a slash role went out of style in New England in 2000 when Belichick arrived (where have you gone, Michael Bishop? You’ll always be the most beloved back-up quarterback in New England, no matter what Scott Zolak thinks). 

Somehow, Wisconsin edge rusher Nick Herbig is on the board. I have a fourth-round grade on him so he’s an easy pick. Herbig is a tweener and many teams don’t see him as an edge rusher. He’s limited playing on the inside and most teams see him as not fitting their scheme. That sounds like the kind of player Bill Belichick should be able to find a use for on defense.

FINAL NOTES:

Here’s the breakdown of the Mock Draft picks by position:

Realistically, I can’t see Smith-Njigba being available at 14th overall, but no one knows how the top picks will play out. However, it is plausible that multiple quarterbacks, edge rushers and tackles fly off the board in the first 13 picks leaving the Patriots with the top wide receiver in the draft.

Smith-Njigba is no Jamarr Chase, but he outperformed Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave at Ohio State in 2021 when they all played together. He would slot in as the Deion Branch type of middle-of-the-field and deep edge receiver that New England has lacked. His ability to get open would be a welcome addition to the offense for Mac Jones.

Dalton Kincaid in the second round is puzzling as well, but again the board saw a ton of cornerbacks and wide receivers coming off the board in the 20-45 range, which is realistic with the team needs and depth at those positions. He could seamlessly replace Gesicki in 2024 as the slot cornerback and the offense would not miss a beat.

Two impact players on offense, desperately needed depth at tackle, some intriguing tweeners that Belichick should get the most out of on defense. Excellent value with players dropping and no panic moves. I call that a decent draft that should help New England in 2023 and beyond.