Kansas City Chiefs: Projecting 2023 Passing, Receiving Production

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The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the easier picks each season to be one of the more pass-heavy attacks on offense. With a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes, along with an offensive-minded head coach like Andy Reid, Kansas City is seemingly never hesitant to continue airing it out all over the yard. The Chiefs defied many offensive questions last year, following the trade of Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. With no true WR1-type of pass catcher at the wide receiver position, KC still led the league in points scored and total yards on offense.

With that in mind, there may be no true limit on the passing and receiving production for the Kansas City Chiefs offense. So long as Mahomes is playing at the elite level that he is currently, there appears to be a plethora of options for which to beat defenses.

What could the passing and receiving production possibly look like for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2023? Today, we will look back on recent history and trends, along with estimations for potential offensive roles to help us make our projections. Let’s kick it off.

Looking Back At Recent Production Leads To Projection Baseline

To help us make our projections for 2023, we wanted to look back at the averages and true totals of both Mahomes and the Chiefs pass catchers. Looking back at recent history certainly created an easier path, in terms of who could be leading Kansas City in targets this upcoming season. Let’s quickly look through what Mahomes and his weapons have done in the last few seasons.

Patrick Mahomes

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2018: 580 Pass Attempts, 383 Completions, Completion Percentage of 66 percent, 5,097 Passing Yards, 50 Passing Touchdowns

2019: 484 Pass Attempts, 319 Completions, Completion Percentage of 65.9 percent, 4,031 Passing Yards, 26 Passing Touchdowns

2020: 588 Pass Attempts, 390 Completions, Completion Percentage of 66.3 percent, 4,740 Passing Yards, 38 Passing Touchdowns

2021: 658 Pass Attempts, 436 Completions, Completion Percentage of 66.3 percent, 4,839 Passing Yards, 37 Passing Touchdowns

2022: 648 Pass Attempts, 435 Completions, Completion Percentage of 67.1 percent, 5,250 Passing Yards, 41 Passing Touchdowns

Averages Per Season: 591.6 Pass Attempts, 392.6 Completions, Completion Percentage of 66.36 percent, 4,791.4 Passing Yards, 38.4 Passing Touchdowns

As you can see, Mahomes has reached at least 580 passing attempts in four of five seasons as the Chiefs starting quarterback. The lone year that he did not reach that number was when he missed four games with a freak knee injury, of course. His completion percentage numbers have never truly moved much. It seems like such a high bar to project Mahomes to reach at least 5,000 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns again. Yet, it is simply too hard to envision him falling below 600 pass attempts, based on the last two seasons. As a result, our 2023 projections for Mahomes are as follows, listed below.

2023 Projections For Mahomes

629 Pass Attempts, 420 Completions, Completion Percentage of 66.77 percent, 5,187 Passing Yards, 43 Passing Touchdowns

Travis Kelce

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2018: 150 Targets, 103 Receptions, 1,336 Receiving Yards, 10 Receiving Touchdowns

2019: 136 Targets, 97 Receptions, 1,229 Receiving Yards, 5 Receiving Touchdowns

2020: 145 Targets, 105 Receptions, 1,416 Receiving Yards, 11 Receiving Touchdowns

2021: 134 Targets, 92 Receptions, 1,125 Receiving Yards, 9 Receiving Touchdowns

2022: 152 Targets, 110 Receptions, 1,338 Receiving Yards, 12 Receiving Touchdowns

Averages Per Season: 143.4 Targets, 101.4 Receptions, 1,288.8 Receiving Yards, 9.4 Receiving Touchdowns

As much as Travis Kelce has been dominant for nearly his entire career, we wanted to look back on his numbers only with Mahomes as the starter. It is pretty interesting to see how close his numbers have been year after year. It is no surprise that he is the security blanket and top target among Kansas City pass catchers. As a result, we project him to lead the way massively in a similar fashion to the last handful of seasons.

2023 Projections For Kelce

144 Targets, 101 Receptions, 1,260 Receiving Yards, 11 Receiving Touchdowns

Chiefs Wide Receiver Room

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Kadarius Toney (2022, 7 games with KC): 17 Targets, 14 Receptions, 171 Receiving Yards, 2 Receiving Touchdowns

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2022, 17 games with KC): 81 Targets, 42 Receptions, 687 Receiving Yards, 2 Receiving Touchdowns

Skyy Moore (2022, 16 games with KC): 33 Targets, 22 Receptions, 250 Receiving Yards, 0 Receiving Touchdowns

Richie James (2022, 17 games with New York Giants): 70 Targets, 57 Receptions, 569 Receiving Yards, 4 Receiving Touchdowns

Justin Watson (2022, 17 games with KC): 34 Targets, 15 Receptions, 315 Receiving Yards, 2 Receiving Touchdowns

The Chiefs wide receiver room will be able to have Kadarius Toney for a full season this time around. Injuries have been a factor, though, which led to a projection of him possibly missing three games in 2023. Kansas City will have Marquez Valdes-Scantling in a similar role. However, Skyy Moore will be looking to take a massive step forward in his second season. Richie James could end up being a bargain addition in a depth role. Finally, rookie draft pick Rashee Rice should factor in a bit as well, given the Chiefs generally spread the wealth all over the place. Rookies have generally been slow starters under Coach Reid, obviously. Here are our 2023 projections for the Kansas City wide receiver room, listed in order of most targets to least targets.

2023 Projections For Chiefs Wide Receiver Room

Kadarius Toney: 90 Targets, 62 Receptions, 868 Receiving Yards, 8 Receiving Touchdowns

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 77 Targets, 51 Receptions, 746 Receiving Yards, 5 Receiving Touchdowns

Skyy Moore: 66 Targets, 42 Receptions, 517 Receiving Yards, 4 Receiving Touchdowns

Richie James: 44 Targets, 30 Receptions, 432 Receiving Yards, 3 Receiving Touchdowns

Rashee Rice: 29 Targets, 17 Receptions, 311 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown

Justin Watson: 26 Targets, 12 Receptions, 202 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown

Chiefs Running Backs

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Jerick McKinnon

2021: 20 Targets, 13 Receptions, 107 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown

2022: 71 Targets, 56 Receptions, 512 Receiving Yards, 9 Receiving Touchdowns

Averages Per Season: 45.5 Targets, 34.5 Receptions, 309.5 Receiving Yards, 5 Receiving Touchdowns

Isiah Pacheco

2022: 14 Targets, 13 Receptions, 130 Receiving Yards, 0 Receiving Touchdowns

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

2020 (13 games played): 54 Targets, 36 Receptions, 297 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown

2021 (10 games played): 23 Targets, 19 Receptions, 129 Receiving Yards, 2 Receiving Touchdowns

2022 (10 games played): 23 Targets, 17 Receptions, 151 Receiving Yards, 3 Receiving Touchdowns

Averages Per Season: 33.33 Targets, 24 Receptions, 192.3 Receiving Yards, 2 Receiving Touchdowns

Jerick McKinnon is probably the most well-rounded receiving threat among the Chiefs running backs. His touchdown production from last year is a hard line to match again this time around. It would not be surprising to see him get most of the third down reps, nevertheless. Isiah Pacheco improved as a pass catcher as the season got deeper last year. Perhaps, he sees a fair spike in 2023. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is in a challenging spot within the offensive depth chart. We do not expect him to receive more total snaps than these other two running backs. In the end, we think most of his opportunities may come as a pass catcher, in what may be his final year with the Chiefs.

2023 Projections For Chiefs Running Backs

Jerick McKinnon: 39 Targets, 29 Receptions, 238 Receiving Yards, 3 Receiving Touchdowns

Isiah Pacheco: 33 Targets, 26 Receptions, 168 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 19 Targets, 10 Receptions, 88 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown

Chiefs Depth Tight Ends

Noah Gray

2021: 10 Targets, 7 Receptions, 36 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown

2022: 34 Targets, 28 Receptions, 299 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown

Averages Per Season: 22 Targets, 17.5 Receptions, 167.5 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown

Jody Fortson

2021 (6 games played): 5 Targets, 5 Receptions, 47 Receiving Yards, 2 Receiving Touchdowns

2022 (13 games played): 13 Targets, 9 Receptions, 108 Receiving Yards, 2 Receiving Touchdowns

Averages Per Season: 9 Targets, 7 Receptions, 77.5 Receiving Yards, 2 Receiving Touchdowns

Blake Bell

2019 (with KC): 15 Targets, 8 Receptions, 67 Receiving Yards, 0 Receiving Touchdowns

2020 (with Dallas): 15 Targets, 11 Receptions, 110 Receiving Yards, 0 Receiving Touchdowns

2021 (with KC): 13 Targets, 9 Receptions, 87 Receiving Yards, 0 Receiving Touchdowns

2022 (with KC): 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 20 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving Touchdown

The Chiefs have started to use multiple tight end sets more often with the loss of Tyreek Hill. That proved to be a lethal attack when multiple tight ends were utilized last season. That was especially true for the Chiefs when Kansas City was in the red zone, to boot. We are not expecting massive amounts of production from this trio. A nice, little chunk will still be projected for Noah Gray, Jody Fortson and Blake Bell, however.

2023 Projections For Chiefs Depth Tight Ends

Noah Gray: 32 Targets, 21 Receptions, 202 Receiving Yards, 3 Receiving Touchdowns

Jody Fortson: 19 Targets, 11 Receptions, 103 Receiving Yards, 2 Receiving Touchdowns

Blake Bell: 11 Targets, 8 Receptions, 52 Receiving Yards, 0 Receiving Touchdowns

Be on the lookout for more FPC Chiefs articles and analysis throughout this week. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.

– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.