Braden’s Best Bets: NFL Week 1

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The 2023 NFL regular season kicked off last night with an upset. A Detroit Lions team receiving plenty of hype walked into Kansas City and beat the Chiefs on the national stage. However, that was just an appetizer to what looks to be a Week 1 slate filled with a plethora of juicy matchups.

We have some fascinating division matchups out of the gate. We have some big-name players making their debut with a new team in a primetime window. Additionally, this Week 1 slate features other potential upsets, similar to what we saw on opening night.

Who has the best odds of pulling off a Week 1 upset? Which teams hold betting value to possibly cover handily as a favorite? It is time to list my favorite plays of the week, with my favorite bets for teams with either the moneyline or the spread. To boot, I will also list a handful of player props that stand out for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. Let’s kick it off.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

Best Bets: Moneyline

Of course, we are not going to list every team for the moneyline category. It is also important to note that we are looking to list the bets that hold the most value out of our given options. With that in mind, here are three teams that I like to win straight up in Week 1, who also hold a fair amount of betting value.

Pittsburgh Steelers: +110 Odds

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Opening up against the 49ers is a bit of a nervous challenge. San Francisco obviously feels comfortable sending Brock Purdy out there right away, even with his injury at the end of last year. In the meantime, if there is any defense that can match the speed and physicality of the 49ers, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is also a daunting environment to play in for San Francisco after how last season ended. The Steelers look impressive and could surprise the 49ers.

New York Giants: +145 Odds

Recent history has not always been pretty for the New York Giants against their division rival Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has won four consecutive matchups in this series, as well as 11 of the last 12 meetings. You may not love those trends, especially when it comes to betting the moneyline. All told, this is a much tougher Giants team than past years. Led by a fierce head coach in Brian Daboll, an improving quarterback in Daniel Jones and a stingy defensive scheme with defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, New York can put pressure on the Cowboys in a multitude of ways. Dallas has also received a fair amount of hype by some entering 2023. Wouldn’t that just be a classic opening for the Cowboys to then fall flat in Week 1?

New York Jets: +114 Odds

Another win for a New York team playing a home game at MetLife Stadium this weekend? The hype around the Jets may be too much for some bettors to handle. Though, Aaron Rodgers is feeling comfortable and is having fun in his new environment. This is a passer that plays with so much confidence and pettiness to prove others wrong. Perhaps, some added motivation for his Jets debut, along with Buffalo having a bit more holes than past years, and I like the Jets to end Week 1 victorious.

Best Bets: Spread

Betting on teams to cover the spread is not always about taking someone who you feel should easily cover, whether that is the favorite or the underdog. However, finding teams that play hard or matchups that have historically been close are key. Finding the number that you believe is possibly too low or too high is also key. You can then thread the needle on either side of the betting odds with whoever you believe holds the better betting value. Here are three teams that offer fair betting value in Week 1 when looking at the spread.

Cincinnati Bengals: -2 at Cleveland Browns

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History tells you that for whatever reason the Cleveland Browns have given Joe Burrow fits. He is just 1-4 against them in his career so far. In fact, that lone victory just came in the latest of the five outings against the Browns. Despite those numbers, I like the Bengals in spread, simply because of the number alone. The spread has been dropping, and it already moved from 2.5 to 2 today. With questions about Deshaun Watson‘s performance, and Cincinnati’s relative health, this feels like a worthy bet for the Bengals to cover. The spread has just dropped so much, you have to take it if you believe the Bengals win.

Philadelphia Eagles: -4 at New England Patriots

We know how good the Patriots defense can be. However, the dominance of the Eagles offensive line, combined with the playmakers in the passing game, makes this a favorable matchup for Philadelphia. New England cannot be any worse than they were last year offensively. Though, matching the Eagles offense and attempting to keep up with them out of the gate may be too tall of a task. Once again, I think the spread is small enough that you should feel comfortable with Philadelphia.

New York Jets: +2.5 vs Buffalo Bills

Threading the needle on this spread may be too tight for some people out there. Buffalo is probably licking their chops that they are not necessarily the Super Bowl favorite, unlike last year. In the end, the Jets have upgraded on offense. Their defense only allowed 37 combined points to the Bills last year. Once again, New York could find success in putting pressure on Josh Allen like they did last season.

Favorite Player Props

Player prop bets can sometimes be tricky to find the perfect betting value. Some star players do not consistently produce at a high clip, especially at the beginning of the season. Nonetheless, here are four player prop bets that I enjoy for the opening weekend.

Christian Kirk: Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

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The Indianapolis Colts simply have a lot of inexperience in their secondary. That could bode well for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense. While a lot of jokes were made about the contract he signed with Jacksonville, Christian Kirk was a reliable source of production for the Jags last season. He led the team in receiving yards (1,108), targets (133), receptions (84) and receiving touchdowns (eight) in 2022. Kirk would have hit the over on 49.5 receiving yards in 10 games last year. To boot, he was only 10 yards short of hitting that in three other contests. I think he picks up right where he left off.

George Pickens: Over 42.5 Receiving Yards

Diontae Johnson is a fine wide receiver. But overall, he has moments that leave you scratching your head. The Steelers offense looks to be much improved entering Kenny Pickett‘s second career season. At the same time, Pickett has already built a solid chemistry with George Pickens. This younger receiver can make tight catches in traffic and come down with the most difficult of grabs. Given the rapport that he and Pickett have constructed, I like Pickens to get the over somewhat comfortably on Sunday, despite the strong 49ers defense.

Jamaal Williams: Over 48.5 Rushing Yards

As everyone knows, the New Orleans Saints will be without Alvin Kamara to open the regular season, due to his suspension. That leaves the door open for a tough, hard-nosed runner in Jamaal Williams. He was a key leader for Detroit last season. Now in New Orleans, Williams will be playing with an offensive line that can match the tenacity of the Tennessee Titans defense. Assuming this game remains as close as some expect, or if the Saints control the game, Williams could have a steady diet of touches to hit the over on 48.5 rushing yards.

AJ Dillon: Over 41.5 Rushing Yards

The Green Bay Packers will likely be leaning on their powerful pair of running backs, once again. Of the two names, this number intrigues me a lot for AJ Dillon. Chicago did make a lot of changes to their linebacker room. Yet, Dillon and the Packers still hold a major advantage over a Bears defensive line that has some holes. If Dillon gets the workload that most expect, I believe he will hit the over for this rushing yards total.

Be on the lookout for more FPC NFL betting articles throughout this 2023 NFL season. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.

– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.