Braden’s Best Bets: NFL Week 3

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As we look at Week 3 of the 2023 NFL schedule, we once again have plenty of juicy matchups to look forward to. Some more toss-up games will lead to plenty of intrigue. Meanwhile, some teams that had playoff aspirations are already in an 0-2 hole to open the year. If they are not able to make a statement this week, their hopes for any postseason play are all but dashed.

In terms of betting, there are many exciting options. This is true of both moneyline and spread picks. Plus, some players have advantageous one-on-one matchups this week. That could lead to immense production for some of the league’s top stars, as a result. We will touch on that more with this week’s favorite player props.

Who has the best odds of pulling off an upset in Week 3? Which teams hold betting value to possibly cover as a favorite? It is time to list my favorite plays of the week, with my favorite bets for teams with either the moneyline or the spread. To boot, I will also list a few player props that stand out for Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season. Let’s kick it off.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

Best Bets: Moneyline

Of course, we are not going to list every team for the moneyline category. It is also important to note that we are looking to list the bets that hold the most potential value out of our given options. With that in mind, here are three teams that I like to win straight up in Week 3, who also hold a fair amount of betting value.

Los Angeles Chargers: -108 Odds

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To say that the Los Angeles Chargers have started out below expectations, it would be an understatement. Los Angeles may not have been seen as a clear top three or even top five team in the AFC. However, the Chargers were still hoping to be viewed as dangerous playoff threats. In the battle of 0-2 teams against the Minnesota Vikings, I am willing to place some faith in LA. Their ability to win in the trenches could be the difference against Minnesota. And even with defensive questions, the Vikings still pose less experience on defense. I believe the Chargers could get in the win column in a high-scoring game.

New England Patriots: -142 Odds

The Patriots are 0-2 and are facing questions on offense, even still. New England has dominated the division-rival New York Jets in recent history, though. Entering Sunday, the Patriots have won 14 consecutive games over the Jets. Zach Wilson is also a combined 0-4 against this opponent. And now, he is thrust into action when he was not supposed to be the starter. Combined with all of those stats, it is just hard to envision the Patriots starting the season 0-3.

Pittsburgh Steelers: +120 Odds

I was shocked to see the Pittsburgh Steelers were underdogs last week. Granted, it was a division matchup last week against a Cleveland Browns team that is getting some hype. Quite frankly, I do not understand how Pittsburgh is an underdog this week, whatsoever. The Raiders are at home, and it is a Sunday night game in primetime. But even with some offensive questions for the Steelers, the Raiders have not looked very competent through two games, unless they are targeting the otherworldly Davante Adams.

Best Bets: Spread

Betting on teams to cover the spread is not always about taking someone who you feel should easily cover, whether that is the favorite or the underdog. However, finding teams that play hard or matchups that have historically been close are key. Finding the number that you believe is possibly too low or too high is also key. You can then thread the needle on either side of the betting odds with whoever you believe holds the better betting value. Here are three teams that offer fair betting value in Week 3 when looking at the spread.

Washington Commanders: +6.5 vs Buffalo Bills

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I am not willing to guarantee that the Washington Commanders will win outright on Sunday. Yet, this is a game that they are capable of keeping close. Entering the season, this appeared to be one of the easier matchups on the Buffalo Bills’ schedule. Buffalo does have more holes on the roster than previous years, however. Washington has also had a strong start as a pass rush, which could pressure the turnover-friendly Josh Allen into precarious positions. Finally, Sam Howell and this Eric Bieniemy-led offense have already gained some early momentum. This could be a closer game than most think.

New England Patriots: -2.5 at New York Jets

Besides the items listed above for my belief in New England this weekend, the Patriots are due to have a dominant defensive showing. The Jets without Aaron Rodgers are just such a non-threatening unit. Simply put, New York only averaged 17.4 points per game last year, where Wilson was largely the starter. It could just be too challenging to believe that the Jets will make much of a dent on the scoreboard. A Patriots cover seems like a strong bet this week.

Tennessee Titans: +3.5 at Cleveland Browns

This matchup is a true toss-up for me this week. Both defenses have a tenacious style that can quickly apply pressure. Neither offense presents tremendous consistency with their skill players. And without Nick Chubb, Cleveland is an extremely handcuffed group. Even if they do not win, I could see the Titans keeping this close enough. They play so many close games, look no further than their first two games so far. Tennessee just presents enough value when betting the spread, given their play style.

Favorite Player Props

Player prop bets can sometimes be tricky to find the perfect betting value. Some star players do not consistently produce at a high clip, especially when factoring in the early portion of the season. Nevertheless, here are four player prop bets that I enjoy for the third weekend of NFL action.

Zay Flowers: Over 52.5 Receiving Yards

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Zay Flowers has already built solid chemistry with Lamar Jackson. He has easily topped this figure in each of the first two games (78 receiving yards in Week 1, 62 receiving yards in Week 2). More importantly, Flowers has received a healthy dose of targets through two games, with 15 targets total. His mix of yards after catch ability and being able to win vertically also create opportunities for explosive plays at any moment. In turn, Indianapolis is a young defense looking to get rolling.

KJ Osborn: Over 36.5 Receiving Yards

KJ Osborn has had a bit of an up-and-down start to 2023. But as we mentioned with the Chargers-Vikings matchup above, there is plenty of potential for this to be a high-scoring game. Minnesota has also had little success as a rushing offense. With how often they air it out, and Osborn’s rapport with Kirk Cousins, he could further find his footing this week after some slow starts.

Tyler Allgeier: Over 41.5 Rushing Yards

I consider myself Bijan Robinson‘s biggest fan. Despite that, I am eyeing Tyler Allgeier in this week’s matchup against the Detroit Lions. Atlanta has remained constant in believing in and relying on the ground game. They continued that last week, even with trailing in the fourth quarter. Allgeier has still registered 15 and 16 carries, respectively, throughout two games this season. With that steady amount of touches, this number feels too low for someone with the short area quickness and power of Allgeier.

Jerome Ford: Over 45.5 Rushing Yards

The devastating Chubb injury will open the door for the younger Jerome Ford in Cleveland. All told, the Browns appear to be very high on the Cincinnati product. He appears to have a tough, hard-nosed running style. Tennessee’s defense is no slouch. But given the background of Kevin Stefanski, along with the Cleveland offensive line, Ford could be counted on heavily in what could be a tight game.

Be on the lookout for more FPC NFL betting articles throughout this 2023 NFL season. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.

– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.