Handicapping Hal’s Week Three NFL Picks

With more than half of the US states allowing legalized sports betting this NFL season, it’s time for another week of NFL picks here at FullPressCoverage.com. I’ll be making the picks each week, picking the MoneyLine as well against the spread (using the Draftkings SportsBook Point Spreads).

Last week saw exciting NFL action, a little less craziness than week one and a return to what passes for NFL normal. Too many injuries to key players, but scoring was up (except for in Jacksonville where high scoring was expected.

This week’s slate of games sees some larger point spreads as after two games, the haves and have-nots are getting clear.

Thursday, Sept. 21

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5), 

8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)

The NFL shows how much money means more to the league than the players’ health each week when two teams are forced to play on Thursday night after playing on Sunday. I have no reason for picking New York other than weird things happen on Thursday night, especially earlier in the season.

Exact Score: NYG 28 – SF 25 (Upset Special)

Versus the Spread: New York

Sunday, Sept. 24

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5), 

1 p.m. (CBS)

Without Anthony Richardson, the Colts go from low-powered offense to no-power offense. Zay Flowers, not Odell Beckett Jr., has been the catalyst for the revived offense in Baltimore. I’m expecting this could get ugly early.

Exact Score: IND 13 – BAL 34

Versus the Spread: Baltimore 

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5), 

1 p.m. (CBS)

Two teams still struggling on offense are the Browns and Titans. Both have excellent defenses and quarterbacks who peaked in 2019. Low scoring for sure, but that spread seems too high for Cleveland, even at home. 

Exact Score: TEN 19 – CLE 16

Versus the Spread: Tennessee

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-3), 

1 p.m. (FOX)

Last year the Lions were the new kids on the block with exciting skill position players and an uncertain quarterback. Jared Goff knows his role and is comfortable now, but I’m not ready to anoint Desmond Ridder in the same category, even though he impressed in the fourth quarter last week. Both defenses had a rough week two as well. Lions at home and I expect close, but with the point spread at three, I must pick Detroit to cover.

Exact Score: ATL 24 – DET 28

Versus the Spread: Detroit

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-2), 

1 p.m. (FOX)

The Saints are 2-0, but they’re 25th in scoring offense and the Tennessee and Carolina offenses are not exactly the Cowboys and Eagles. Green Bay was up 12 points last week after three quarters and took the ball out of Jordan Love’s hands and lost. The defense in Green Bay has to prove itself still, but I see an easy cover at Lambeau Field.

Exact Score: NO 17 – GB 24

Versus the Spread: Green Bay

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5), 

1 p.m. (FOX)

Houston has an odd mix of veterans and younger players on both sides of the ball, but C.J. Stroud is in a tough position without playmakers. Jacksonville was the biggest disappointment of the week, getting manhandled by the Chiefs. I like how DeMeco Ryans has the Texans playing hard and expect them to somehow pull off a cover.

Exact Score: HOU 21 – JAX 24

Versus the Spread: Houston

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-6.5), 

1 p.m. (CBS)

The spread is ridiculously low for the Dolphins here as that offense isn’t even in high gear yet. There’s no Bill Belichick on the Denver sideline to keep this game close, and Russell Wilson in a shootout with Tua Tagovailoa is a colossal mismatch. Miami with an easy win and cover.

Exact Score: DEN 13 – MIA 34

Versus the Spread: Miami

Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Minnesota Vikings, 

1 p.m. (FOX)

This is the best game of the week–two teams with huge expectations and explosive offenses in a must-win game. Both are huge disappointments, particularly on defense so far in 2023. I expect high-scoring, but also expect the Chargers to screw it up as usual. 

Exact Score: LAC 30 – MIN 34

Versus the Spread: Minnesota

New England Patriots (-3) at New York Jets, 

1 p.m. (CBS)

This is the game I feel cheated. Aaron Rodgers vs Bill Belichick’s defense would have been a must-watch match-up. Does anyone have any faith in Zach Wilson getting right in 2023? The Jets’ defense will keep them in every game, but Mac Jones looks like the better quarterback even though Wilson has better toys.

Exact Score: NE 20 – NYJ 16

Versus the Spread: New England

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Washington Commanders, 

1 p.m. (CBS)

The Eric Bieniemy hype is real–the Chiefs offense is stuck in neutral without him and the Sam Howell-led Commanders are seventh in points scored through two weeks. The Bills got Josh Allen back on track last week, but 6.5 points seem really high for the Bills on the road. Washington should cover, but Buffalo pulls out the win.

Exact Score: BUF 24 – WAS 20

Versus the Spread: Washington

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6), 

4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Another big spread, but the Carolina defense is legitimate and should keep them close each week. The Carolina offense is lacking in weapons for Bryce Young but should improve in time. Seattle had a heck of a win against the Lions last week, but Detroit’s defense was atrocious. I expect the Seahawks to win but Carolina keep it close.

Exact Score: CAR 13 – SEA 18

Versus the Spread: Carolina

Dallas Cowboys (-12) at Arizona Cardinals, 

4:25 p.m. (FOX)

They have to bump that point spread up to a college football spread to try and get me to fall for picking the underdog in this game. The Cowboys have some injuries but are still dominant on both sides of the ball. Arizona may be lucky to win two games this season. Double that spread, and I still pick Dallas. This is my lock of the week.

Exact Score: DAL 38 – AZ 10 (Lock of the Week)

Versus the Spread: Dallas

Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5), 

4:25 p.m. (FOX)

See above; this is a Super Bowl contender against a team that is a mess on offense after two weeks with Luke Getsy running the offense. Even worse, the offense was supposed to be the strength with the defense getting torched by Baker Mayfield last week. Now, Patrick Mahomes? No spread is big enough right now for me in this game.

Exact Score: CHI 13 – KC 34

Versus the Spread: Kansas City

Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5), 

8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Weren’t the Raiders supposed to be better in year two of the Josh McDaniels Experience? How did McDaniels utilize Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Jakobi Meyers in New England and now have no clue what to do with Hunter Renfrow? Pittsburgh ran into a buzzsaw in week one, but despite an impotent offense, that defense can get the job done and win and cover on the road in primetime.

Exact Score: PIT 23 – LV 18

Versus the Spread: Pittsburgh

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Monday, Sept. 25

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 

7:15 p.m. (ABC) 

Philadelphia is having that post-Super Bowl loss hangover but still finding a way to grit out tough wins over New England and Minnesota these past two weeks. The defensive line is doing it all for the Eagles and with Avonte Maddox hurt, that gives a huge boost to Chris Godwin attacking the soft middle of the defense. Expect another close game that the Eagles gut out a win but let Tampa steal a cover.

Exact Score: PHI 24 – TB 20

Versus the Spread: Tampa Bay

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5), 

8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

This game is tough as Joe Burrow is clearly less than 80%, let alone 100% with his calf injury. How confident is anyone in Jake Browning if he’s thrust in the game at quarterback? What a job with the rebuild in Los Angeles by Les Snead and Sean McVay! This isn’t a Super Bowl contender, but the Rams could sneak into the playoffs. I believe in Puka Nacua, just not enough in the defense beyond Aaron Donald.

Exact Score: LAR 21 – CIN 27

Versus the Spread: Cincinnati

Accountability:

Picking Winners for Last Week: 9-7

Picking Against the Spread for Last Week: 8-7-1

A winning week is a step in the right direction after a slow start in week one. This week has some strange spreads I couldn’t wait to jump at and others that were just too low. It should be a good week to get back on track and over .500 picking winners. 

Picking Winners This Season: 14-18

Picking Against the Spread This Season: 16-15-1

– Hal Bent aka “Handicapping Hal” has covered the New England Patriots for the past five years at FullPressCoverage.com and can be found at @Halbent01 on Twitter/@halbent3 on Threads and manning the @FPC_Patriots Twitter account each game day providing game updates, instant analysis, complaining about uncalled holding penalties and calling out Steve Belichick for playing too much zone coverage in crucial situations.