Handicapping Hal’s Week Four NFL Picks

With more than half of the US states allowing legalized sports betting this NFL season, it’s time for another week of NFL picks here at FullPressCoverage.com. I’ll be making the picks each week, picking the MoneyLine as well against the spread (using the Draftkings SportsBook Point Spreads).

Last week, the 49ers started things off by dominating again, then the Dolphins kicked up the level of domination, dropping 70 points on Denver. The Browns showed off their dominating defense against Tennessee.

The Pack came Back to erase a 17-point hole against the Saints. The Texans upset the Jaguars in impressive fashion as C.J. Stroud looked like the future. The Chargers and Vikings were both desperately trying to lose, but only the Vikings pulled it off.

The Jets were a mess again against New England, and the Bills commanded the Commanders. The Seahawks bounced back, but the upsets continued as the Colts beat the Ravens in OT, and the Cardinals put the smackdown on Dallas.

Some pop star stole the show as the Chiefs crushed the Bears. The Steelers hung on against Vegas and the Eagles had a tough match-up on Monday but held off the Buccaneers. The week closed with the Bengals getting a win, barely over the surprisingly tough Rams.

This week features a trip across the pond and early morning football on Sunday. A battle for supremacy in the AFC East highlights the 1:00pm ET games while all eyes are on the Cardinals to see if the upsets continue in San Francisco. Sunday night should have been a stud, but with no Aaron Rodgers could be a dud.

Thursday, September 28th, 2023

Detroit Lions (-1.5) at Green Bay Packers at 8:15pm ET

The NFC North’s two best teams meet on Thursday night, giving Amazon Prime a marquee match-up. This is important because next week is Chicago and Washington. Yikes.

Green Bay is banged up, especially on the offensive line, which could spell their doom. I expect that they’ll keep it close as their week three late-game heroics makes them dangerous and never out of the game. A nice low point spread means I can take Detroit to win and cover.

Exact Score: DET 30 – GB 27

Versus the Spread:  Detroit

Sunday, October 1st, 2023

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at 9:30am ET

The Jaguars kick off Sunday in the UK at their second home. Jacksonville is the typical young team managing expectations for the first time. Atlanta, also expected to be in the playoff mix, has struggled on offense.

I expect Jacksonville to get back on track this week in the comfort of their second home and UK fans. Desmond Ridder will display he can struggle no matter what continent he is on. Jacksonville should win and cover easily.

Exact Score: ATL 20 – JAX 31

Versus the Spread: Jacksonville

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3) at 1:00pm ET

Cleveland finally got a “that’s what we paid for” performance out of Deshaun Watson last week…and is questionable with a right shoulder injury this week. The story for Cleveland is the defense, in which coordinator Jim Schwartz has been swarming and overwhelming opponents. Baltimore wreaked with injuries as usual, should be 3-0 after a hiccup last week versus Indianapolis

I trust the Ravens to get back on track. I trust the defense in Cleveland to keep it close and cover the spread, just not the offense with or without Watson to score enough to win. 

Exact Score: BAL 19 – CLE 17

Versus the Spread: Cleveland

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Houston Texans at 1:00pm ET

The Texans finally took a step forward last week with young quarterback C.J. Stroud impressed as they crushed the Jags for their first win of 2023. Head coach DeMeco Ryans has had this team playing hard. However, the Steelers are riding a strong defense and an adequate offense. 

The Steelers defense should overwhelm Houston and make it easy on Kenny Pickett to just manage the game. Pittsburgh to cover and win on the road is a sure bet.

Exact Score: PIT 25 – HOU 9  

Versus the Spread: Pittsburgh

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers at 1:00pm ET

Minnesota, in a week three must-win game, watched as Los Angeles tried to give them the game again and again, but the Vikings wouldn’t take it. Now in a match-up of 0-3 teams, Minnesota must go through the tough Carolina defense to try and crawl out of the NFC North basement. 

This is the week, right Kirk Cousins? Minnesota to win outright but Carolina can keep it close and cover.

Exact Score: MIN 21 – CAR 18

Versus the Spread: Carolina

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans at 1:00pm ET

The Bengals pulled out a tough win on Monday night against the Rams but may have the perfect remedy for the stalled offense–the Tennessee Titans. Derrick Henry is averaging 3.2 yards per rush and Ryan Tannehill appears to have aged ten years in the offseason. 

Cincinnati has their “back on track” game and wins and covers easily.

Exact Score: CIN 27 – TEN 13

Versus the Spread: Cincinnati

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-8) at 1:00pm ET

The Commanders were the feel-good story of the first two weeks of the season as they pulled out wins against the Cardinals and Broncos. Last week, Buffalo exposed their offense and defense. The 3-0 Eagles should have easy pickings on both sides of the ball and an easy win and cover. Heck, make this game the Lock of the Week. 

Exact Score: WAS 10 – PHI 34 (Lock of the Week)

Versus the Spread: Philadelphia

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at 1:00pm ET

The death knell sounding for Tampa Bay after Tom Brady’s retirement may have been premature. The defense is still strong and there are playmakers on offense. The Saints may have Jameis Winston at quarterback. ‘Nuff said. Bucs to cover and win outright.

Exact Score: TB 20 – NO 17

Versus the Spread: Tampa Bay

Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts at 1:00pm ET

The Colts are 2-1. Even with Anthony Richardson injured, Minshew Mania reigns supreme again. This may be the best coaching of Sean McVay’s career. A win in Seattle and hanging with the 49ers and hanging in all night, and almost stealing a win against the Bengals. 

I’m going with my guy and saying the Rams, with Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua, find a way to pull out the close win and cover the spread on the road.

Exact Score: LAR 24 – IND 21

Versus the Spread: Los Angeles

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at 1:00pm ET

Not to take anything away from a team scoring ten touchdowns in a game, but the Broncos’ defense quit in the third quarter. That was an ugly game to watch. Buffalo rebounded after a lackluster week one by blowing out a pair of inferior opponents. This week, they get a real test.

This game is huge for Miami as they would build a two-game division lead and get another division win. The Buffalo defense is nothing to sneeze at, and middle linebacker Terrel Bernard may be the key to matching Miami’s speed on offense. Buffalo rules the AFC East still, with a win and cover at home.

Exact Score: MIA 34 – BUF 37

Versus the Spread: Buffalo

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Chicago Bears at 1:00pm ET

My Dad would have called this match-up “the Toilet Bowl” as two terrible teams fight it out for draft positioning (in week four of the season). Both offenses aren’t particularly good, but the Denver defense (70 points allowed to Miami last week) and the Bears have no pass rush and a suspect secondary.

I’ll hold my nose and pick the Bears to outlast Denver at home to win and cover. 

Exact Score: DEN 26 – CHI 30

Versus the Spread: Chicago

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) at 4:05pm ET

The AFC West is unpredictable, especially these two teams. Both have potentially explosive offenses and talented pieces on defense. Of course, both are lacking in the coaching department and both teams are fortunate to have one win apiece.

At this point, an injured Jimmy Garoppolo plays havoc on betting. Whether in or out, I expect the Chargers to win, but I’ll roll the dice that the Chargers do something to try to lose. Put it in overtime and allow the Raiders to cover the spread.

Exact Score: LV 24 – LAC 27 (OT)

Versus the Spread: Las Vegas

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14) at 4:25pm ET

Jonathan Gannon has the Cardinals playing hard and competing in all three games so far in 2023. While I don’t expect another upset win after last week against the Cowboys, the Cardinals and Wellesley High/Middlebury College alum offensive coordinator Drew Petzing should have his offense scoring enough to cover the spread.

Unfortunately, as long as they remain healthy, the 49ers are a machine on both sides of the ball and hard to pick against. I’ll compromise by having Arizona cover the two-touchdown point spread but still pick San Francisco to win. 

Exact Score: AZ 20 – SF 30

Versus the Spread: Arizona

New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) at 4:25pm ET

Dallas lost to Arizona last week, while New England beat the Jets. The Patriots are still in preseason mode (Bill Belichick ramps it up around week five usually) but Dallas is in the national game at home after a humiliating loss. The offensive line injuries really hurt the Cowboys.

I expect the Patriots to keep it close, but Dallas is just too talented on both sides of the ball. Patriots with a road cover but Dallas straight up.

Exact Score: NE 22 – DAL 25

Versus the Spread: New England

The Football Stack: Patriots at Cowboys, Cardinals at 49ers #NFL #NFLTwitter @FullPressBets @FullPressNFL @FP_Coverage https://t.co/LsZQFUEvob

— 🎙 Full Press Radio Network 🎙 (@FullPressRadio) September 29, 2023

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at New York Jets at 8:20pm ET

Well, this game looked a lot better back in August when it was Aaron Rodgers against Patrick Mahomes. NBC is wishing they could exercise a swap and grab Dolphins-Bills for this spot. There’s no real logic here picking this as the upset special for the week–but the Chiefs do seem to inexplicably lose one road game each year to a bad team (remember, they lost to the Colts in week three last year).

The Jets’ offense is a mess, but the defense is still better than they looked the last two weeks against Dallas and New England. I’m betting that Zach Wilson doesn’t even throw for 100 yards and the Jets defense and special teams do enough to win the game.

Exact Score: KC 20 – NYJ 21 (upset special)

Versus the Spread: New York

Monday, October 2nd, 2023

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-1) at 8:15pm ET

I’ve been too high on the Giants. Even their win over Arizona wasn’t impressive. The Giants have Saquon Barkley potentially returning on Monday night, but even so they are up against it with games in Miami and Buffalo the next two weeks after facing the Seahawks. 

Geno Smith just keeps making plays, and Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are a great 1-2 punch at running back. If the secondary gets healthy, this team can make some noise in the NFC and keep nipping at the 49ers’ heels.

Seahawks to cover and win on the road in prime time. 

Exact Score: SEA 25 – NYG 17

Versus the Spread: Seattle

Accountability:

Picking Winners for Last Week: 10-6

Picking Against the Spread for Last Week: 7-8-1

A winning week picking winners, but the spread turned on me and I couldn’t break even for the week. Remarkably, I’m about as “Even Steven” as can be this season. 

Picking Winners This Season: 24-24

Picking Against the Spread This Season: 23-23-2

– Hal Bent , aka “Handicapping Hal”, has covered the New England Patriots for the past five years at FullPressCoverage.com and can be found at @Halbent01 on Twitter/@halbent3 on Threads and manning the @FPC_Patriots Twitter account each game day providing game updates, instant analysis, complaining about uncalled holding penalties and calling out Steve Belichick for playing too much zone coverage in crucial situations.