It’s a fine time to look at the Goal-Line Guide Week 9 in order to help predict touchdown production for fantasy football.
The Goal-Line Guide series takes a look at touchdown production from inside the 5-yard line. With an equal emphasis placed on both offensive and defensive efficiency, the goal of the guide is meant to determine which teams are most likely to score touchdowns on a weekly basis, and also how they will score. As you will notice in the table below, I divide my Goal-Line Grades into separate Rushing and Passing scores.
The method for which I use to create these Goal-line Grades is as follows. First, I look at each offenses’ touchdown production inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. An important facet is the fact that I split these numbers into rushing and passing touchdowns.
Next, I look at each team’s defenses. Specifically, how often those units allow touchdowns inside their own 5-yard line. Again, this is divided into rushing and passing plays. Then I pair the matchups, with each team’s offense alongside their opponent’s defense for that week.
After that, I add in each offense’s implied total set by the oddsmakers. The logic there is the teams with the highest projected point totals are most likely to be in the red zone more often, and naturally more likely to score more touchdowns.
New this year, I have also added the offensive and defense total touchdowns in each situation. Now instead of it just being percentage based, there is a component of overall production in the guide.
Finally, next to each team’s grades, I created a column indicating the disparity between each offense’s running and passing scores. I also showcase which phase has the better chance of producing touchdowns. All of those steps combined create the Goal-Line Grades that you are about see.
Goal-Line Guide Week 9
|Team||Rushing GLG||Passing GLG||Difference|
|Arizona Cardinals||92.75||56.25||Run + 36.5|
|Atlanta Falcons||68||72||Pass + 4|
|Baltimore Ravens||107||59||Run + 48|
|Buffalo Bills||63.75||89.75||Pass + 26|
|Carolina Panthers||63||54||Run + 9|
|Cincinnati Bengals||63.25||91.75||Pass + 28.5|
|Chicago Bears||77.25||58.75||Run + 18.5|
|Cleveland Browns||93.25||65.75||Run + 27.5|
|Dallas Cowboys||61.75||65.75||Pass + 4|
|Green Bay Packers||68||72.5||Pass + 4.5|
|Houston Texans||56.25||63.25||Pass + 7|
|Indianapolis Colts||84.5||81.5||Run + 3|
|Kansas City Chiefs||90.5||84||Run + 6.5|
|Las Vegas Raiders||79||53.5||Run + 25.5|
|Los Angeles Chargers||45||85||Pass + 40|
|Los Angeles Rams||96.5||57.5||Run + 39|
|Miami Dolphins||60.5||80||Pass + 19.5|
|Minnesota Vikings||32||97.5||Pass + 65.5|
|New England Patriots||78||64||Run + 14|
|New Orleans Saints||76.25||71.25||Run + 5|
|New York Giants||64||40.5||Run + 23.5|
|New York Jets||45||80||Pass + 35|
|Philadelphia Eagles||88.25||79.25||Run + 9|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||71.75||30.75||Run + 41|
|Seattle Seahawks||55.5||67.5||Pass + 12|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||57.75||82.75||Pass + 25|
|Tennessee Titans||52.75||74.25||Pass + 21.5|
|Washington Commanders||68.5||66.5||Run + 2|
Here are some observations from the Goal-Line Guide Week 9 edition.
Ep 161: Lions Dissapoint; NFL MVP; Week 12 Discussion
by Full Press Coverage on November 27, 2023 at 12:12 am
Arguably the biggest talking point in the NFL this week is the Minnesota Vikings quarterback. From a injury, to a trade, the football news has been dominated by Minnesota and their offensive signal-caller. That being said, it appears as though a late-round rookie will make his first career start under center for the Vikings. Not to fret for the Minnesota skill position players, as the team has the highest Passing Goal-Line Grade of the week with a score of 97.5. This also the second best grade overall in Week 9. This coincides with a Vikings Rushing Goal-Line of 32, the lowest for a ground game this week, and second lowest overall.
As a result, Minnesota possesses the largest Goal-Line differential of the week at +65.5 favoring the arial attack. The Vikings offense and the Falcons defense are basically on opposite ends of the spectrum. Minnesota has not producing a rushing TD inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Meanwhile, Atlanta has yet to stop an opponent from scoring on a passing attempt inside their own 5-yard line.
All to say, I have confidence in both of the main receiving weapons for the Vikings. T.J. Hockenson has been one of the best fantasy football assets at tight end this season. At the same time, Jordan Addison has been incredibly productive in the touchdown department. I expect both of those trends to continue. Yes, I understand the risk with a brand new quarterback taking snaps, but I have a hard time ignoring such a large Goal-Line Guide differential. Just look at the Titans offense last week, and how they were projected in the Fantasy Football: 2023 Goal-Line Guide Week 8 edition.
AFC North Highs and Lows
I mentioned that the Vikings had the second highest Goal-Line Grade overall, for their passing attack, but also the second worst overall score representing their rushing game. From one North to another, both of the best and the lowest Goal-Line Grades are found in the same division. Beginning with the Baltimore Ravens, their 107 Rushing Goal-Line Grade is the highest overall in Week 9. Perhaps pairing perfectly with the Pittsburgh Steelers, another AFC North team, having a 30.75 Passing Goal-Line Grade, the lowest overall score on the week.
The Ravens and the Steelers end up with the two largest Goal-Line Differentials favoring the ground game. Baltimore because of their opponent, as much as their own merit, and one could say the same about Pittsburgh. First, the Ravens have scored four times as many rushing touchdowns as they do passing scores, inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Their Week 9 foe, the Seahawks, have more than twice as many goal-line rushing scores as passing touchdowns allowed. Meanwhile, the Steelers have only produced 1 passing touchdown inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. Teams facing the Titans have been even worse, as Tennessee has not surrendered a single score through the air inside their own 5-yard line.
In both instances, the Ravens and the Steelers should find more goal-line success running the football, as opposed to throwing it through the air. This should give an advantage to each team’s starting running back. That would be Baltimore’s Gus Edwards, and Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris. But less obvious candidates for ceiling performances includes their respective backfield mates, Justice Hill and Jaylen Warren. Of course, Lamar Jackson deserves credit as well. He could easily find the end zone with either his arms or his legs on any given week.
LAnd of the Touchdowns?
Both of the Los Angeles teams have top 5 Goal-Line Guide differentials in Week 5. However, they are opposites with the Chargers having the better passing score, while the Rams Rushing Goal-Line Grade is the 3rd best overall score on the week. Let us start with the Los Angeles Chargers, who face a Jets team allowing only an 8% TD rate on rushing plays inside their own 5-yard line. The only team with a lower surrender rate are the Chiefs who have not allowed any such scores. This suits the Chargers fine as their passing goal-line TD rate is better than their rushing efficiency.
Looking at the Los Angeles Rams now, they have the best ground game near the goal-line. The Rams have converted touchdowns on 73% of their rushing plays inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Also, their 8 goal-line rushing touchdowns is only one of the current league lead for total rushing scores inside the opponent’s 5-yard line.
Now to focus on specific players. The Chargers top wide receiver, Keenan Allen, is also among the leagues best. This Passing Goal-Line Grade of 85 could elevate him to the upper echelon of the position this week. Now to mention the quarterback Justin Herbert, who is elite is his own right. Not to mention running back Austin Ekeler who often scores more fantasy points from his receiving work, than from actually carrying the football. Meanwhile, the Rams current running back duo appears to be Royce Freeman and Darrell Henderson. Neither were on the team a month ago, but here we are. Halfway through the NFL season, attrition has taken over, especially for the Rams running back rooms.
Thank you for reading Fantasy Football: 2023 Goal-Line Guide Week 8. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.