Braden’s Best Bets: NFL Week 11

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As we look ahead to Week 11 of the 2023 NFL schedule, we have plenty of matchups that are intriguing. Some teams are heavily favored to dominate their opponent this week. Meanwhile, there are still a few potential upsets that cannot be ruled out.

In terms of betting, there are a plethora of exciting options. This is true of both moneyline and spread picks. Plus, we are going to have some advantageous options to choose from for individual players. Which teams hold some betting value as either the favorite or as an underdog?

It is time to list my favorite plays of the week, with my favorite bets for teams with either the moneyline or the spread. To boot, I will also list a few player props that stand out for Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season. Let’s kick it off.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

Best Bets: Moneyline

Of course, we are not going to list every team for the moneyline category. It is also important to note that we are looking to list the bets that hold the most potential value out of our given options. With that in mind, here are three teams that I like to win straight up in Week 11, who also hold a fair amount of betting value.

Pittsburgh Steelers: +100 Odds

AFC North division games are generally tight. But between Pittsburgh and Cleveland, Sunday is a true toss-up game. The Steelers have been outgained by opponents in all nine of their games. Yet, they are still 6-3. The Browns will have had three quarterbacks make multiple starts after Sunday. Nonetheless, their defense is among the best in the league and can keep them in any game. Cleveland is slightly favored at home. But with the offensive momentum that Pittsburgh has begun to find, I have to take the Steelers with plus odds.

Los Angeles Rams: -102 Odds

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Sean McVay is 9-5 against Pete Carroll as Rams head coach, including playoffs. Even when Seattle has bested McVay during his Los Angeles tenure, it has been close. Matthew Stafford is expected to return from his thumb injury. As for the Seahawks, they have been a bit shaky lately, even when they ended up emerging victorious. This feels like a bounce back spot for the Rams, while Seattle finally crumbles in a close affair.

Minnesota Vikings: +110 Odds

It may be hard to bet against the Denver Broncos after their last couple of games. There is still a lot of bounces that Denver received last week that most teams do not get. While the Broncos are being praised for their defensive improvement, Minnesota has been impressing as a defense for a while. Like last week, I trust them to create enough pressure and end drives. In a game that could come down to the wire, give me Joshua Dobbs and Minnesota to find a way, once again.

Best Bets: Spread

Betting on teams to cover the spread is not always about taking someone who you feel should easily cover, whether that is the favorite or the underdog. However, finding teams that play hard or matchups that have historically been close are key. Finding the number that you believe is possibly too low or too high is also key. You can then thread the needle on either side of the betting odds with whoever you believe holds the better betting value. Here are three teams that offer fair betting value in Week 11, when looking at the spread.

Dallas Cowboys: -10.5 at Carolina Panthers

I know this is a double-digit spread already. Even still, this may be possibly too low. I understand Dallas dropped one on the road to a bad team once this year already, in Arizona. The problem is, Carolina is not as competitive as the Cardinals have been throughout most of the year. Beyond that, the Cowboys are averaging 33.7 points per game this year against teams with a losing record. Dallas is also fourth in points allowed (18.3 points allowed per game). The Panthers? They rank 29th in points scored, averaging just 17 points per game and have only scored more than 21 points in two of nine games this year. Ride with Dallas in a heartbeat.

Las Vegas Raiders: +13.5 at Miami Dolphins

I do not necessarily think the Raiders will win on Sunday. But, they may be able to keep it closer than most people expect. Miami is tremendous at home offensively. There are questions about their ability to handle more physical and tougher opponents, however. Under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, those elements have been restored in the Raiders. Even if they lose, I think Vegas can hang around within 13 points.

Tennessee Titans: +7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

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Similar to the Raiders, I do not necessarily think the Titans will win on Sunday. Though, it is difficult to think Tennessee loses by more than a touchdown to Jacksonville. The Jaguars have been less impressive at home this year, compared to what they have done on the road. In fact, they are just 1-3 in Jacksonville this year. That is less victories than what they had in London. Meanwhile, the Titans are 0-5 on the road. Three of those five games have been within seven points, in the end. It is also hard not to buy into Mike Vrabel keeping it tight after the Jags failed miserably last week.

Favorite Player Props

Player prop bets can sometimes be tricky to find the perfect betting value. Some star players do not consistently produce at a high clip. Nevertheless, here are four player prop bets that I enjoy for the eleventh weekend of NFL action.

Jahmyr Gibbs: Over 40.5 Rushing Yards

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Jahmyr Gibbs is beginning to look like the player that Detroit envisioned when making him a first-round pick this past spring. It is one thing to have the great speed and broken tackle ability that Gibbs possesses. Add in the commanding Lions offensive line, and Gibbs can go for miles without having anyone lay a hand on him, so to speak. Even though he is just now beginning to receive a healthy amount of touches, Gibbs has only failed to top 40 rushing yards in one of his games this season. All told, Gibbs could continue to get plenty of opportunities, so long as the Lions continue to lead late and need to chew clock.

AJ Dillon: Over 29.5 Rushing Yards

The Los Angeles Chargers may not rank as bad as they did in prior years as a run defense. Though, there have been a handful of running backs that have had tremendous days against them this season. Both of the aforementioned Gibbs and David Montgomery ran wild on them last week. Meanwhile in Green Bay, AJ Dillon has been consistently producing for this Packers offense. The Boston College product has registered at least 40 rushing yards or more in four of the last five games. More importantly, he is coming through while not always getting a major amount of rushing attempts.

Logan Thomas: Over 36.5 Receiving Yards

Logan Thomas is not going to be recognized as one of the league’s best tight ends, of course. However, he is a reliable security blanket for someone like Sam Howell in Washington. Thomas can make tight catches in traffic. He can also be difficult to bring down after the catch, on top of that. This pass catcher has topped this number in three of the last four games. Furthermore, Thomas has topped this figure in six of his nine games this season, overall.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 42.5 Receiving Yards

Over the last handful of weeks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has received more opportunities with the Seattle passing attack. In the last five games, the rookie has topped this figure four times. He has also received at least five targets in four of the last five games, to boot. Add in his yards after catch ability, as well as ability to attack vertically, and it could only take a few chances for Smith-Njigba to top this number. I like JSN this week, based on what he has done lately.

Be on the lookout for more FPC NFL betting articles throughout this 2023 NFL season. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.

– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.