NFL Free Agency Fallout: Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers -

The new NFL league year is in full swing as we take look at the players whose stock rose and fell from a fantasy football perspective.

Every March, the NFL league year turns over. One of the events celebrating this change of seasons is the free agency period. However, for the 2022 edition, we were treated with many massive trades, to go along with free-agent acquisitions. Here are the players whose fantasy football value is most effected by this turn of events.

Fantasy Football Risers

Marcus Mariota / Mitch Trubisky – QB

We start off with two of the most evident risers in the fantasy football landscape. Both Marcus Mariota and Mitch Trubisky went from being backup quarterbacks to starters, at least for the time being. In reality, both the Falcons and the Steelers could still select rookie signal-callers early in the NFL Draft. But for now, Mariota replaces a long-time Atlanta leader but gets the chance to throw to an apparent future legend at tight end. It would not the first offense that Mariota ran that relied primarily on a tight end.

As for Trubisky, Pittsburgh tabbed him to be their next starter, although the contract indicates it may be a QB competition in camp. Still, based on Trubisky’s NFL production, as well as a lack of success from other Steelers quarterbacks on the roster, I imagine he claims that job fairly quickly in the offseason.

Both Mariota and Trubisky signed short-term deals, but both also have a rushing skill set that will specifically allow them to score more consistent fantasy points. This could make them both high-risk high-reward options for fantasy teams, especially true in dynasty formats where they could lose their starting jobs at any point over the next couple of seasons.

Cordarrelle Patterson – RB/WR

During the 2021 season, Cordarrelle Patterson became the Falcons’ de facto lead back. Not only could that feat repeat in 2022, but he may also become the de facto alpha wide receiver. After signing a 2-year contract to remain in Atlanta, Patterson gets to maintain the momentum from a career year. In 2021, not only did Patterson produce a single-season best 52 receptions, 584 receiving yards, and 11 scrimmage touchdowns, but he also essentially doubled his career carry count.

Even if the Falcons bring in some competition, Patterson appears poised to be a regular contributor in some form or another. He can play either running back or wide receiver positions and can win in a variety of ways. So Atlanta would have to add a lot of players in order to fill up the depth chart to the point where Patterson would be relegated to special teams duties. Fortunately for fantasy managers, Patterson still has dual position eligibility on certain platforms. Frankly, it is the lack of pass-catching weapons on the Falcons roster that provides upside. Perhaps Patterson could even eclipse those career-high receiving numbers from last season.

Allen Robinson – WR

Allen Robinson has the best QB of his career! I know a lot of fantasy football analysts have said this often (especially myself last year), but it has never been more apparent. Coming off of a poor 2021, Robinson joins the defending super bowl championships and one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Best of all, he walks into a situation where he could immediately become the #2 WR on the Rams.

While Robinson might get knocked for his injury history, he has played a full season half of the time in the NFL. Four full seasons out of eight may not seem over impressive, but Robinson has only failed to hit double-digit games played once, and that was a week 1 ACL tear in 2017. So perhaps more durable than he is given credit for. But looking at these four fully healthy seasons, Robinson eclipsed 150 targets every time. Even as the second option on the Rams, Robinson should comfortably see over 100 targets.

Zach Ertz / David Njoku – TE

Now we get to a pair of tight ends, both of which remained with their 2021 teams. The Browns placed the franchise tag on David Njoku, while Zach Ertz reached a 3-year agreement with the Cardinals. For both of these players, having a coaching staff consistency will be huge for production. But arguably the biggest reason why these tight ends have risen in value is because of who else has left these teams.

Starting with Arizona, they lost a couple of key contributors to free agency. Half of their top six pass-catchers from 2021 have departed. Ertz was actually second on the team in receptions last year, despite the fact that he only played 11 games after arriving via mid-season trade. Assuming DeAndre Hopkins returns to the field healthily, Ertz could be the perfect compliment for this offense as a number two option.

Meanwhile, Cleveland released both Austin Hooper and Jarvis Landry. Specifically, at the tight end position, Hooper’s absence should help Njoku see the field more often after he only played in 61% of the offensive snaps in 2021. Even if he could get over 2/3 of the snaps, like the 68% that Hooper averaged last year, then Njoku could become a more consistent producer for the Browns.

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Fallers

Baker Mayfield – QB

Sticking with the Browns, basically the opposite effect of the quarterbacks in the Risers section. With the QB carousel in full force, Baker Mayfield lost his starting job. Cleveland sent shockwaves around the league with a recent trade acquisition. Now, this leaves Mayfield with an uncertain future. Heck, even for 2022, his destination is unknown. One would expect some type of trade involving Mayfield to be in the works. After all, he did lead a Browns team to their first playoff win in decades. Surely another team must value his services.

Well, so far, Mayfield remains in Cleveland. Could he be relegated to a backup on Browns? If so, that would completely destroy his fantasy football value in redraft leagues. Dynasty managers would likely have to hold throughout the season and hope he lands a starting job next year, or drop him outright. Now, there could still be a trade to come. The NFL Draft for instance is a weekend full of roster activity. But as of right now, Mayfield’s value has completely fallen.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – RB

One of the most recent pieces of news, Ronald Jones has signed with the Chiefs. It appears that Clyde Edwards-Helaire will no longer be considered the lead or primary back. At the very best, this could turn out to be a 50/50 split. But even so, the way the roles will be split, it may be difficult to envision tremendous upside for Edwards-Helaire. Since it was his pass-catching upside that originally got him drafted by Kansas City, I’d imagine Edwards-Helaire plays the receiving back role. That would leave Jones as the main goal-line guy, giving him much more TD upside than Edwards-Helaire.

Now, considering a massive trade that the Chiefs recently completed, they will be looking for more pass-catching options on the team. Perhaps Edwards-Helaire could see a significant uptick in targets, but it may also be difficult to know when his spike weeks may come. Part of the advantage of the early-round running backs in fantasy football is the predictable usage on a weekly basis. The Chiefs bringing in Jones takes away a certain level of that predictability for Edwards-Helaire managers.

Josh Palmer – WR

This is probably strickly a dynasty Faller. With some uncertainty regarding the Chargers wide receiver room, some tabbed Josh Palmer as a potential Riser for 2022. After all, the team did spend a 3rd round draft pick on him just last season. Perhaps Palmer would get an opportunity for additional playing time. However, those thoughts disappeared after Mike Williams resigned with the Chargers. Short of an injury, it seems unlikely that Palmer will eclipse 40% of the offensive snaps, just like his rookie season.

All to say, this isn’t the end of Palmer’s dynasty relevance. He still has three years left on his rookie contract. And after catching 33 receptions as a rookie, he showed he at least belongs in the NFL. The opportunities will likely come for Palmer. Just not in 2022.

Noah Fant / CJ Uzomah – TE

Just like there were a couple of tight ends Risers, we also have a couple of Fallers at the position. A big part of the tight ends in fantasy football is trying to predict touchdowns. So it is perhaps no surprise that both of these tight ends are getting a downgrade at QB, and as a result, in offensive efficiency as well. While the Broncos got that QB upgrade, it came at a price for Noah Fant as he was part of the trade package. Now he goes to a Seahawks team with a lot of uncertainty. Perhaps a less crowded receiver spot, but will the scoring upside be there? I have my doubts about Fant.

As for C.J. Uzomah, he departs the Bengals and their young franchise QB, to the Jets with theirs. The one advantage is that Uzomah can grow alongside his quarterback entering his second season in the NFL. But all of the momentum that Uzomah gained coming off of a career year may be lost. During the 2021 season, Uzomah produced single-season highs in receptions (49), receiving yards (493), and touchdowns (5). He may not be able to replicate that production in 2022.

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– Kyle Senra is the managing editor for the Full Press Fantasy Sports. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @SenraSays Follow @FPC_FantasyPod and Facebook.