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The NFL is in tremendous shape, when it comes to the quarterback position. Almost all of the top signal callers are young or in the midst of their prime. That makes the race for the NFL MVP award a tight battle to watch each and every season. And largely, it is extremely difficult for a non-quarterback to win this particular award.
As a result, it is no surprise that quarterbacks reign supreme when looking at the current betting odds for the winner of the 2023 NFL MVP award. Who are the top names listed at the beginning of the betting board for this award? Today, we will go through the top eight players who hold the best odds for NFL MVP.
What value may each player possibly hold from a betting perspective? Or, why should you ultimately stay away from a specific player and their betting value? Let’s kick it off.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes +700 Odds
It is probably no surprise that Patrick Mahomes is the current betting favorite for 2023 NFL MVP. He is coming off of an MVP win and a Super Bowl victory from last year. In fact, Mahomes became the first player to win NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP in the same season since Kurt Warner did so in 1999. Overall, Mahomes is coming off a career-high 5,250 passing yards from last year. He accumulated 41 passing touchdowns in 2022, the second time in which he has surpassed 40 passing touchdowns in a single season.
Even as the betting favorite, Mahomes could still offer superb value for bettors. The Chiefs are not currently stacked with the perceived top weapons that other teams have, at least at the wide receiver position. That narrative did not slow him down last year. That could push his case to win NFL MVP once again, especially if he passes for over 5,000 yards and at least 40 passing touchdowns as easily as he did last year.
Joe Burrow +750 Odds
The odds reflect what the overall quarterback rankings arguably are at this point in time. Joe Burrow would be the top name that I want leading my team, if Mahomes did not exist. Burrow’s mix of poise, leadership and accuracy to all areas of the field have transformed the Bengals into one of the most prolific offenses in the entire league. On top of that, Burrow and Cincinnati have reached the AFC Championship Game in each of the two seasons that he has finished.
The value of Burrow may not be as opportunistic as some of the names down the list. Yet, from a player perspective and overall team standpoint, this quarterback and his team are likely best positioned to win the deep AFC if the Chiefs do not once again. The hype and recognition of Burrow has certainly grown quickly, as it should. But in the end, the national media may be ready to further crown him, if the Bengals reach the AFC title game or the Super Bowl another time.
Josh Allen +800 Odds
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills fell short of expectations, as they were Super Bowl favorites going into last year. They still won plenty of games, despite dealing with a lot of unforeseen challenges throughout different points of 2022. There were definitely some down weeks for the Bills and their quarterback. Elsewhere, Allen was able to bounce back in crucial games against some of the league’s best teams. Compared to Mahomes and Burrow, Allen has still not fully developed from a decision-making standpoint.
Buffalo is a clear candidate to take a slight step back, record-wise, in the crowded AFC East. Allen could honestly be seen as a bit of a double-edged sword, in terms of betting value. If he is able to have a career-type of campaign with arguably a weaker Bills roster, Allen may have a solid case for NFL MVP. But if the Bills truly struggle more than we have seen in recent years, Buffalo’s signal caller may not offer a high floor in betting value. This could be a name worth staying away from altogether.
Jalen Hurts +1100 Odds
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The Philadelphia Eagles had all of the makings of being a breakout team in 2022. The major question was, can Jalen Hurts make significant strides as an all-around passer? Even as much as Philadelphia used his legs, it is safe to say that his throwing improved greatly. He may have even won NFL MVP last year, if not for an injury suffered late in the regular season. The Eagles did not win Super Bowl LVII against the Kansas City Chiefs. But, Hurts firmly placed his name on the map for the foreseeable future.
This is a betting value that stands out a lot more than someone like Allen, personally. It is no secret that the NFC is a much less competitive conference than the AFC. The Eagles could truly be just as close to perfect as they were last season, if all things go well. Say Philadelphia and Hurts just dominate with their production from wire to wire, and the NFL MVP could be going to the Eagles quarterback. +1100 odds are worth taking a risk on, in my book.
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Justin Herbert +1300 Odds
Justin Herbert enters 2023 in a fascinating position. He and the rest of the Chargers offense could very well be one of the five best offenses in the NFL. His supporting cast of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and others is something that other teams are longing for. On the other hand, Los Angeles enters the season with a fair amount of question marks as a defensive unit.
That could lead to possibly one of two outcomes for Herbert and the LA offense. For starters, they could routinely light up the stat sheet and the scoreboard each week. The Chargers could also get in their own way, making self-inflicted mistakes like we saw occasionally last year. His overall output could also end up somewhere in the middle of those extremes. Ideally, the value on Herbert is fair. But if you are wanting to place a bet on someone with longer odds, the next three names could all be more appealing.
Trevor Lawrence +1400 Odds
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Trevor Lawrence was nowhere near perfect in 2022. However, it was a pleasant sign of progress, following a trying rookie season. The coaching change to Doug Pederson was always going to be a major ticket to some level of success. In the end, he finished the season swimmingly and the Jaguars were able to emerge victorious in comeback fashion during the Wild Card round.
The betting value of Lawrence will surely involve his entire campaign. But in 2023, the Jaguars have a few significant stretches of playing playoff teams or near playoff teams from last year in short spans. Jacksonville will face both Kansas City and Buffalo early on. A back-to-back stretch of Pittsburgh and San Francisco in the middle of the year will be intriguing tests. Finally, Lawrence and the Jaguars will host each of Cincinnati and Baltimore in primetime matchups in early December. Will this quarterback get enough of the national narrative to win the NFL MVP award? That may not be as likely, compared to these final two names.
Lamar Jackson +1500 Odds
I understand that Lamar Jackson has not finished the season due to injury in each of the last two years. But at +1500 odds, I really like the betting value of this number, maybe even more than at least half of the names that we mentioned prior. The Baltimore Ravens were in need of a change at offensive coordinator. With Greg Roman out and Todd Monken in at that particular spot, I expect Jackson to get a chance to throw a lot more consistently.
If he can further unlock more success as a passer, especially with more volume in that area, his NFL MVP odds could rise instantly during the season. Jackson is also surrounded by new wide receivers like Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers. If those two immediately make an impact, Jackson is an amazing betting value here, currently sitting seventh on this list of NFL MVP betting odds.
Aaron Rodgers +1600 Odds
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Similar to Jackson, I am a bit surprised that Aaron Rodgers has this long of betting odds. Some of that may be due to him having such a down year last season, by his standards. The questions of him changing teams and joining one of the historically most disappointing NFL franchises could also raise a bit of doubt. By no means, is Rodgers and the Jets guaranteed to be great.
But what if we get the ultra-competitive and supercharged motivation that Rodgers displayed in some of his best seasons? Seeing the way in which he plays, he may be playing with plenty of spite to prove all of the doubters wrong. Overall, the national narrative will surely push hard for Rodgers to win another NFL MVP award, if New York does well. This could be a fun betting risk to take, if you believe in Rodgers himself and the Jets making strides.
Be on the lookout for more FPC NFL betting articles and analysis throughout the coming days. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.
– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.