Welcome to the 2023 version of the Goal-Line Guide, with Week 5 incorporating all that we have seen through the first month of the NFL season.
The Goal-Line Guide series takes a look at touchdown production from inside the 5-yard line. With an equal emphasis placed on both offensive and defensive efficiency, the goal of the guide is meant to determine which teams are most likely to score touchdowns on a weekly basis, and also how they will score. As you will notice in the table below, I divide my Goal-Line Grades into separate Rushing and Passing scores.
The method for which I use to create these Goal-line Grades is as follows. First, I look at each offenses’ touchdown production inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. An important facet is the fact that I split these numbers into rushing and passing touchdowns.
Next, I look at each team’s defenses. Specifically, how often those units allow touchdowns inside their own 5-yard line. Again, this is divided into rushing and passing plays. Then I pair the matchups, with each team’s offense alongside their opponent’s defense for that week.
After that, I add in each offense’s implied total set by the oddsmakers. The logic there is the teams with the highest projected point totals are most likely to be in the red zone more often, and naturally more likely to score more touchdowns.
New this year, I have also added the offensive and defense total touchdowns in each situation. Now instead of it just being percentage based, there is a component of overall production in the guide.
Finally, next to each team’s grades, I created a column indicating the disparity between each offense’s running and passing scores. I also showcase which phase has the better chance of producing touchdowns. All of those steps combined create the Goal-Line Grades that you are about see.
Goal-Line Guide Week 5
Team | Rushing GLG | Passing GLG | Dif. |
Arizona Cardinals | 73.5 | 105 | Pass + 31.5 |
Atlanta Falcons | 98.5 | 80.5 | Run + 18 |
Baltimore Ravens | 76 | 103.5 | Pass + 27.5 |
Buffalo Bills | 73.5 | 57.5 | Run + 16 |
Carolina Panthers | 54 | 114.5 | Pass + 60.5 |
Chicago Bears | 74.25 | 46.25 | Run + 28 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 57 | 46.5 | Run + 10.5 |
Dallas Cowboys | 83.25 | 69.75 | Run + 13.5 |
Denver Broncos | 39.25 | 72.75 | Pass + 33.5 |
Detroit Lions | 90 | 100.5 | Pass + 10.5 |
Green Bay Packers | 59 | 78.5 | Pass + 19.5 |
Houston Texans | 53 | 129 | Pass + 76 |
Indianapolis Colts | 87 | 48.5 | Run + 38.5 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 72 | 45 | Run + 27 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 77 | 96 | Pass + 19 |
Las Vegas Raiders | 68 | 46 | Run + 22 |
Los Angeles Rams | 87.5 | 66.5 | Run + 21 |
Miami Dolphins | 95 | 61.5 | Run + 33.5 |
Minnesota Vikings | 22.5 | 64 | Pass + 41.5 |
New England Patriots | 87.75 | 52.25 | Run + 35.5 |
New Orleans Saints | 66.75 | 43.75 | Run + 23 |
New York Giants | 107 | 34 | Run + 73 |
New York Jets | 41.25 | 98.75 | Pass + 57.5 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 79.5 | 68 | Run + 11.5 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 20 | 68 | Pass + 48 |
San Francisco 49ers | 109.75 | 73.25 | Run + 36.5 |
Tennessee Titans | 65.5 | 72 | Pass + 6.5 |
Washington Commanders | 82.75 | 74.25 | Run + 8 |
Here are a few observations from the Week 5 Goal-Line Guide.
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Young Rookies
The 2023 version of the Goal-Line Guide debuts with a couple of offenses that are being led by quarterbacks who made their NFL debuts this year. Namely, C.J. Stroud from the Houston Texans, and Bryce Young from the Carolina Panthers.
This week, the highest overall Goal-Line Grade belongs to the Texans passing attack with a grade of 129. And since the Houston rushing grade is only 53, this team also represents the highest difference between the two scores. It a perfect pairing of situation and matchup. The Texans have scored a touchdown on all of their throws inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Furthermore, the Falcons, Houston’s 5 opponent, have allowed opposing offenses to find the end zone on 100% of their pass attempts inside the 5-yard line.
In Week 5, I would expect both trends to continue and for the rookie Stroud to be a viable fantasy football starter. That also extends to his young wide receivers, specifically Nico Collins and Tank Dell. I would strongly consider starting all three of those Texans’ players.
Looking at the Panthers now, while they match Houston and have scored on every pass inside the opponent’s 5-yard line, the Lions defense have only allowed an 80% touchdown rate in those situations (still bad, but not as much as Atlanta). While I am less confident in Bryce Young’s ability than Stroud (see rookie rankings), I still want to start a couple of his receiving threats. However, unlike the young Texans duo, Carolina’s top two targets are veterans that they signed in free-agency: DJ Chark and Adam Thielen.
Giant Disappointment
Going from a playoff team to a 1-3 start is nothing short of a giant disappointment. However, one element that should be less surprising is Daniel Jones lack of passing touchdowns. Only once in his career so far has Jones eclipsed 15 passing touchdowns in a season. He has never been a high ceiling fantasy option, but he does posses a solid floor because of his legs.
Therefore, Jones is less hurt by the large Goal-Line Grade disparity that favors the running game. To be exact, a +73 difference for the Giants’ rushing score is the 2nd highest separation of a team’s Goal-Line Grades in Week 5 (behind only the Texans).
The fantasy takeaway here is that Jones can still be started, as can whoever ends up being the primary running back. That being said, I would avoid starting any of the Giants’ wide receivers this week. Even Darren Waller could be negatively affected (not that he has done much this year). However, the tight end landscape makes it so there may not be a better option available. The Giants’ Goal-Line Grade of 34 is the lowest in Week 5 for any passing offense.
Low/No Score
The two lowest Goal-Line Grades belong to a pair of northern rushing attacks. Neither the Minnesota Vikings or the Pittsburgh Steelers have scored a touchdown on any run inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. What’s even worse in that neither of the teams that they face in Week 5 (Chiefs, Ravens) have surrendered a score on the ground inside their respective 5-yard lines. That leaves the Vikings with a Rushing Goal-Line Grade of 22.5, while the Steelers sit even lower at 20 exactly.
Early this season, I had been advocating for Alexander Mattison to be an automatic start without question. That is not the case this week, as I would look for alternative options. The addition of Cam Akers to the backfield also complicates things for Mattison, as he may not get a full workhorse role.
Looking at Pittsburgh, Najee Harris had the most running back touches in the NFL in 2021. But with the Steelers drafting Jaylen Warren last season, the team has taken away some of Harris’ workload. Specifically his passing-down role. I would bench Harris in this matchup against the divisional rival Ravens.
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