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This Sunday will be the sixth meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. In what has been Kansas City’s biggest head-to-head challenger in the AFC West, these games have historically been tight. And not just tight on the scoreboard, either. Numerous times, the matchups between Mahomes and Herbert have been decided on the last play of the game or within the final minute of regulation.
This presents an excitement level for each potential matchup between the pair of passers. Both Mahomes and Herbert have wowed with their ability to create and hit on plays that sometimes seem impossible to have success on. To boot, that has shown up a handful of times in their meetings against each other.
What do prior Mahomes and Herbert matchups indicate, when looking back on them? How could that factor into this Sunday’s meeting? Let’s kick it off.
One-Score Games
Herbert’s Lone Meeting Against Different Chiefs QB
Justin Herbert has faced the Kansas City Chiefs six total times. One of those was not against Patrick Mahomes, however. In the regular season finale of the 2020 season, Kansas City rested their starters, sitting at 14-1 on the year. This allowed Chad Henne to get some reps in what ended up being a Chargers victory with a 38-21 final score. But in all five meetings between Mahomes and Herbert, the contests were all one-score games in the end.
First Of Many Exciting Finishes
Interestingly, Herbert’s first start against Kansas City was not initially planned. Tyrod Taylor opened the 2020 season as the LA starter. But, a team doctor accidentally punctured one of Taylor’s lungs while administering a pain-killing injection before a home game against the Chiefs. As a result, Herbert stepped in for his NFL debut. He was not fazed, whatsoever. Mahomes used both his arm and legs to force overtime. Finally, Harrison Butker drilled a long field goal for KC to win in overtime 23-20.
2021 Meetings
Both matchups between Mahomes and Herbert in 2021 were decided by six points. In the game at Kansas City, it was a wild, back-and-forth contest. At the end of the game, Herbert led a touchdown drive to put the Chargers on top 30-24, breaking a 24-24 tie with just 32 seconds left.
Then later that year at Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football, it was another back-and-forth duel. Mahomes led a late touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. He would eventually find Travis Kelce with 1:16 left on the clock in the second half, tying it up at 28-28. Fast forward to overtime, and Mahomes and Kelce connected again for the game-winning touchdown, in which the tight end weaved around defenders after the catch for an emphatic finish.
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2022 Meetings
Both games in 2022 between Mahomes and Herbert were decided by three points. Kansas City would go on to win both meetings last year. Believe it or not, it was actually a Herbert mistake that led to the Chiefs home win over the Chargers last season. Herbert threw an interception in the red zone. 2022 rookie cornerback Jaylen Watson would return it 99 yards for a pick-six, breaking a 17-17 tie.
Finally, the latest matchup between Mahomes and Herbert was decided in the final minute of regulation. The Chargers went up 27-23 with 1:46 left in the fourth quarter. Yet, it was too much time for Mahomes. Kansas City’s signal caller found Kelce on a crossing route and the Chiefs scored a touchdown with 31 seconds left, going up 30-27. This was Kelce’s third touchdown of the night. In the end, Kansas City intercepted Herbert to seal the deal.
Will History Repeat Itself?
Based on what we have seen so far between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, you almost have to anticipate a close finish. Mahomes and Herbert have each delivered tremendous drives near the end of their victories against each other. Moreover, many NFL games are often decided by just one score. We have seen that sway in the other direction a bit more early this season, compared to the average of the last few years. Though, Kansas City and Los Angeles are no strangers to tight games.
That is especially true this season. Kansas City has had four out of six games decided by one score this year already. Against the New York Jets and the Minnesota Vikings, specifically, it truly came down to the final drive for the Chiefs.
On the other hand, the Chargers have had all five of their games decided by one score this year. Almost every game for LA has been won in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter. Of course, those have not always gone in the favor of the Chargers and Herbert. They sit at 2-3 currently, two-and-a-half games back of Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Working Through Kinks
Beyond the historically close meetings between Mahomes and Herbert, both offenses are trying to figure some things out. Kansas City has been up and down as a passing offense. We have seen them take noticeable steps forward. Namely, rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice has stood out immensely in recent showings. On the flip side, the Chiefs have also made some uncharacteristic mistakes as a passing offense in key situations.
As for Herbert and the Chargers, putting a full game together has been a challenge for them in 2023. Los Angeles have been middle of the pack, at best, in terms of third down conversions. The Chargers currently sit 19th in the NFL in converting on third downs, currently at just 38.2 percent. For comparison, Kansas City is third best in the NFL in that area, having converted successfully on 48.2 percent of third downs.
Be on the lookout for more FPC Chiefs articles and analysis throughout this week. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.
– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.