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As we look ahead to Week 13 of the 2023 NFL schedule, we have plenty of matchups that are intriguing. Some teams are heavily favored to dominate their opponent this week. Meanwhile, there are still a few potential upsets that cannot be ruled out.
In terms of betting, there are a plethora of exciting options. This is true of both moneyline and spread picks. Plus, we are going to have some advantageous options to choose from for individual players. Which teams hold some betting value as either the favorite or as an underdog?
It it time to list my favorite plays of the week, with my favorite bets for teams with either the moneyline or the spread. To boot, I will also list a few player props that stand out for Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season. Let’s kick it off.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Best Bets: Moneyline
Of course, we are not going to list every team for the moneyline category. It is also important to note that we are looking to list the bets that hold the most potential value out of our given options. With that in mind, here are three teams that I like to win straight up in Week 13, who also hold a fair amount of betting value.
Houston Texans: -162 Odds
The Denver Broncos are coming into Houston with a five-game winning streak. Denver has figured out some things defensively. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson‘s numbers are suddenly good again. There is just something about this Houston Texans team when they are at home. That is especially true, as they are coming off of an emotional loss. With a chance to rebound, while also ending Denver’s momentum in a huge game for the AFC playoff race, I lean Texans in a bounce back spot.
Tennessee Titans: +100 Odds
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I have been impressed with Shane Steichen and the competitiveness of the Colts all season long. Indianapolis is currently in possession of the final wild card spot in the AFC. Yet, this feels like an ugly Titans’ division win waiting to happen. Derrick Henry is coming off of a strong performance. Tennessee’s defense is riding one of their best stretches of the year. Finally, these two rivals appear to split in most years. Give me the Titans to halt some of Indy’s momentum.
Philadelphia Eagles: +130 Odds
I understand that San Francisco is entering this game with a lot of angst and emotion. Last year’s NFC Championship Game will haunt these 49ers players for quite a while. And yes, San Francisco was my Super Bowl winner when I made my picks going into the season. At the same time, the Eagles just know how to win these big games. Just look at some of their recent wins and victories at home this season. Not to mention, the fact that I can get Philadelphia as underdogs at home is even more appealing when taking the Eagles moneyline here.
Best Bets: Spread
Betting on teams to cover the spread is not always about taking someone who you feel should easily cover, whether that is the favorite or the underdog. However, finding teams that play hard or matchups that have historically been close are key. Finding the number that you believe is possibly too low or too high is also key. You can then thread the needle on either side of the betting odds with whoever you believe holds the better betting value. Here are three teams that offer fair betting value in Week 13, when looking at the spread.
Miami Dolphins: -9.5 at Washington Commanders
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Even at this number, it may still be too low for the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are generally considered more dangerous at home. Nonetheless, this is a Washington squad that is likely at their lowest point of the season. Sitting at 4-8, the Commanders rank last in the NFL in points allowed. Washington is allowing a horrific 29.2 points per game. This game could be over quickly if the Dolphins offense plays like they have most of the season. Additionally, Washington has given up too many sacks (second most allowed) and has turned it over too much (third most offensive turnovers) to stay within this spread.
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New England Patriots: +5.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers
Call me crazy, but I actually think the New England Patriots have their best chance of winning in this game, compared to any other game left on their schedule. As hapless as New England has been, they are at home here. The Chargers have made even the worst offenses look somewhat competent. On the flip side, the Patriots have only allowed 20 points or less in three straight games. Even if they lose, this number feels a touch too high, given the way the Chargers have performed lately, especially against physical teams.
Los Angeles Rams: -4 vs Cleveland Browns
Matthew Stafford has returned with positive results. On the other hand, the Rams defense has found some mojo with younger pieces. Yes, the Browns defense has been as good as almost anyone most of the year. We also know that Cleveland can stay in games by running the football. But with injuries at the QB spot, the Browns could perhaps be running out of gas entering the homestretch of the season. With LA gaining more steam, and remaining stingy under Sean McVay, I like them to cover here.
Favorite Player Props
Player prop bets can sometimes be tricky to find the perfect betting value. Some star players do not consistently produce at a high clip. Nevertheless, here are four player prop bets that I enjoy for the thirteenth weekend of NFL action.
Najee Harris: Over 55.5 Rushing Yards
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Jaylen Warren has been incredible for the Steelers offense. But quietly, Najee Harris has still come through in tight moments for Pittsburgh. His yards per carry is currently better than his first two seasons. Moreover, Harris has topped this figure in three of the last four games. The Steelers have also given him double-digit carries in all but two games this season. With those constant chances, and expected opportunities to run out the clock against Arizona, Harris could cash in for bettors for another week.
Bijan Robinson: Over 58.5 Rushing Yards
For a while, fantasy football owners who had Bijan Robinson were puzzled. A lack of touches in the red zone led to those fantasy footballers to rip their hair out. But in the last few weeks, Robinson has feasted with increased opportunities. Sure, the Jets have a stingy defense. They have not showed up the last couple of weeks, however. Robinson has 51 or more yards in four consecutive games, including two straight over 90 yards rushing. As long as he continues to get double-digit carries, give me Bijan to continue his hot stretch.
Justin Watson: Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
Despite some up-and-down moments from this wide receiver, Justin Watson has been one of the more productive Chiefs wide receivers. His chemistry with Patrick Mahomes and trust received from the KC QB has him in a good spot. All told, this number may be too low, if Watson continues to get chances and Kansas City builds off of last week’s positive offensive performance. Watson has topped this figure in six of his ten games this season. I think he will top it, once again.
Christian Kirk: Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
The Cincinnati Bengals are in a difficult spot without Joe Burrow. But if we are being honest, the Bengals defense has struggled for most of the season. Christian Kirk has been able to hit on many explosive plays for Jacksonville. He consistently gets a handful of targets or more each week. More importantly, Kirk’s yards per reception are fairly healthy. Against a struggling Cincinnati secondary, give me Kirk to have another highly productive night for the Jaguars.
Be on the lookout for more FPC NFL betting articles throughout this 2023 NFL season. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.
– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.