Embed from Getty Images
We are down to just four teams left in this year’s NFL playoffs. The Divisional Round largely lived up to the hype in most of the four games. Now entering the Conference Championship Games, you could argue that any of the four teams remaining could win the Super Bowl.
In our Divisional Round picks in the best bets article, the game line picks went a combined 3-1. Our only miss was the total points on Green Bay at San Francisco fell six points short of hitting the over. Meanwhile, our player prop picks were a combined 2-2 on Divisional Round weekend. Fast forward to the Conference Championships, and we once again have a plethora of exciting options, when it comes to betting.
Can both one seeds take care of business at home as favorites? Will the road teams be able to control things as underdogs? Plus, how many points can we expect from either conference championship game?
For each game, we will be deciding what the best option is between the moneyline, spread and the over or the under. Elsewhere, we will list a few player props that are worth taking for each contest, to boot. Let’s kick it off.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Kansas City Chiefs At Baltimore Ravens
Best Game Line Pick: Over 44.5 Total Points -110 Odds
In the regular season, the Ravens (first) and the Chiefs (second) finished as the two best teams in scoring defense. So, why do I like the over so much in this AFC Championship Game? For one, Kansas City’s offense has played some of their best games all season in these playoffs. Baltimore is also being led by a determined Lamar Jackson, as he is surrounded by the deepest cast of weapons of his career. The defenses could still get some stops. Though, this just feels like too much of a shootout, back-and-forth kind of game, given how these two quarterbacks are built. I just believe both teams will have no issue getting to 20 points, and perhaps a little more on each side.
First Favorite Player Prop: Gus Edwards Alternate Rushing Yards 50 Or More +100 Odds
Embed from Getty Images
Gus Edwards has received double-digit carries in four of his last five games. In all of those four, Edwards has produced at least 40 rushing yards or more. I think there is a good argument that he could get at least 50 yards rushing on Sunday. On one hand, he is one of the more difficult running backs to bring down, compared to what the Chiefs defense has seen. He just keeps finding extra, hidden yards. To boot, Kansas City’s run defense is the Achilles heel of their impressive defensive unit.
Second Favorite Player Prop: Noah Gray Over 1.5 Receptions +120 Odds
If you have been watching the Chiefs closely in the playoffs, you have likely noticed specific personnel packages. The Kansas City offense has been utilizing multiple tight end sets effectively. Whether it is 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) or 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends), defenses are leaving guys open because of it. With so much attention going to Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice, Noah Gray is a secondary weapon that could see some action. Given you can get plus-odds for him getting two receptions or more, I will gladly take it.
- Feed has no items.
Sneaky Good Anytime TD Scorer Prop: Patrick Mahomes +475 Odds
For our anytime touchdown scorer props, we are not just going to list simple names. We want to list the names that could offer the best value and a bigger payout. If you look at some of the longer odds in the AFC Championship Game, Patrick Mahomes stands out for this category. When the calendar flips to the playoffs, we just see Mahomes use his legs a lot more often and he usually pulls off significant gains. In his playoff career, the Chiefs quarterback has ran for 443 yards on 75 rush attempts, good enough for 5.9 yards per carry in 16 career playoff games. Mahomes also has five rushing touchdowns in his playoff career so far.
Detroit Lions At San Francisco 49ers
Best Game Line Pick: Detroit Lions +7 Spread -108 Odds
There are a lot of people already writing off the Detroit Lions for this Sunday. Understandably, the San Francisco 49ers are a dangerous team at home. They have more playoff experience recently than Detroit does, on top of that. Yet, this 49ers team is facing more pressure than the Lions are. San Francisco did not play a very clean game last week. And when matching up with them, the Lions can potentially keep pace, simply because of their offense. Simply put, seven points feels too high for me. I will take Detroit to cover the spread in a game I expect to be tight until the very end.
First Favorite Player Prop: David Montgomery Over 44.5 Rushing Yards -115 Odds
David Montgomery received double-digit carries in all but one game that he appeared in this season. The Lions have a versatile and well-rounded offense. Also in the backfield, Jahmyr Gibbs has begun to find a tremendous rhythm. Montgomery is the runner that I am more willing to gamble on, however. In this particular matchup, the power and physical nature of Montgomery’s rushing style can potentially give San Francisco some fits. The 49ers are not as dominant defensively as they were in prior years. And given his usage, I think Montgomery can hit this over in advance of the back half of the fourth quarter.
Second Favorite Player Prop: Josh Reynolds Alternate Receiving Yards 40 Or More +100 Odds
Embed from Getty Images
There are a couple of elite pass catchers on this Detroit offense. And while I still believe guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta can have big games, Josh Reynolds is always a name to watch in key moments for the Lions. Reynolds has a great rapport with Jared Goff, due to their time together with the Rams. And getting plus-odds for only 40 or more receiving yards feels like a free gift. Reynolds is huge for the Lions in the intermediate passing game or underneath out of the slot. It feels like whenever Goff and him connect, it is for immense chunk gains down the field. I will gladly buy into Reynolds against a shaky 49ers secondary.
Sneaky Good Anytime TD Scorer Prop: Jameson Williams +370 Odds
With this anytime touchdown scorer prop, the odds were not as long as Mahomes was above. Yet, this could still be a sneaky good one with longer odds. Jameson Williams may not receive as many touches as one would hope for a former first-round pick. But when he does touch the ball, it always feels electric. This 49ers defense has given up some shots down the field. Perhaps with his speed, Williams can burn San Francisco on a deep route. Elsewhere, Williams can be used in a variety of ways in the red zone. A crossing route or an end around is always available to open up for him down low. I would not be surprised if he somehow scored, even if he only finished with two or three touches.
Be on the lookout for more FPC NFL playoff and betting articles throughout the coming days. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.
– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.