Monday Night Football gives us one of the cleanest strength-on-strength matchups of Week 8.
Chicago enters Seattle at 5-2 with one of the league’s better overall FTI profiles. The Seahawks are 4-3 and rate slightly lower overall, but they bring one of the best defenses in football into a matchup against a Bears offense that has become increasingly efficient since Caleb Williams returned.
The Full Press Team Index does not see these teams as mirror images.
It sees Chicago as the more balanced team.
It sees Seattle as the more extreme one.
And that is what makes this matchup so interesting.
Bears vs. Seahawks: The FTI Snapshot
| Team | FTI | FTI Rank | FOI | FOI Rank | FDI | FDI Rank | FSI Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 70.07 | 3rd | 62.38 | 9th | 62.54 | 6th | 4th |
| Seattle Seahawks | 67.78 | 5th | 44.02 | 21st | 78.06 | 2nd | 3rd |
Chicago holds the slight overall FTI edge, but Seattle owns the single strongest unit in the game: its defense.
The Seahawks rank No. 2 in FDI at 78.06, while Chicago’s offense ranks No. 9 in FOI at 62.38.
That is the matchup to start with.
Chicago’s Offense vs. Seattle’s Defense: The Main Event
The Bears offense has produced 0.154 EPA per pass and a 47.0 percent offensive success rate through the current FTI sample.
That passing efficiency is one of the biggest reasons Chicago has climbed into the top three overall in FTI.
Seattle is built to attack that exact strength.
The Seahawks are allowing minus-0.070 EPA per pass, own a 63.6 percent defensive stop rate and rank second overall in FDI.
Chicago’s own game preview frames this as strength versus strength: the Bears enter Monday night ranked third in total offense, while Seattle leads the league in total defense and passing yards allowed.
FTI backs that up.
If Caleb Williams can stay efficient against Seattle, it would be one of Chicago’s most impressive offensive performances of the season.
The Bears’ Passing Game Is Better Positioned Than the Run Game
This is where the FTI profile becomes useful.
Chicago ranks first in the NFL in rushing yards per game, but FTI is less impressed by the efficiency underneath that volume.
The Bears are producing minus-0.082 rushing EPA.
Seattle’s defense is allowing minus-0.196 rushing EPA.
That suggests the Seahawks are well positioned to make Chicago’s run game look less productive than the raw yardage ranking would suggest.
The cleaner offensive path may be through Williams.
Chicago has generated 0.202 EPA on late downs, and Williams has been excellent since returning from the hamstring injury.
But even there, Seattle presents resistance.
The Seahawks are allowing just minus-0.067 EPA on late downs.
This is a matchup where Chicago may have to win on first and second down rather than relying on third-down magic.
Seattle’s Defense Wins With Stops More Than Chaos
One interesting wrinkle in Seattle’s FDI profile is how the Seahawks get results.
The defense has an elite 97 defensive value score and a league-best-caliber 99 stop score.
But its disruption score is only 34.
That tells us Seattle does not need to create constant sacks or negative plays to dominate.
It wins by repeatedly preventing successful offense.
That is a different challenge for Chicago than facing a defense that simply blitzes and hunts explosive mistakes.
Williams may have time to throw on some snaps.
The question is whether anyone will actually be open.
Seattle’s Offense Is More Fragile Than Its Record Suggests
The Seahawks’ overall FTI rank of fifth looks elite.
The offense does not.
Seattle ranks just 21st in FOI at 44.02.
The passing game has still generated positive value at 0.103 EPA per pass, but the running game has been a major drag at minus-0.225 rushing EPA.
That makes Seattle one of the more pass-dependent offenses on the slate.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the obvious reason the passing game remains dangerous. He enters Monday night leading the NFL in receiving yards and touchdowns, and Chicago will have to account for him on virtually every critical down.
But FTI says Seattle does not have a balanced offensive fallback if Chicago can disrupt the passing game.
Chicago’s Defense Has a Very Specific Edge
The Bears rank No. 6 in FDI at 62.54.
They are allowing only minus-0.097 rushing EPA, which lines up well against Seattle’s biggest offensive weakness.
Chicago also owns a 16.7 percent defensive disruption rate and a 97 disruption score.
That matters against a Seattle offense with a 2.84 percent turnover rate.
Sam Darnold has thrown eight interceptions this season, and the Bears’ path to controlling the game may be forcing him into obvious passing downs and then speeding up his decisions.
Chicago has also been outstanding on late downs, allowing minus-0.560 EPA in those situations.
That may be the single biggest FTI advantage the Bears defense carries into this game.
Seattle Needs to Win Early Downs
If Seattle gets behind the chains, the matchup gets ugly quickly.
The Seahawks are already producing minus-0.061 EPA on early downs.
Chicago’s defense has not been dominant on early downs, allowing 0.133 EPA, so there is an opening.
Seattle has to use it.
That means quick throws, efficient early-down passing and enough success from Zach Charbonnet‘s return to keep Chicago from treating every possession like a passing situation.
Charbonnet is cleared to make his season debut Monday after recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in last year’s playoffs.
The Seahawks do not need him to carry the offense.
They need him to make the run game credible enough that Chicago cannot ignore it.
The Offensive Line Could Decide Seattle’s Side of the Matchup
Seattle will be without left tackle Charles Cross because of an ankle injury.
Rashid Shaheed is also out, while Uchenna Nwosu is doubtful. The official NFL injury report also lists guard Anthony Bradford as questionable.
That matters because Chicago’s disruption ability is one of the strongest parts of its FDI profile.
The Bears also expect Jeffery Simmons to make his Chicago debut Monday after the blockbuster trade with Tennessee.
Seattle, meanwhile, added Quenton Nelson during the week.
That creates an unusual dynamic: two elite interior linemen changing teams and potentially facing each other immediately.
The trench matchup is not separate from FTI.
It is one of the clearest reasons Chicago’s defensive disruption score could matter so much.
Special Teams Is Essentially a Draw
Unlike some of the other FTI matchups we have broken down, there is no obvious special-teams mismatch here.
Seattle ranks No. 3 in FSI at 72.85.
Chicago ranks No. 4 at 71.46.
Both teams have received elite-level value from special teams.
That means field position is likely to matter, but neither side should enter the game expecting a built-in advantage there.
FTI Verdict: Chicago Is More Balanced, Seattle Has the Best Unit
The overall FTI lean is Chicago.
The Bears rank third overall, with a top-10 offense, top-six defense and top-four special teams.
There is no obvious weak phase.
Seattle ranks fifth overall largely because its defense and special teams are elite enough to compensate for an offense that ranks 21st in FOI.
That creates a very straightforward Monday-night question:
Can Chicago’s offense survive Seattle’s No. 2 FDI?
If the answer is yes, the Bears have the more complete profile and should control the game.
If Seattle’s defense wins that matchup decisively, the Seahawks can drag Chicago into the kind of low-possession, field-position game where their defense and special teams become the dominant factors.
FTI edge: Chicago.
Best Seattle advantage: No. 2 FDI against Chicago’s No. 9 FOI.
Best Chicago advantage: No. 6 FDI against Seattle’s No. 21 FOI, especially on late downs.
Metric to watch: Caleb Williams’ passing EPA against Seattle’s pass EPA allowed.
That is where Monday Night Football should be decided.
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