Goal-Line Guide Week 13
As we approach the end of the fantasy football regular season, wins become even more and more important. Usually, the biggest factor in matchups is touchdowns. That is why I created the Goal-Line Guide, as a way to better predict TD production on a weekly basis. In the Goal-Line Guide Week 13, there may be some surprising scores.
For details on my methodology for the Goal-Line Guide, you can read my first article of the season about this subject.
Here are the Goal-Line Grades for Week 13.
Team | Rushing Goal-Line Grade | Passing Goal-Line Grade |
Arizona Cardinals | 76.5 | 62 |
Atlanta Falcons | 62.75 | 77.75 |
Baltimore Ravens | 69.75 | 83.75 |
Buffalo Bills | 49.5 | 87 |
Chicago Bears | 65.5 | 61.5 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 72.25 | 66.25 |
Dallas Cowboys | 67.5 | 75 |
Denver Broncos | 55 | 71.5 |
Detroit Lions | 72 | 79.5 |
Houston Texans | 54.25 | 73.75 |
Indianapolis Colts | 67.25 | 68.25 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 67.5 | 52 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 83.5 | 98.5 |
Las Vegas Raiders | 82.25 | 91.75 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 83.75 | 76.25 |
Los Angeles Rams | 74.5 | 68 |
Miami Dolphins | 54.75 | 69.75 |
Minnesota Vikings | 71.5 | 82.5 |
New England Patriots | 80.5 | 65 |
New Orleans Saints | 63.5 | 69 |
New York Giants | 58.75 | 54.75 |
New York Jets | 63.25 | 53.23 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 68.25 | 72.25 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 59.25 | 56.75 |
San Francisco 49ers | 74 | 53.5 |
Seattle Seahawks | 75.5 | 67 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 83.25 | 88.25 |
Washington Football Team | 55.25 | 75.75 |
For this week, the AFC West is the most noteworthy division for the Goal-Line Grades. Here are a few words about those teams.
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Broncos @ Chiefs
A pair of AFC West rivals square off as the Broncos travel to Kansas City. Both teams are on opposite ends of the Goal-Line Guide Week 13 spectrum.
Kansas City Chiefs Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 83.5
Kansas City Chiefs Passing Goal-Line Grade: 98.5
The Chiefs have the second-best Rushing Goal-Line of the week. Now that he is back healthy, Clyde Edwards-Helaire should benefit from this matchup with Denver. The Broncos are one of only eight NFL teams playing in Week 13 that have allowed touchdowns on over half of the attempts they have faced inside their own 5-yard line. If Kansas City gets close to the Goal-Line, Clyde can guide them for the score.
The only thing more impressive than the Chiefs Goal-Line Grade on the ground is their score through the air. At 98.5, the Chiefs Passing Goal-line Grade is actually the highest of any team this week. Once again, Edwards-Helaire makes contributions. In spite of the games that the RB missed due to injury, he is still tied for fourth on the team in targets from inside the 10-yard line. Still, it is Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce who are first and second on the Chiefs in that category. That duo should once again be dominant.
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Denver Broncos Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 55
Denver Broncos Passing Goal-Line Grade: 71.5
As you see, Denver’s Passing Goal-Line Grade is decent, right around league average. However, on the ground that is a different story. With a score of 55, the Broncos have the fourth-worst Rushing Goal-Line Grade of the week. I would lower expectations for a player like Melvin Gordon whose production has been tied in part to his ability to find the end zone.
Air Raid(ers)
Las Vegas Raiders Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 82.25
Las Vegas Raiders Passing Goal-Line Grade: 91.75
While the Chiefs have a pair of impressive Goal-Line Grades, Las Vegas is right there with them. The Raiders have not only the fourth-best Goal-Line Grade on the ground, but at 91.75 their passing score is the second-highest overall.
In terms of individual players who benefit, it all begins with Josh Jacobs. For starters, he has over half of the Raiders rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line. But Jacobs has also had some involvement in the passing game. He is actually tied for third on the team for targets inside the 10-yard line. However, the team leader in that regard may surprise. It is not the injured TE but instead WR Hunter Renfrow. He and Darren Waller are the only players on Las Vegas to score multiple receiving touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. If you expand to the entire red-zone, then Foster Moreau also makes the threshold. With Waller out for this game, Moreau will have to step up to join Renfrow as the red-zone monsters on the team.
All Charged Up
Los Angeles Chargers Rushing Goal-line Grade: 83.75
Los Angeles Chargers Passing Goal-line Grade: 76.25
Earlier in the article, I referenced the fact that the Chiefs had the second-highest Rushing Goal-Line Grade, and that the Raiders weren’t that far behind at fourth. Well, the team with the best score also happens to be in the AFC West. With a Goal-line Grade of 83.75, the Chargers have the best Grade on the ground this week. Austin Ekeler should be ranked rather highly among all running backs this week. On the season, he has three-quarters of the Chargers caries from inside the 5-yard line. Furthermore, the Chargers also have a decent Passing Goal-Line Grade, which should also benefit Ekeler due to his involvement in the aerial attack.
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Low-Line Of The Week
Buffalo Bills Rushing Goal-line Grade: 49.5
This week, the lowest Goal-Line Grade belongs to the Buffalo Bills. This is specifically on the ground as their Passing Goal-Line Grade is the fourth-best in Week 13. That close to 40 point disparity in Goal-Line Grades for the Bills should lead to minimal TD chance for the running backs. The main reason for such a low score is the opponent. The Patriots have surrendered a TD on only 9% of rushing plays from inside their own 5-yard line. Not only is that the best defensive rate in the league, but also no other team is within 20% of them.
The actionable advice would be to bench all Buffalo running backs. Lately, Devin Singletary has been splitting time with Matt Breida. In those games, Zack Moss has barely played (he was even a healthy scratch last week). Moss is certainly not playable in those circumstances. However, I would go one step further and say bench them all. If I can, I will even look to keep Singletary out of starting lineups as much as possible.
Red-zone data curtsey of 4for4
Thank you for reading Goal-Line Guide Week 13. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.
– Kyle Senra is the managing editor for the Full Press Fantasy Sports. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @SenraSays Follow @FPC_FantasyPod and Facebook.