Goal-Line Guide Week 6 attempts to pick out the teams most likely to score offensive touchdowns, and how they will produce said scores.
The Goal-Line Guide series takes a look at touchdown production from inside the 5-yard line. With an equal emphasis placed on both offensive and defensive efficiency, the goal of the guide is meant to determine which teams are most likely to score touchdowns on a weekly basis, and also how they will score. As you will notice in the table below, I divide my Goal-Line Grades into separate Rushing and Passing scores.
The method for which I use to create these Goal-line Grades is as follows. First, I look at each offenses’ touchdown production inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. An important facet is the fact that I split these numbers into rushing and passing touchdowns.
Next, I look at each team’s defenses. Specifically, how often those units allow touchdowns inside their own 5-yard line. Again, this is divided into rushing and passing plays. Then I pair the matchups, with each team’s offense alongside their opponent’s defense for that week.
After that, I add in each offense’s implied total set by the oddsmakers. The logic there is the teams with the highest projected point totals are most likely to be in the red zone more often, and naturally more likely to score more touchdowns.
New this year, I have also added the offensive and defense total touchdowns in each situation. Now instead of it just being percentage based, there is a component of overall production in the guide.
Finally, next to each team’s grades, I created a column indicating the disparity between each offense’s running and passing scores. I also showcase which phase has the better chance of producing touchdowns. All of those steps combined create the Goal-Line Grades that you are about see.
Goal-Line Guide Week 6
Team | Rushing GLG | Passing GLG | Difference |
Arizona Cardinals | 80.25 | 101.75 | Pass+ 21.5 |
Atlanta Falcons | 68.75 | 62.75 | Run + 6 |
Baltimore Ravens | 98.75 | 30.75 | Run + 68 |
Buffalo Bills | 88.25 | 77.25 | Run + 11 |
Carolina Panthers | 70.75 | 72.75 | Pass + 2 |
Chicago Bears | 74 | 96.5 | Pass + 22.5 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 67 | 69.5 | Pass + 2.5 |
Cleveland Browns | 105.75 | 122.25 | Pass + 16.5 |
Dallas Cowboys | 62.5 | 41.5 | Run + 21 |
Denver Broncos | 31.5 | 68 | Pass + 36.5 |
Detroit Lions | 84.75 | 94.75 | Pass + 10 |
Houston Texans | 42.5 | 100.5 | Pass + 58 |
Indianapolis Colts | 70.75 | 58.25 | Run + 12.5 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 77.25 | 27.25 | Run + 50 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 81 | 93.5 | Pass + 12.5 |
Las Vegas Raiders | 61 | 64.5 | Pass + 3.5 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 82 | 115 | Pass + 33 |
Los Angeles Rams | 88.25 | 71.25 | Run + 17 |
Miami Dolphins | 88.75 | 82.25 | Run + 6.5 |
Minnesota Vikings | 55.5 | 96 | Pass + 40.5 |
New England Patriots | 91 | 35 | Run + 56 |
New Orleans Saints | 91.5 | 74 | Run + 17.5 |
New York Giants | 86.25 | 43.75 | Run + 42.5 |
New York Jets | 45 | 91 | Pass + 46 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 60.5 | 79 | Pass + 18.5 |
San Francisco 49ers | 84.25 | 35.75 | Run + 48.5 |
Seattle Seahawks | 60 | 109 | Pass + 49 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 56.75 | 93.25 | Pass + 36.5 |
Tennessee Titans | 35.75 | 92.25 | Pass + 56.5 |
Washington Commanders | 65.25 | 90.25 | Pass + 25 |
Here are a few observations from the Goal-Line Guide Week 6.
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Running Ravens
As mentioned above, the Goal-Line Guide is divided into rushing and passing scores for each team. In Week 6, the Baltimore Ravens have the largest differential between their two scores. With a + 68 differential favoring the ground game, the Ravens Rushing Goal-Line Grade is 98.75, while their passing score is 30.75. That represents the lowest Passing Goal-Line of the week, and the 2nd lowest overall.
What does this mean for the Baltimore offense? Well, first off, I think Lamar Jackson will be just fine. His running ability gives him multiple ways to access a fantasy ceiling, including by scoring a rushing touchdown or two. Even with poor passing potential in a matchup, Jackson still has a chance to finish as QB #1 overall.
As for the Ravens running backs, both of the main guys could be viable starters in fantasy football lineups. Gus Edwards has been leading the team in rushing attempts most weeks, so he should be a strong start. However, Justice Hill has received more carries from inside the opponent’s 5-yard line this year. So Hill might be the running back that finds the end zone.
AFC South Opposites
The two teams with the highest Goal-Line Grade differentials favoring the passing game are the Houston Texans and the Tennessee Titans. Both offenses have produced 100% touchdown rate when they throw the football inside opponents’ 5-yard line. While I do not expect that to be the case all year long, I would still take advantage and certain pass-catchers on these AFC South teams. Namely Nico Collins from the Texans and DeAndre Hopkins on the Titans. Not to mention of course the rookie QB C.J. Stroud, who I wrote about in last week’s Fantasy Football: Goal-Line Guide.
Meanwhile, heading over to the Jacksonville Jaguars, we see the exact opposite situation. The team from Duvall county boasts a +50 differential favoring the run game, the 3rd largest in that direction this week. Jacksonville’s Passing Goal-Line Grade is above average at 77.25. However, it’s the rushing score that really affects this differential. Not only have the Jaguars failed to score a touchdown on any pass attempt inside opponents’ 5-yard line, but the team they face this week (the AFC South rival Colts) have not allowed a goal-line touchdown through the air yet this season. As a result, I have Travis Etienne all the way up to RB #2 on the week, while Trevor Lawrence finds himself outside the top 15 quarterbacks.
Pathetic Pats Passing
Much like the Jaguars, the New England Patriots have 0 passing touchdowns inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Their Week 6 opponent likely won’t help the Pats’ case as the Raiders have only surrendered scoring plays on 25% of pass attempts inside their own 5-yard line. This creates a New England Passing Goal-Line Grade of 35, which is 56 points behind their rushing score of 91.
My main takeaway is to avoid Patriots passing options during this Week 6 matchup. Even with his recent struggles, I would still start Rhamondre Stevenson given that he has more touchdown upside in this matchup. However, I have Mac Jones ranked as the lowest starter among all quarterbacks this week.
Soaring Seahawks
The 6th largest Goal-Line Grade differential of Week 6 belongs to the Seattle Seahawks at +49 favoring the arial attack. They are one of six teams with a 100% touchdown rate on pass attempts inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. But also, the Bengals have allowed touchdowns on 63% of throws inside their own 5-yard line. All of that together gives the Seahawks a Passing Goal-Line Grade of 109, the 3rd highest overall of the week.
The three main beneficiaries of this grade are quarterback Geno Smith as well as the wide receiver duo of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. I have elevated all three players in my weekly fantasy football rankings as a result of this. The Goal-Line Guide Week 6 is predicting somewhat of a shootout for this Seattle vs Cincinnati matchup.
49ers-Browns Goal-Line Guide Week 6
In a strange turn of events, the Cleveland Browns have both the highest Rushing Goal-Line Grade (105.75) and Passing Goal-Line Grade (122.25) of the week. The stout San Francisco 49ers defense does have one slight weakness: they have surrendered a touchdown on every single play from inside their own 5-yard line. Now before panicking, that is exactly 1 rushing touchdown and 1 passing major allowed so far this season. Meaning that opponent’s rarely get close to the 49ers goal-line. So the offenses that have been able to get that far are also able to finish the job.
The Browns would certainly need their starting quarterback in order to take advantage of this facet of the matchup. If Cleveland is forced to go with another backup QB this week, then you can throw the Goal-Line Grades out the window because I doubt they get anywhere close to the end zone. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is the only Browns player I have any confidence in starting.
Looking at the 49ers offense, they have a Goal-Line Grade Differential of +48.5 favoring the ground game. Cleveland’s defense has been strong this year, and have not yet allowed an offense to score on a pass attempt from inside their own 5-yard line. This falls in line with the San Francisco approach as they have 6 rushing touchdown inside the opponent’s 5-yard line this season, with only 1 passing touchdown from that same area.
Christian McCaffrey doesn’t need a strong Goal-Line Grade in order to be ranked as the RB #1 on the week, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. I would also not overact and bench the 49ers pass-catching options. Both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel should still see spots in starting lineups. Tight End George Kittle is tricky because of the boom-bust nature of his game. And coming off of a 3 touchdown performance, expect a bust game soon from Kittle. However, I still want to put him in fantasy lineups every week in order to capture all of his spike performances.
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