Falcons vs. Packers: Three Matchups That Could Decide Thursday Night Football

The Atlanta Falcons finally get Michael Penix Jr. back. The Green Bay Packers head into their home opener with more holes to fill around Jordan Love.

That makes Thursday night a test of how quickly each offense can adjust.

Green Bay enters at 1-1 after its overtime victory over the Jets. Atlanta is 0-2, with a quarterback change offering hope for an offense that has struggled to sustain drives. Their Week 3 meeting kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

Here are three matchups that could decide which team leaves Lambeau Field with a much better outlook.

1. Green Bay’s Shuffled Offensive Line vs. Atlanta’s Pass Rush

The Packers have ruled out guard Aaron Banks and tackle Zach Bako-Bewele. Anthony Belton, who replaced Bako-Bewele against the Jets, has no game designation after appearing on the injury report with an elbow issue. Donovan Jennings is also available despite a hand injury.

Having those options helps. Getting a reshuffled group to communicate through an entire game is the next challenge.

For Atlanta, Za’Darius Smith gives the front a veteran capable of testing that coordination. The Falcons will be without Samson Ebukam, but Brandon Dorlus carries no game designation.

The tactical opportunity for Atlanta is to force Green Bay’s blockers to exchange assignments. Moving rushers before the snap and using stunts could test whether the protection passes defenders off cleanly. A free rusher matters more than a favorable matchup that takes three seconds to win.

Matt LaFleur can help his line with quick throws, screens and occasional extra protection. Each choice brings a tradeoff: keeping another eligible receiver in to block gives Love fewer options downfield.

What to watch: Whether Love can step forward and deliver on third down. If Atlanta collapses the pocket without sending extra rushers, its secondary can keep more defenders in coverage.

2. The Packers’ Remaining Targets vs. Atlanta’s Depleted Secondary

Reed is out with a neck injury. Across the field, Atlanta has placed A.J. Terrell Jr. on injured reserve with a groin injury. Billy Bowman is questionable with an Achilles injury.

Both teams have to redistribute responsibility.

Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft give Green Bay established alternatives. Kraft already showed his ability to threaten the middle of the field in the opener, producing receptions of 30 and 23 yards against Minnesota.

That creates an appealing approach for LaFleur: use the outside receivers to stretch the coverage, then give Kraft opportunities underneath or up the seam. Success there could also help Love get the ball out before pressure arrives.

C.J. Henderson replaced Terrell against Carolina, playing opposite Mike Hughes. Atlanta also has the option of moving Avieon Terrell outside, although that would affect its arrangements at nickel.

Green Bay should make those defensive backs communicate through motion and changing formations. The aim should be to identify where Atlanta needs help and force a safety to choose between two threats.

There is urgency here. The Packers entered the week converting just 19.1 percent of their third downs. They need dependable completions that extend possessions.

What to watch: Who earns Love’s trust on third-and-medium. Replacing Reed will require reliable routes and catches from several players.

3. Michael Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson vs. Green Bay’s Defensive Front

Atlanta has named Penix its starter for his first appearance of the season, following his recovery from last year’s knee injury. He takes over an offense that went through its first two games without reaching the red zone.

Bijan Robinson gives him a productive starting point. Robinson has 155 rushing yards and 99 receiving yards through two games, according to the Packers’ matchup breakdown.

Green Bay presents a difficult test. Its defense has allowed only 2.85 yards per carry and collected seven sacks through two games. Warren Brinson is out, while fellow defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Anthony Campbell are questionable, leaving the interior rotation dependent on availability.

Kevin Stefanski’s best route to settling Penix into the game may be to make Robinson useful in several ways early: conventional handoffs, screens and short outlets that punish an aggressive rush. Successful early downs would give Atlanta more freedom to choose when it asks Penix to attack downfield.

For Green Bay, the priority should be disciplined pursuit. Overcommitting to Robinson could open passing windows behind the linebackers. Sitting back and allowing easy gains would make the returning quarterback’s job more comfortable.

What to watch: Atlanta’s first-down efficiency. Repeated second-and-long situations would put too much of the offense on Penix before he has established a rhythm.

The biggest question is which offense can make its quarterback’s job manageable.

Green Bay needs its protection and route timing to work together. Atlanta needs Robinson’s touches to create favorable situations for Penix, then needs Penix to convert those opportunities into sustained drives.

My lean is Green Bay at home, with its early run defense the strongest reason. But if Atlanta disrupts Love without blitzing heavily, the Falcons can keep this close enough for Penix’s return to matter late.

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