FQI Quarterback Rankings Entering Week 10: Burrow Leads as Dak, Allen Join Top Five

One week ago, the FQI top five had a pretty clear shape.

Joe Burrow was comfortably No. 1. Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud were right behind him. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye rounded out the official top five.

Week 9 kept the top three intact.

It also blew up the bottom half of the list.

Dak Prescott and Josh Allen are now in. Williams and Maye are out. And Burrow somehow managed to make an already commanding lead even larger.

This week’s rankings are based on the current FQI snapshot through Week 9, with the official qualification threshold now at 180 dropbacks.

If you missed last week’s breakdown, FQI — Full Press Quarterback Impact — is designed to answer a fairly simple question:

How well has the quarterback actually played?

The current FQI formula weights opponent-adjusted quarterback value at 50 percent, accuracy at 30 percent, then Consistency+ and Avoidance+ at 10 percent apiece. Creation is tracked separately to show how much a quarterback is generating beyond structure.

It is not an MVP ballot.

It is not a projection.

It is not trying to tell you which quarterback you should draft for the next 10 years.

It is measuring what has happened on the quarterback’s plays.

FQI Top Five Entering Week 10

1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals — 84.42 FQI

Last week: 81.77 FQI, No. 1
Change: +2.65 FQI
FQV: 84.25
Value Score: 96
Accuracy Score: 99
Consistency+: 88
Avoidance+: 80
Creation: 55
CPOE: +7.53

At this point, Joe Burrow is becoming annoying.

Not because he is doing anything wrong.

Because every week we look for some interesting flaw in the FQI profile and every week the answer is basically:

Yeah, he’s still ridiculously good.

Burrow entered Week 9 at 81.77.

He left it at 84.42.

His individual Week 9 game graded at 78.34 FQI, with a 95 Value score, 96 Accuracy and 95 Consistency+.

His CPOE for the game was an absurd +14.44.

That is not “he completed a bunch of easy throws.”

That is “he completed throws at a rate more than 14 percentage points above what the model expected based on the throws he attempted.”

His full-season accuracy score is now 99.

His full-season CPOE has climbed to +7.53.

His opponent-adjusted QB value sits at +0.324 per play.

The scary part is that Burrow’s profile actually became more complete.

His Consistency+ climbed from 79 to 88.

His Avoidance+ climbed from 73 to 80.

So the quarterback who was already creating elite value and completing difficult throws at an elite rate is now doing it with fewer stretches of volatility.

What changed? Somehow, the best profile got cleaner.

FQI takeaway: Burrow is not just No. 1. Right now, there is a fairly significant gap between him and everybody else.

2. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers — 72.36 FQI

Last week: 72.37 FQI, No. 2
Change: Essentially none
FQV: 61.99
Value Score: 93
Accuracy Score: 88
Consistency+: 93
Avoidance+: 26
Creation: 82
CPOE: +2.87

If Burrow was the big winner, Purdy was the guy who basically handed in the same report card.

His FQI moved from 72.37 to 72.36.

That’s not a typo.

We’re talking about a change of roughly one-hundredth of a point.

His Week 9 game came in at 61.16 FQI, which is very good but not the kind of performance that was going to meaningfully push a season-long score already sitting in the 70s.

The interesting part is how the profile underneath Purdy shifted.

His full-season Consistency+ jumped from 84 to 93.

His Avoidance+ improved from 13 to 26.

That is still the weak point, but it is less glaring than it was a week ago.

Against Las Vegas, Purdy generated a strong 0.315 QBV per play, but the opponent adjustment pulled that down because the matchup was favorable.

That is exactly what FQI is supposed to do.

It does not ignore the production.

It just refuses to pretend every 0.315 is created in the same environment.

What changed? Almost nothing in the headline number, but the week-to-week reliability underneath it improved.

FQI takeaway: Purdy remains the clear No. 2 qualified quarterback, even if Burrow is beginning to create daylight at the top.

3. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans — 65.23 FQI

Last week: 66.13 FQI, No. 3
Change: -0.90 FQI
FQV: 54.35
Value Score: 88
Accuracy Score: 66
Consistency+: 45
Avoidance+: 88
Creation: 69
CPOE: -0.39

Stroud is still third.

But his route to third looks a little different than it did last week.

His overall FQI slipped from 66.13 to 65.23, even though his per-play value actually remained strong.

His Week 9 game produced 0.369 QBV per play and graded at 57.63 FQI.

So why didn’t the season score rise?

Because value is only half the equation.

His Week 9 CPOE was slightly negative at -0.30.

His game-level Consistency+ was just 6.

His Avoidance+ was 32.

In other words, Stroud still generated plenty of useful quarterback value, but it arrived in a much messier package.

That has pulled his full-season Consistency+ down from 61 to 45.

His season Avoidance+ remains strong at 88, which is a major reason he has stayed comfortably in the top three.

This is a good example of why FQI is not just EPA with better branding.

A quarterback can create positive value and still get dinged because the process was less accurate, less stable or more mistake-prone than the raw value would suggest.

What changed? The value stayed healthy. The consistency did not.

FQI takeaway: Stroud is still clearly a top-three FQI quarterback, but the gap between him and Purdy has widened.

4. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys — 63.05 FQI

Last week: 64.05 FQI, No. 7 among qualified quarterbacks
Change: +3 spots
FQV: 55.05
Value Score: 85
Accuracy Score: 61
Consistency+: 47
Avoidance+: 77
Creation: 42
CPOE: -0.90

Dak Prescott moved up three spots.

His FQI score actually went down.

Welcome to rankings.

This is why looking at the number matters more than staring at the arrow beside the name.

Prescott was sitting at 64.05 last week.

He is at 63.05 now.

But Caleb Williams and Drake Maye both had rough Week 9 performances, and the leaderboard reshuffled around him.

Dak’s own Week 9 performance was complicated.

He generated 0.357 QBV per play and finished with an 86 Value score.

His CPOE was a respectable +1.33.

But his game-level Avoidance+ was 1.

One.

That means the productive plays were accompanied by exactly the kind of damaging negative events FQI is designed not to wave away.

Over the full season, though, Prescott’s profile remains much healthier.

His opponent-adjusted QB value is +0.222 per play.

His FQV is up to 55.05, which means he has accumulated a substantial amount of total quarterback value over a large workload.

His Avoidance+ for the season is still 77.

What changed? Dak did not suddenly explode into the top five. The players around him fell while his larger body of work held up.

FQI takeaway: Ranking movement and performance movement are not always the same thing.

5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills — 62.07 FQI

Last week: 64.39 FQI, No. 6
Change: +1 spot
FQV: 47.05
Value Score: 82
Accuracy Score: 77
Consistency+: 39
Avoidance+: 28
Creation: 99
CPOE: +0.52

Josh Allen moved into the top five after a game that actually lowered his FQI.

Again: rankings are relative.

Allen’s Week 9 game against Minnesota graded at 51.03 FQI.

That is not a great score.

But this is where opponent adjustment matters.

His raw QBV per play was just +0.020.

After accounting for Minnesota’s defense, his opponent-adjusted value rose to +0.140.

The adjustment was a massive +0.120.

FQI is basically saying:

“No, that was not an elite quarterback performance. But playing Minnesota is also not the same assignment as playing an average defense.”

That context kept the game from doing even more damage to Allen’s season-long profile.

The other reason Allen remains in this conversation is obvious:

Creation: 99.

Nobody in the qualified field has been better at producing value outside structure.

Allen remains the ultimate “something is breaking down and somehow this is still going to work” quarterback.

The weakness remains the same.

His Avoidance+ is only 28.

His Consistency+ is 39.

The spectacular plays keep him high.

The volatility keeps him from joining Burrow and Purdy at the top.

What changed? Allen’s score fell, but Caleb and Maye fell farther.

FQI takeaway: FQI respects the difficulty of the Minnesota matchup without pretending Allen played better than he did.

Who’s Out? Caleb Williams and Drake Maye Take the Week 9 Hit

This is where the week-over-week comparison gets interesting.

Last week, Caleb Williams was fourth.

Drake Maye was fifth.

Neither is in the top five anymore.

Drake Maye — 60.67 FQI

Maye dropped from fifth to sixth among qualified quarterbacks.

His Week 9 game against Green Bay graded at just 40.88 FQI.

His CPOE was -7.89.

His competitive QBV per play was -0.281.

That is a brutal combination for a metric where accuracy and value make up 80 percent of the final score.

The full-season profile still has strong accuracy and creation marks, but Week 9 pulled the season FQI from 65.29 to 60.67.

Caleb Williams — 60.46 FQI

Williams took an even larger tumble, from fourth to eighth among qualified quarterbacks.

His Week 9 FQI came in at 45.30.

His raw QBV per play was -0.159.

His CPOE was -4.43.

FQI gave him a huge opponent adjustment of +0.120, acknowledging the difficulty of the matchup.

It still was not enough to turn the game into a positive performance.

Williams’ season FQI fell from 65.57 to 60.46.

One rough week does not erase the strong value and accuracy he had produced earlier in the season.

It does show why his extremely low Consistency+ score last week was worth paying attention to.

What About Lamar Jackson and Drew Lock?

The raw FQI dataset currently shows Lamar Jackson at 77.11 and Drew Lock at 72.51.

Neither qualifies for the official leaderboard.

Jackson has 112 dropbacks.

Lock has 80.

The official Week 9 threshold is 180 dropbacks.

That distinction is important.

FQI will calculate a score once a quarterback reaches the minimum viewable sample, but the official leaderboard requires a much larger workload before treating that player like a full-season qualifier.

That is why neither Jackson nor Lock appears in this top five.

You can read the full qualification policy in the FQI methodology and FAQ.

What the Week 10 FQI Top Five Tells Us

There are two different kinds of movement happening here.

Joe Burrow actually improved.

He widened the gap between himself and the field with another high-level game.

Brock Purdy essentially stayed where he was.

C.J. Stroud slipped slightly but remained third.

Dak Prescott and Josh Allen moved into the top five without posting higher season FQI scores than they had a week ago.

They moved because the leaderboard around them changed.

That distinction matters.

FQI is not designed to manufacture weekly drama.

Sometimes a quarterback rises because he played brilliantly.

Sometimes he rises because somebody ahead of him had a bad Sunday.

Sometimes the score barely moves at all.

The goal is not to make the rankings exciting.

The goal is to make them explainable.

And entering Week 10, the explanation at the very top remains extremely simple.

Joe Burrow is playing quarterback better than anybody else in the qualified field.

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