Quarterback rankings usually turn into the same argument.
Who has the most touchdowns? Who has the best record? Who threw the prettiest pass on Sunday night? Who is the MVP favorite? And, eventually, somebody starts yelling about wins.
FQI — Full Press Quarterback Impact is trying to answer a slightly different question:
How well has the quarterback actually played?
FQI evaluates quarterback performance play by play, with the largest emphasis on value created and accuracy. The current formula is weighted 50 percent toward opponent-adjusted quarterback value, 30 percent toward completion percentage over expectation, then 10 percent each toward consistency and avoidance of major negative plays.
In simpler terms: Did you create value? Were you accurate relative to the difficulty of the throws? Did you do it consistently? And did you avoid the plays that murder drives?
FQI also replaces automatic credit for all yards after the catch with expected YAC, so a quarterback does not get the entire statistical reward because his receiver caught a five-yard pass and broke three tackles for 60.
It is not supposed to be a scouting grade, MVP ballot or prediction of who will be best next week.
It is a measurement of what has happened.
And through Week 8, nobody has done it better than Joe Burrow.
One important note before the rankings: Lamar Jackson‘s raw 77.12 FQI would rank second overall, but he has only 112 dropbacks and does not meet the official Week 8 qualification threshold of 160. FQI’s qualification rules intentionally keep smaller samples from being treated the same as full-season workloads. You can read more about that in the FQI methodology and FAQ.
1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals — 81.77 FQI
Grade: Exceptional
Dropbacks: 290
FQV: 67.85
Value Score: 99
Accuracy Score: 99
Consistency+: 79
Avoidance+: 73
Creation: 50
CPOE: +6.78
There really isn’t a complicated explanation here.
Joe Burrow is No. 1 because the metric has almost nothing meaningful to complain about.
His 99 Value score says he has been among the very best quarterbacks in football at turning his individual plays into expected-point value.
His 99 Accuracy score says essentially the same thing from another direction.
Burrow isn’t just completing passes. He’s completing throws at a rate 6.78 percentage points above expectation, which is absurd when paired with this level of offensive production.
His opponent-adjusted QB value sits at +0.301 per play.
That’s the number at the heart of the ranking.
And FQI isn’t being fooled by a few giant games against bad teams, either. Burrow’s 79 Consistency+ score says the value is arriving with a relatively steady supply of successful plays.
Even his Avoidance+ score is a strong 73.
There is no glaring red warning light.
That’s rare.
The normal quarterback argument forces you to choose between the guy producing huge numbers and the guy supposedly “playing the position correctly.”
Right now, FQI’s answer is:
Why choose?
Burrow has been both.
What FQI likes most: Everything.
That’s not very analytical, but sometimes the numbers save us some time.
2. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers — 72.37 FQI
Grade: Elite
Dropbacks: 232
FQV: 51.91
Value Score: 96
Accuracy Score: 90
Consistency+: 84
Avoidance+: 13
Creation: 81
CPOE: +3.03
Brock Purdy might have the most interesting profile in the top five.
Because almost everything is elite.
And then there is one gigantic flashing light.
Purdy owns a 96 Value score, 90 Accuracy, 84 Consistency+ and an 81 Creation score.
That’s an excellent quarterback season.
His opponent-adjusted value is +0.282 per play, trailing only Burrow among the officially qualified quarterbacks in this group.
Purdy is also completing passes more than three percentage points above expectation.
So, no, FQI does not think he’s simply standing behind Kyle Shanahan while somebody presses the correct buttons for him.
He is creating legitimate quarterback value.
Then we get to:
Avoidance+: 13.
That’s the flaw.
Avoidance+ measures how often a quarterback avoids particularly damaging negative-value plays relative to what would normally be expected from somebody producing his overall level of value.
Purdy has simply let too many of those plays sneak into an otherwise outstanding season.
That’s the difference between his 72.37 and Burrow sitting way up at 81.77.
Purdy is producing like an elite quarterback.
Burrow is producing like an elite quarterback without as many potholes along the way.
What FQI likes most: Purdy combines efficiency with creation.
What keeps him from No. 1: Too many drive-killing mistakes relative to the rest of his profile.
3. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans — 66.13 FQI
Grade: Very Good
Dropbacks: 267
FQV: 40.76
Value Score: 81
Accuracy Score: 70
Consistency+: 61
Avoidance+: 96
Creation: 67
CPOE: -0.40
C.J. Stroud is almost the inverse of Purdy.
Purdy’s profile screams explosiveness and efficiency with occasional disasters.
Stroud’s says:
You’re going to have to pry the football away from me.
His 96 Avoidance+ score is the centerpiece.
Only a handful of quarterbacks have done a better job avoiding the kinds of plays that destroy possessions.
Interceptions matter here, but Avoidance+ isn’t simply an interception statistic. It looks at all quarterback-attributed plays that lose at least one expected point.
Bad sacks.
Turnovers.
Other major negative plays.
Stroud has been exceptionally good at keeping those out of his game.
His 81 Value score is still strong enough to keep him comfortably in the top five.
The interesting part is accuracy.
His raw CPOE is minus-0.40, basically hovering around expectation rather than dramatically beating it.
So FQI isn’t ranking Stroud third because he has been some surgical accuracy machine.
It’s ranking him third because he generates good value, creates enough outside structure and almost never lights a possession on fire.
There is something to be said for that.
Quarterback play does not always need to be spectacular.
Sometimes the most valuable thing you can do is make sure your team gets another snap.
What FQI likes most: Stroud’s ability to eliminate catastrophic plays.
What separates him from Burrow and Purdy: The accuracy profile has been solid rather than dominant.
4. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears — 65.57 FQI
Grade: Very Good
Dropbacks: 186
FQV: 25.11
Value Score: 87
Accuracy Score: 87
Consistency+: 4
Avoidance+: 59
Creation: 44
CPOE: +2.44
Welcome to the strangest top-five quarterback profile.
Caleb Williams has an 87 Value score.
He has an 87 Accuracy score.
And he has a Consistency+ score of four.
Four.
Not 40.
Four.
That sounds contradictory until you understand what FQI is measuring.
Williams has created plenty of value when the offense has worked. He’s also been accurate, completing passes 2.44 percentage points above expectation.
His raw quarterback value is +0.193 per play.
After accounting for opponent strength, it jumps all the way to +0.231.
That is important.
Williams has received one of the more meaningful opponent adjustments among the top quarterbacks because FQI believes the defenses he has faced have suppressed quarterback production more than average.
So the quality has absolutely been there.
The consistency has not.
His four in Consistency+ means the positive plays are arriving in a much less steady pattern than you would expect from somebody generating this much overall value.
In football terms:
There are stretches where Caleb Williams looks like one of the five best quarterbacks in the league.
There are also stretches where you’re wondering where the offense went.
FQI is comfortable holding both ideas at the same time.
That is probably one of the most useful things the metric can do.
What FQI likes most: High-end value and accuracy against a difficult opponent profile.
What keeps the evaluation complicated: Nobody in this top five has been remotely as inconsistent.
5. Drake Maye, New England Patriots — 65.29 FQI
Grade: Very Good
Dropbacks: 276
FQV: 44.59
Value Score: 84
Accuracy Score: 93
Consistency+: 24
Avoidance+: 16
Creation: 87
CPOE: +3.16
And now we arrive at the quarterback who might generate the most debate.
Drake Maye is only 0.28 FQI points behind Caleb Williams.
Statistically, that difference is basically asking us not to start a bar fight over fourth and fifth place.
Maye’s 93 Accuracy score is elite.
His +3.16 CPOE backs it up.
He has an 84 Value score and an 87 Creation score, which tells us the quarterback is producing beyond simply operating the structure of the passing offense.
When the play breaks down, Maye can still create something.
That has become one of the defining features of his game.
But FQI also highlights the thing that has periodically made Patriots fans lose their minds:
The negative plays.
Maye has just a 16 Avoidance+ score.
His Consistency+ is only 24.
That combination explains why somebody who can look completely unstoppable for stretches doesn’t rank even higher.
When Maye is good, he is really good.
The issue is that too many possessions still include a play that swings the other direction.
His FQV is already 44.59, considerably higher than Williams’ 25.11, because Maye has handled a larger workload and accumulated more total quarterback value.
That’s an important reminder about the difference between FQI and FQV.
FQI asks how good the quarterback’s play has been on a rate basis.
FQV asks how much total value he has accumulated.
Maye’s fifth-place FQI and strong FQV tell a fairly coherent story:
The Patriots are getting a lot of high-end quarterback football.
They are also still occasionally paying the Drake Maye chaos tax.
What FQI likes most: Accuracy and creation.
What is holding him back: Consistency and avoidance.
Clean those up and there is absolutely nothing preventing Maye from pushing toward the very top of this leaderboard.
Wait — Where Is Lamar Jackson?
This is actually a perfect opportunity to explain how FQI qualification works.
Jackson has a 77.12 FQI through his limited action.
That would rank second behind Burrow.
He also has only 112 dropbacks.
The official qualification threshold entering Week 9 is 160.
So Jackson appears in the underlying FQI dataset because there is enough information to calculate his performance, but he does not qualify for the official leaderboard yet.
That’s intentional.
A quarterback can be incredible over 100 plays.
He can also see that number move dramatically over the next 100.
FQI wants enough volume before treating that performance like a full-season leaderboard entry.
If Jackson eventually reaches the threshold while maintaining anything close to a 77 FQI, then we’ll have a much more interesting conversation.
Just Outside the Top Five
The line after Maye is extremely tight.
Josh Allen — 64.39 FQI
Allen owns a 99 Creation score, the best mark on the board, and a 90 Value score. Accuracy, consistency and avoidance are the things keeping him outside the top five.
Dak Prescott — 64.05 FQI
Dak’s calling card has been avoiding disasters. His 90 Avoidance+ is outstanding, although his accuracy profile has not been as strong as the quarterbacks ahead of him.
That means the difference between fourth and seventh is less than two FQI points.
These are not giant gaps.
They are different quarterback profiles living in roughly the same performance neighborhood.
What the FQI Top Five Actually Tells Us
The fun part of FQI isn’t that it produces another quarterback ranking.
We already have plenty of those.
The useful part is understanding why the quarterbacks are ranked where they are.
Joe Burrow is first because he currently has almost the complete package: elite value, elite accuracy, good consistency and strong avoidance.
Brock Purdy is producing elite value but giving some of it back through damaging negative plays.
C.J. Stroud is not dominating the accuracy component, but he has been remarkably good at keeping drives alive.
Caleb Williams has produced top-level value in a difficult environment, but his performance has been wildly uneven.
Drake Maye combines elite accuracy and creation with the kind of volatility that still keeps Patriots fans gripping the armrest.
Five quarterbacks.
Five completely different ways of getting there.
And that’s really the point.
FQI isn’t designed to tell us which quarterback has the best reputation, the most wins or the coolest highlight reel.
It’s trying to tell us what happened when the quarterback was actually responsible for the play.
Through eight weeks, nobody has done that better than Joe Burrow.
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